Weary readers,
I have to admit to being disappointed with last week's "action" (in terms of confidence picking) in the Divisional Round. It's a commonplace that Wild Card Weekend is the closest one, and this turned out to be true, with great games in Philly, Indy, & Green Bay.
The spreads in the Div Round were wide -- more than a touchdown to start in 3 of 4 games. The Niners-Panthers were pick 'em by some lines at some points, but in my playoff confidence group, only one person put points on the Panthers. Not exactly wide divergence. Lots of people in my pool (including me, JG, and the famed Dbrolaw) picked every game right last weekend. Ho hum. Not a lot of separation and makes for tough strategy going into the penultimate weekend.
I have 9,6, & 1 left to play.
This week, unlike last, I've already gotten "Skittles" -- you know, the rainbow of opinion. The Seahawks are about a FG fav and the Broncos almost a TD (depending on the line and movement). Interestingly, the over/under on 'Chickens game is 40ish, Broncos is 55ish. Two different kinds of games.
But I've heard and read experts picking the dog to win -- in short, the Niners are the better team (see wideouts and TE) & in the AFC game, there's all this MOJO -- Peyton doesn't win enough in playoffs and Brady and Belichick do.
If I was in first place, I'd put my 9 & 6 on the Seahawks and Broncos, in that order.
But I'm not. I need at least one game where I pick differently than those above me (I'm currently in 6th, 8 points behind, but with more left than most) and win to jump up.
So, on Tuesday, I'm tempted to go dog-dog. It's not a horrid pick. No one thinks BOTH favs will win, necessarily (it just rarely works that way and it'd be the two 1 seeds making the Super Bowl -- look up how often THAT happens), so a risk is worth taking.
Knowing the famed Dbrolaw (which I'm not) caveat: when trying to find the upset, if you pick wrong, that means you got two games wrong, not one (the upset you missed and the upset you picked incorrectly). So, it's all or nothing.
Of course, I could save the 9 for the Super Bowl -- thinking of the combinations, which game would you want to weigh so heavily? -- but that's probably crazy.
Today, I'm on Pats 9, Niners 6 (it's the bigger bang)...but ask me again Sunday morning. :)
