Admission: I'm not sure I like Cute

[Adding to the movie review series...haven't been for weeks due to travel and the low quality of what's out there -- no one has convinced me to spend my entertainment $ on Oz]

I have a friend named Hyser who is famous for his famous sayings.  One, known as the "Hyser theory," says the more a movie is advertised, the worse it will be.  You know what I mean: you haven't heard of a movie and then you hear a little buzz, go see it, and it turns out to be surprisingly good.  Like Silver Linings or even the recent surprise Side Effects.  

Admission, you know, the one starring the overexposed Tina Fey and the always appealing Paul Ruud, has gotten lots of press.  I remember the first preview I saw of it in the fall.  It looked pretty dumb.  Not a very appealing premise (sorry Paul).

But it was better than the previews indicated, though hardly the best movie Ruud's ever made (The Shape of Things or I Love You, Man would be my top Ruud roles).

It wasn't so funny as it was cute. 

You know, Paul Ruud's rustic, itinerant hippie type acting au natural to Fey's uptight college admission counselor role.  

The whole "The guy who dated my roommate in college happens on my adopted son" thing was too much.

The whole "My friend in Uganda was killed in a car crash, so I adopted her 2-year-old son" thing was too cute, too.  

The rivalry with Gloria Reuben is just...well, too cute.

The shots of the Princeton singers, the frat parties, the buildings...gives it a tone.  Not quite "cute," -- okay, it's "cute."

In the end, it feels like a romantic comedy.  Ruud & Fey end up together.  Who knew?  Just all of us.

Okay, this is making it sound "bad."  It's not.  It's just not wildly original.  Pleasant entertainment and you root for Ruud and Fey, but it's hardly memorable.  Even with a calf delivery scene. 

It's probably as good, if not better, than the rest that's out there. 

Sunday: Final to Final Four

It's the last day to determine the Final Four.

I hope the games are better than yesterday's.

Eventhough Ohio St got within striking distance late, it wasn't a tight game.

And Syracuse rocked Marquette.  They shot less than 20% from the floor.  Scored in the 30s?  Yes, Colin Cowherd tweeted "Score in the 30s. I was waiting for Gene Hackman to call a timeout."  Funny.  

Let's hope today's 1 v. 2, 3 v. 4 matchups get us better games.

My breakdown:

Like Rick Pitino, I worry about Duke's two bigs being too mobile and good at shooting.  They've been on.  And will Seth Curry kill the zone?  Does his having 29 mean a Duke wins?

On the other hand, I don't think Duke has an answer to either Smith or Silva.  Maybe they turn it over a lot and Louisville wins in the transition game.  

In game one, it's Michigan v. Florida.  As I said yesterday, I've not seen them play a full game yet, so it's hard to gauge the Gators.  It may be McGary v. Murphy.  But Burke & Hardaway might be too much for Florida to handle.  Might.

I'd love wins by Wolverines & Cards.  Gators winning means I probably lose my bracket (I'm still in first).  

Let's hope for some quality games.  Yeah rah. 

And baseball season starts tomorrow!

Saturday Elite 8 & UCLA & Alford

I'm still trying to recover from the Michigan comeback against Kansas.  Yes, I thought it was over, too. Many times.  But the yellow-clads didn't and then Trey Burke poured in a couple treys and they were in overtime and in shell shock.  Big win.  Big for my bracket (yes, Dbrolaw and I had Michigan).

The Louisville game was more interesting than I wanted it to be.  But the Cardinals (my championship pick) had enough to beat Oregon, who, of course, looked good in their green outfits.  Tough beating the Green Lantern, times five.

The Duke game was all Duke in the second half.  Michigan State's guards didn't play well in the second half and that cost them.  So did Nix sitting the bench in foul trouble.  But Duke played well -- moved the ball well & shot free throws well.  I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't give Louisville all they can handle.

Florida beat Gulf Coast badly.  Not sure what to make of the game or the performance (hey, I was groggy at 12:30 a.m. and the fourth game), but there you have it: the Gators in the Elite Eight again.

I think they have the edge on Michigan, but the boys in yellow seem on a mission.

Today?

I need Marquette to win.  But the Syracuse zone looked so good against Indiana -- it's hard to believe it'll crack enough today.  Marquette beat them in Milwaukee in February, but it's a different 'Cuse team now.  I'd love to see the Rainbow Warriors...errr, Golden Eagles...win, but it'll be tough.

Game 2, Ohio State plays against a much lower seeded team, having barely gotten through the last two games, I'm not counting on the Buckeyes blowing it open.   If the Wichita big guys play well, it could be a surprise 9 seed in the FF.  But they'll have to get past Craft and the Buckeye guards.

UCLA

Earlier in the week, I got into a Twitter thread over whether UCLA was a Top Six program for a coach.  I said no.  We all wanted to see who they ended up with.

Steve Alford.

It's not a bad hire.  It's not Shaka Smart or Brad Stevens, the young "we-wants" in every search.  But Alford's done a good job at three straight programs and this year's New Mexico team was considerably better than the UCLA one.  Probably true the last several years.

Which this give some boost to the UCLA program?

A little.  Not much.

It confirms my analysis of UCLA just being a good power conference school, not one of the jobs you leave anywhere to get.  Albuquerque isn't anywhere.  It's a job an elite coach is probably leaving (sorry NM and Mountain West).   And it wasn't clear, like Iowa, Alford isn't leaving just as his time is running out -- losing in the first round of the tournament with a 3 seed is the type of thing that gets questions asked. 

I stick to my Twitter thought -- it's not a top six program.  If it was, Stevens or Smart would be there. 

Good Friday: Last night, Tonight, & the Gottlieb Factor

It's day two of the Sweet 16 (#Sweet16) of the Tournament.

And it should be fun.

A recap of last night:

Marquette pounded Miami like the red-headed stepchild & won by "only" 10 (Vern Lundquist said that final score wasn't indicative of the game and it wasn't).  They neutralized Shane Larkin, cut to the basket well, and Miami shot poorly.

It wasn't a particularly good game.

Neither was game 2 in that bracket: IU & Syracuse.  IU never seemed prepared to attack the fabled 'Cuse 2-3 zone, turned it over a lot (11 in the 1st half), shot poorly, and just plain got beat.  Good season, but ended with a thud.  I said in y'day's blog that 'Cuse was playing well these last three weeks.

The second game out West wasn't any good, either, with Wichita State putting the shock on LaSalle.  In the Big v. Small matchup, big won.  They went inside a lot, shot well from outside, and ate them up on the boards.  And, of course, LaSalle, like Miami and IU, shot poorly and turned it over too much.  At one point Galloway was O fer 7 or 8...not the way to win that kind of game.

The best game was Ohio St-Arizona.  Doug Gottlieb picked Arizona to go to Final Four on his show Wednesday night.  KOD.  Ohio St. milked the clock at the end of another tie game and buried the killer trey.

To tonight:

Duke-Michigan St. is a great matchup.  2 vs 3.  I heard all morning that the one-on-ones match up well, but I don't think so. I think Plumley and Kelley are clearly better players than Nix and Paine.  I'm not sure it'll show tonight, but I think that's the case.  The question is can Duke's guards match up with MSU's?  Will Curry get his points?  Duke doesn't like physical games -- hasn't for a long time, if ever -- and it'll probably be a game like the Marquette one last night -- half court with lots of bodies bouncing.

If MSU can shoot a little, they win.

Louisville-Oregon.  People keep saying Oregon shouldn't be a 12 seed.  Then they should be a 6, like their regular season champ UCLA or Arizona?  It still makes it a 1-6 game. I like Louisville.  They are double-digit favorites.  Biggest shock of the #Sweet16 if they lose.

In the other bracket, my bracket buster is Michigan-Kansas.  A nice 1 v. 4 game.  I've never been convinced Kansas was a 1 & I thought Michigan deserved better than a 4.  I think Burke shows what quality guard play looks like, like he did against VCU, and Kansas has no answer on the perimeter.  Withey might be the difference.   I hope not.

Then there's the Florida championship game.  The Gators went to Elite Eight last year and have most everyone back.  I think whoever comes out of other side of this beats them Sunday, but I'd be mildly surprised to see Gulf Coast, double digit 'dogs, win again.  They don't have the depth and it's not clear they can consistently run a half court offense.  Jay Bilas thinks they have a better chance than Oregon of the upset.

And for Doug Gottlieb -- he says on last night's pre game show Miami is going to pound Marquette.  He says Wednesday Arizona is going to win next two games.  He's way wrong.  And then he makes the "white guy" crack, which Charles Barkley is right about, it's just a dumb joke...but dumb seems to be Gottlieb's current mode.  I'm sure it'd be wrong, but right now I hope he picks counter to everything in my bracket.  He's got KOD going big-time.  KOD.

Go Wolverines.  Go Cardinals.  See y'all tomorrah

March Madness Regional Weekend: Brackets UP!

Yes, readers, it's at long last time for the second weekend's NCAA tournament games.  And this opener is a doozy: Marquette & Miami.  M&M.  2 vs 3.

This is important to a lot of brackets.  Five people in my biggest group, which would be for money if that was legal, have Miami winning it all.  No one has Marquette.

I have Marquette in the Championship game.

The loss of Miami's top rebounder, Johnson, this week probably means something.   You'd need Karnac or Kreskin to tell you what, though, till we see the game.

It should be a great game.

The other game in the East Regional is good, too: a matchup of the 1987 championship game between Indiana and Syracuse.  Its a 1 vs. 4 game.

IU has not been playing well.  Dbrolaw & I have noticed this phenomenon going back to Feb. 19 game with Michigan St.

Syracuse has been playing well since a late season collapse.  They played well in the Big East tourney, then last weekend.  IU struggled against Temple.

Sports Illustrated has IU surviving this regional.  I don't.

It'll be fun.

The other regional is fun but not loaded with seeded teams.  Ohio St, the 2, is by far the best seed left, playing Arizona, the 6, tonight, then LaSalle, the 13, plays Wichita St, the 9, play.  Go LaSalle.

Both are interesting match ups -- strength v. weakness.  Arizona has no point guard, per se.  Ohio St. has Aaron Craft.   LaSalle plays four guards and speed; W State is a bunch of behemoths and one guard.  Who wins?

I had Ohio St going to Final Four.  So does SI.  Means Arizona will probably win. (call it optimism)

Enjoy the games...tomorrow will be interesting, too.

Weekend Madness: Halfway Analysis

Whew!  Marquette won.  My bracket is saved (reminder, I have them in national championship game); although, as a Hoosier, I regret Butler's defeat.  Wish they were in different bracket (see LaSalle-Ole Miss game), but that's not the way it works.

Yesterday

Let's admit it, NCAA & CBS "family of networks," yesterday was not a great viewing day.  Here's the list: Michigan by 25, Michigan State by 22, Louisville by 26, Arizona by 23, even Oregon by 17.  Not exactly glued to TV games.

Then there was the classic that was Butler-Marquette.  Iffy calls; gutsy plays; free throw shooting; steals; and coaches working the strategy.  Great stuff.  The better team won, but they weren't better by much.  How much farther will the Warriors go?  Can they beat Miami, the likely next opponent?  I have it that way in my bracket, but we'll see.

The Gonzaga game was good, too, if you switched over after the Butler-Marquette game.  What we learned is that the Zags aren't one of the premier squads in the country; given their 9 week run of wins, they may have deserved their seeding (or a bit less), but winning 6 straight against NCAA tournament teams just was beyond them.  

Syracuse survived.  Will they win next week?  I don't see it happening.

Quote of the day:  Charles Barkley, talking about either VCU or Georgetown (or both) -- "these great defensive teams turn out not to play such good offense.  If they can't turn you over and run, then they have no offense."  Makes me worry about Ohio St. 

Today

CBS is running the games on the same heavy-on-the-prime-time schedule, with single games at noon and two, five-thirty, then all over from 7.  We'll all be groggy tomorrow morning if we are up (and don't have a snow day) after the Duke-Creighton game.  And that should be a good game -- probably as good as the Syracuse-Cal nightcap last night.

As for MY bracket watch, the big game is the Florida-Minn contest at 6:10 on TNT.  Why?  Half of my competitors have someone beating Florida; I have them winning.  In other words, there are points to be gained.

Everyone has Ohio St, then IU, Kansas, Miami and Duke.  No one foresaw either LaSalle or Ole Miss -- okay, one person has Ole Miss winning today.  San Diego St-Florida Gulf Coast?  Who's got that?  

As for LaSalle, who this blog has watched as it bubbled around, today's game is tricky.  Ole Miss scores about 7 a game more, and rebounds better.  But LaSalle is a better shooting team.  Which is the better league -- A10 or SEC?  It's a 12-13 game.  And they have "only" #9 seed Wichita State waiting on them.  Big game.  But hard to call.  Go Explorers.

So, it's not a bracket busting day...until you look at the long view.

As I said in yesterday's blog, next weekend is where brackets are won.  Having as many teams left next weekend is tantamount; getting there with all four Final Four picks puts you in front of the pack.  

On that note, I say "go Ohio State," (though it costs me $5) as they are my last Final Four team not in the Sweet Sixteen yet.  

Happy viewing...and in the mid-Atlantic, good luck with overnight snow so you get to get your sleep after the Duke-Creighton game. 

Bracketology One Week Out

This weekend's results give us some shape to the forthcoming NCAA tournament, which looks like as wide-open a bracket as we've seen for awhile.  Today one pundit claimed there were 15 teams that could run the 6-game table and end up national champs.  Maybe.

But here's our "top line" (four one seeds), confirmed by the weekend's games:  Gonzaga, Duke, IU, & Louisville.

IU's one-point win at Michigan today showed something, if just grit.  Michigan's record at home was awesome; IU hadn't played particularly well the last two weeks.  To squeeze out a big win matters.  Michigan looks like a good 2 or maybe even a very high 3, but IU is the class of the Big Ten, unless they lose Friday in the tourney.

Duke's tearing apart of a hot Tar Heel team says something.  Maybe the ACC isn't top-notch this year, but how is, other than the Big 10?  The Big 12 is good, but then Kansas loses to Baylor.  Uh huh.  The Big East is good, but are they deeper than Louisville, Georgetown and...Marquette.  Even if Georgetown is for real.

Thus Gonzaga's high status.

And no one is too excited about the SEC.

Kentucky won Saturday.  It probably puts them in the tourney.

Virginia beat Maryland in overtime today.  Good-bye Terps.

Temple beat VCU, the best team in their conference, and that's the win Temple needs to be in.

LaSalle is in.

Who's that leave?

We are on Valpo watch.  And Minnesota death-watch.  If the Gophers can't beat Purdue on Thursday, their chances of making the field slide, especially if more teams like Liberty win the conference tournaments.

More later this week.

Congrats to IU & Dbrolaws everywhere...it's been a long time since you've held the Big 10 trophy.

Bracketology Brief Before the Last weekend

As a weekend of big games is upon us, I wanted to talk about top seeds & bubbles before the action got going big-time.

After Miami's loss this week, it's Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville & IU in the top slots.  But IU isn't playing well and I'd be tempted to say this slot is up to who wins the Michigan-IU game Sunday.

On the other end, Kentucky is playing Florida now.  They probably need to win to get in.

Purdue is playing Minnesota.  A Minnesota loss after Wednesday's loss to Nebraska wouldn't help, though Lunardi has them a 9 seed.

On our other "watches" -- LaSalle seems safe, but Temple and Virginia (which I'm told isn't really "local") are on the bubble.

Temple has VCU tomorrow in a tough game.  A win in that will seal them in.

Virginia and Maryland play each other tomorrow.  We've been watching both.  At 20-9 and 20-10, respectively, and the win helps the winner (of course). Right now Virginia is in and Maryland on the outside of the bubble.  There are some great games, but this one has a lot of meaning for the combatants.

We'll be back on the watch tomorrow evening.

Go Purdue!

Bubble watch (& Gotham Stakes)

Two weeks from tonight -- Selection Sunday!

Where are we on our brackets and bubbles?

First, I have to open with this -- Purdue for a bid?  They beat Wisconsin in Madison today.  Handily.  Isn't that good enough?

Of course not.  But I had to put it out there.

Let's look at top seeds -- it was a bad week for my four.  Indiana, Duke and Miami all lost.

I'm going to stick with the one who didn't lose -- Louisville.  Every seems to be jumping on the Georgetown bandwagon, and, yes, they are hot.  But Louisville will beat them in the Big East tournament.  Or not play them.  Georgetown, as has been their habit for years, goes cold on offense too much.

I'm keeping IU, even with the loss at Minnesota.

I'm picking up Gonzaga.

And sticking with Miami.  A two point loss at Duke doesn't bother me.  Duke's loss at Virginia on Thursday does.

Although it does help Virginia, who we've been watching.

We've also been watching Temple and LaSalle, who look safely inside the bubble.  Maybe one will get to play in Philly opening weekend.

Villanova is right now designated to play the play-in game v. Kentucky, who lost yesterday and maybe shouldn't make the tournament.  Their loss today at Pitt doesn't hurt, but it was a chance to help.  They didn't help.

Our other watchee is Maryland.  The loss on Wednesday to Georgia Tech hurts; they shouldn't have lost that game.  They finish with North Carolina (not your father's big blue) and UVA, winners over Duke last week.  Two wins might push the Terps into field.  Might...

Our other watchee is Valpo.  Still one game up in the Horizon.  But no one seems to think there are two bids out of the conference & the Crusaders are seeded 13 or 14 in the proposed brackets.  They aren't in till they have the automatic bid.  Or not.

Now, about yesterday at the Gotham.

If you followed this blog, you would not have bet successfully yesterday.  None of my "longish shots" won in 11 races, and Overanalyze, who seemed to stumble or step sideways at the top of the stretch and  lose his mo, hurt the Gotham picks.

But I hedged some and had Vyjack in a couple of exotics that paid poorly, but put me ahead for the day.

It was a day of favorites winning -- so much so the three day Pick 6 pool ended up paying less than $5,000.  It's not like Vyjack was a long shot.  Though the exotic tickets with the other longshots down the ticket were worth having.

Now we look to the Wood.  The post-race interviews have both Vyjack and West Hills Giant returning.  We'll see if Overanalyze can return, too.  Along with several other interesting imports.

Looks like a great race, just four weeks ahead of the Derby.

Pick 6's for March 6 @ Big A & Gulfstream

So, here are your Gotham, P6 and value picks for Saturday, March 2.  Those of you who win with those, please send to this blog my 10% finder's fee.

Let's start with the simple task of getting a wager down on Gulfstream's $.10 Pick Six (6-11), starting at 3:35 Saturday.

2/10-9/8-2-2-12-7/8

I tried to do something other than go one deep three times, but the numbers didn't indicate more.  That's an easy

2*2*1*1*1*2=8 = $.80.

Now for the Gotham:

I'm going for some value and go $1 on 11-3.  I believe in Overanalyze and think Escapefromreality might sneak second.

But for the trifecta, I'm going 11 with 7/3 (hedging my exacta), then 7/3/6/9, which gets you this --

1*2*4=$8.

For our Pick 6, I'm going to go double anchor and go long on the 11th.  I like Overanalyze in the Gotham (10th race) as one anchor; then Impatient Investor #1A in the 8th.  That leaves us this series --

1/6-4/8-1A-2/10-11-1/6/7.

That's  2*2*1*2*1*3=$24.

That's your winner.  Bet it!

As for the rest of the day, here are my value picks in the first five.  I'm hunting for value here, not winners -- I won't touch anything that's not more than 2:1.

1) #4 - Six Flings
2) #10 - Cameron Canyon
3) #4 - Ms True Way
4) #3 - Irish Lion
5) #2 - Sailmate
6) #6 - Sea to Sky
7) #8 - Sisterly Love
8) #2 - Sneaky Freud
9) #10 - Smash
10) #3 - Escapefromreality
11) #6 - Tycoon Cat.

They may not all win, but, based on morning line, when they do, they'll pay nicely.  Enjoy!

Today (Mar 1) at the Big A: Pick 6

The day before the big pilgrimage to the Big A (Aqueduct) and yesterday no one nailed the Pick 6!  The carryover is $27,000 and change; cha-ching!

So, here's a crack at getting some serious change --

Starting with 4th race (set for 2:22 post time):

#6 - Funny Money

#3 - Agualinda & #5 - Dissension

#4 - Well Kept & #5 - Hot Roots (1A was my original here, but scratched this morning)

#1 - Burned Bridges & #6 - Late Starter

#5 - Mineswept & #7 - Isntlovejustgrand

#2 - Bounty Pink   & #6 Madre D...

Good luck.

Later I'll be back with similar pick for tomorrow's Gotham P6 and Gulfstream P6, too.

Happy racin'