So, here's what I have about filling out this year's bracket, starting with generic notions of bracket filling, then some specifics.
General rules:
- "Chalk" is neither good nor bad: only once have all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (F4); yet remember that 19 of last 31 titles have come from #1s;
- 12s beat 5's -- one did so for 8 straight years until last year. The trick, of course, is to figure out which one, and not miss two games instead of none;
- A double-digit seed for many years has made it to the round of 16. The last two years, one of those has come from a Wednesday night game (this year it's Michigan v. Tulsa [the one no one thinks belongs in the tournament, excepting OC the committee] or Holy Cross v. Southern [remember this is a 16 game and no 16 has ever beaten a 1];
- Never have all top 4 seeds in all regions made it to the Sweet 16; "chalk" only takes you so far;
- Remember -- in every pool the number of points increases with each round (often doubling); worrying about the first round upset -- say a 12-5 -- when they won't get beyond the round of 16 is a waste of effort. The money is in the final four and picking the right winner -- often, you will notice, many will have the winner (this year leaning heavily toward Kansas, Michigan St, or North Carolina) but the money winner will have the most F4 teams & a semifinal winner or two. Put your effort into the end, not the beginning.
This year -- there is a consensus of "experts" (I've read fivethirtyeight, ESPN analysts, listened to Mike & Mike's analysis and brackets for two days, and two days of XM College sports)
- Kentucky and Indiana are underseeded and shouldn't be playing each other so early;
- Tulsa and Syracuse don't belong in the field;
- The PAC-12 was good, but almost everyone has Oregon losing before the F4;
- Point guards and great coaches win tournament games -- so Denzel Valentine and Coach Izzo looks awfully good. Few others have that quality of the same combination;
So, here's what I have (with the codicil for those in pools with me that I get to change between now and the deadline) --
F4: Kansas (1), Oklahoma (2), West Virginia (3), and Michigan State (2).
I know that's 3 Big XII teams, but they are all good and the matchups work -- first, I don't see anyone who I'm feeling good about beating Kansas in their bracket (Miami, but they haven't won a lot of tournament games in their history and didn't even get to the final of their tournament); second, OU is the 2 in the region with the weakest 1 seed; third, West Virginia's press torments teams and Xavier might handle it but one suspects playing UNC on short turnaround will not bode well for the Heels; finally, Michigan St is the best team playing in the tournament as of Sunday (who knows if it'll continue), and they've beaten Virginia the last two years in the tournament (their style matches up with UVA's well), and they matchup well with anyone else they play before then.
Upsets: I like VCU (10) over Oregon State (7)(the most overseeded team in the tournament); Michigan (11) to beat Notre Dame (6) [the Wednesday night tendency]; I have 3 9's beating 8's, but stats indicate that's almost a 50-50 game [no surprise].
Yes, I have Baylor (5) beating Oregon (if you've seen Baylor on a good night, you'll know why), which is my biggest late upset.
Now you know. Use it as you dare. Good luck in your brackets, as long as you let me win the cashe!
