Given my current schedule, I watch a fair amount of baseball, listen to MLB XM radio, and watch/listen to enough ESPN to have a fair idea of what's going on in Major League Baseball.
So, what's going on in Major League Baseball?
Why aren't more teams "sellers"?
The Padres and the Cubs have sold. Huston Street and Chad Headley and Jeff Samardzija were hot commodities, quality players with value, and they've been moved.
But there are a handful of teams that seem to be questioning whether they should sell.
Caveats: I'm not saying give guys away. Don't make the deal the Padres made for Headley (which looks like a dump, not a real value for value trade). But take calls, and, even, make some. Say, "I would move X for Y" and see if you can make your team -- next year or the year after -- better.
Next, one of the pundits I respect says trading is about self-assessment first. Honest self-assessment is needed here. The Rays have been hot. But do they have the every day lineup to make up 8 games on the Orioles? No. Do they have pieces people would want? Yes.
Finally, I'm not proposing deals, a la Jim Bowden on ESPN. I'm just saying STOP acting like you have a team that you don't have and that you aren't interested. Be interested in a trade. Be very interested.
With that said:
Let's start with the TB Rays. If you have been watching the standings, they have gone from 18 games under .500 six weeks ago to "only" 5 under now, and "only" 8 games back.
Are they catching the Orioles, who seem likely to win the division? No. Are they catching the Mariners for the last one-game playoff spot? No. There are too many bodies ahead of them. The people who do odds on these things have them like a 6-8% chance for the division.
Slim.
So, trade David Price. Go ahead, do it.
Then the Red Sox. Same division as Rays, worse odds.
Forget winning this year. You won last year in a magical year; this year the magic is gone.
Trouble is, the Red Sox have no one to trade. Jake Peavy? Right now he looks about out of gas -- a 4th or 5th starter. You aren't get a Samardzija package of prospects for him.
To the National League.
The team that keeps talking like they aren't ready to "sell" are the Phillies.
Are you kidding me?!?!?!? Those oddsmakers put the Phillies chances at less than 1%. Yes, worse than 1 in a 100.
And they have pieces to trade. Cliff Lee. Cole Hamels. Chase Utley. Jimmy Rollins. Geez, give up on Ryan Howard, if anyone will take him. Marlon Rent-a-Bat Byrd? Domonic Brown? Sold. Chooch Ruiz? Sold. Jonathan Papelbon? Are you kidding??!!?!?
Here's my cutting edge push: Reds.
People keep talking them up. They've lost 5 straight out of the break and are in 4th -- in the division!!!! They don't have Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto for maybe the rest of the season.
Bets are they don't jump three teams and win the division. Look at the NL wild card standings and you see that now the Dodgers, Braves and Cards are tied for the 2 spots. That puts the Pirates ahead of them, too, so they have to jump 3 teams to get a WC, too.
Sell.
As I said, teams have to do a quality self-assessment. What do we need to win next year, or the next? What can we get for Price, Utley, Hamels, Votto? that can make you a multi-year contender in the future?
We'll keep an eye on movement. I suspect the Red Sox-Rays series this weekend forces one of them into the "sell" mode. I think the Reds need to turn it around or...and the Phillies, well, they may not wake up. Welcome to Philadelphia fandom, again, for another generation. Remember, this is what it was like between Mike Schmidt and the five-year run they started in the mid-00s.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Tiger & Jack & the Majors
So, like many, I have just spent some part of the last four days both watching Rory McIlroy show us what the future of golf looks like and watching to see if Tiger Woods can resurrect the recent past and give the ghost of Jack Nicklaus a chase.
He couldn't.
One of ESPN's golf commentators just pointed out (it's "common knowledge") that Tiger is now, for the first time, behind Jack in the pursuit of 18 majors. Jack won his 15th at an age a month earlier than Tiger's current age. Remember (I do) Jack's last at age 46? Pure muscle memory and reflex.
The problem is, I don't think Tiger has any muscle memory anymore. Yes, he probably remembers the shots he hit, and how, to win. But he's not that Tiger. He's on his third swing (I'm not going to act like I understand the technicalities) change. So what muscle memory does he have?
I know this: he and I neither can put our driver in play effectively. I watched Friday as he hit more than one driver (what he hit on Friday) and hit it all over the yard. The one hole he pulled what I do often enough -- hit the first OB on the right and then in the rubbish was left with the second.
More than one analyst has pointed out he can't do that and hope to compete with guys like McIlroy, who was bombing it 350 down the middle with his driver. Even Tiger's 300 yard drive on 18 with his 3 wood pales in comparison to what McIlroy, Adam Scott, Sergio, Dustin Johnson do regularly.
There are other missing parts.
He doesn't make the putts he used to. As one of ESPN's on-air voices said "he used to make a couple 30 footers a round." He doesn't anymore. It's the difference between being 6 over and being 2 under. Add eliminating drivers OB or in a gorse bush (the Saturday spray) and you are getting close to a contender.
Here's the other thing: his body.
Yes, I'd like to have his body. He's sculpted. But his swing has always been full of torque and violence and the injuries from pre-2008 and since have all been about that torque -- he stresses everything from his achilles through the knee up into the back with that swing. No less of an expert than my physical therapist says that he'll never avoid injury again with that swing -- something else will break down sooner rather than later.
So, as for catching Jack, I will repeat what many before me have said: winning 5 majors after you are 38 (Tiger's age) has never been done, with the exception of Ben Hogan, the late bloomer. 5 majors is Phil Mickelson's career. In other words, you have to have Phil's Hall of Fame career AFTER you are 38 to catch Jack.
It was never certain. But now it looks terribly unlikely he can get there. Can he/will he win another major? Probably. Like Jack at 46, you can imagine he'll catch magic in the bottle again. Maybe a couple more times. But 5? Unlikely.
But it won't keep any of us from watching. It's fascinating to see the changes in the perception, and the game, of the greatest golfer of this generation, the greatest since Nicklaus and one of the handful of greatest to ever touch a club.
But he's no longer THAT Tiger Woods. And that's still fascinating.
He couldn't.
One of ESPN's golf commentators just pointed out (it's "common knowledge") that Tiger is now, for the first time, behind Jack in the pursuit of 18 majors. Jack won his 15th at an age a month earlier than Tiger's current age. Remember (I do) Jack's last at age 46? Pure muscle memory and reflex.
The problem is, I don't think Tiger has any muscle memory anymore. Yes, he probably remembers the shots he hit, and how, to win. But he's not that Tiger. He's on his third swing (I'm not going to act like I understand the technicalities) change. So what muscle memory does he have?
I know this: he and I neither can put our driver in play effectively. I watched Friday as he hit more than one driver (what he hit on Friday) and hit it all over the yard. The one hole he pulled what I do often enough -- hit the first OB on the right and then in the rubbish was left with the second.
More than one analyst has pointed out he can't do that and hope to compete with guys like McIlroy, who was bombing it 350 down the middle with his driver. Even Tiger's 300 yard drive on 18 with his 3 wood pales in comparison to what McIlroy, Adam Scott, Sergio, Dustin Johnson do regularly.
There are other missing parts.
He doesn't make the putts he used to. As one of ESPN's on-air voices said "he used to make a couple 30 footers a round." He doesn't anymore. It's the difference between being 6 over and being 2 under. Add eliminating drivers OB or in a gorse bush (the Saturday spray) and you are getting close to a contender.
Here's the other thing: his body.
Yes, I'd like to have his body. He's sculpted. But his swing has always been full of torque and violence and the injuries from pre-2008 and since have all been about that torque -- he stresses everything from his achilles through the knee up into the back with that swing. No less of an expert than my physical therapist says that he'll never avoid injury again with that swing -- something else will break down sooner rather than later.
So, as for catching Jack, I will repeat what many before me have said: winning 5 majors after you are 38 (Tiger's age) has never been done, with the exception of Ben Hogan, the late bloomer. 5 majors is Phil Mickelson's career. In other words, you have to have Phil's Hall of Fame career AFTER you are 38 to catch Jack.
It was never certain. But now it looks terribly unlikely he can get there. Can he/will he win another major? Probably. Like Jack at 46, you can imagine he'll catch magic in the bottle again. Maybe a couple more times. But 5? Unlikely.
But it won't keep any of us from watching. It's fascinating to see the changes in the perception, and the game, of the greatest golfer of this generation, the greatest since Nicklaus and one of the handful of greatest to ever touch a club.
But he's no longer THAT Tiger Woods. And that's still fascinating.
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