So, here are your Gotham, P6 and value picks for Saturday, March 2. Those of you who win with those, please send to this blog my 10% finder's fee.
Let's start with the simple task of getting a wager down on Gulfstream's $.10 Pick Six (6-11), starting at 3:35 Saturday.
2/10-9/8-2-2-12-7/8
I tried to do something other than go one deep three times, but the numbers didn't indicate more. That's an easy
2*2*1*1*1*2=8 = $.80.
Now for the Gotham:
I'm going for some value and go $1 on 11-3. I believe in Overanalyze and think Escapefromreality might sneak second.
But for the trifecta, I'm going 11 with 7/3 (hedging my exacta), then 7/3/6/9, which gets you this --
1*2*4=$8.
For our Pick 6, I'm going to go double anchor and go long on the 11th. I like Overanalyze in the Gotham (10th race) as one anchor; then Impatient Investor #1A in the 8th. That leaves us this series --
1/6-4/8-1A-2/10-11-1/6/7.
That's 2*2*1*2*1*3=$24.
That's your winner. Bet it!
As for the rest of the day, here are my value picks in the first five. I'm hunting for value here, not winners -- I won't touch anything that's not more than 2:1.
1) #4 - Six Flings
2) #10 - Cameron Canyon
3) #4 - Ms True Way
4) #3 - Irish Lion
5) #2 - Sailmate
6) #6 - Sea to Sky
7) #8 - Sisterly Love
8) #2 - Sneaky Freud
9) #10 - Smash
10) #3 - Escapefromreality
11) #6 - Tycoon Cat.
They may not all win, but, based on morning line, when they do, they'll pay nicely. Enjoy!
Friday, March 1, 2013
Today (Mar 1) at the Big A: Pick 6
The day before the big pilgrimage to the Big A (Aqueduct) and yesterday no one nailed the Pick 6! The carryover is $27,000 and change; cha-ching!
So, here's a crack at getting some serious change --
Starting with 4th race (set for 2:22 post time):
#6 - Funny Money
#3 - Agualinda & #5 - Dissension
#4 - Well Kept & #5 - Hot Roots (1A was my original here, but scratched this morning)
#1 - Burned Bridges & #6 - Late Starter
#5 - Mineswept & #7 - Isntlovejustgrand
#2 - Bounty Pink & #6 Madre D...
Good luck.
Later I'll be back with similar pick for tomorrow's Gotham P6 and Gulfstream P6, too.
Happy racin'
So, here's a crack at getting some serious change --
Starting with 4th race (set for 2:22 post time):
#6 - Funny Money
#3 - Agualinda & #5 - Dissension
#4 - Well Kept & #5 - Hot Roots (1A was my original here, but scratched this morning)
#1 - Burned Bridges & #6 - Late Starter
#5 - Mineswept & #7 - Isntlovejustgrand
#2 - Bounty Pink & #6 Madre D...
Good luck.
Later I'll be back with similar pick for tomorrow's Gotham P6 and Gulfstream P6, too.
Happy racin'
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Horse Racing: Gotham (mid-week) First Take
Okay, the card is in for Saturday's Gotham Stakes day at the Big A (Aqueduct).
Why is Vyjack the favorite in the big race??!?!!?
The opening odds has the son of Into Mischief the 3-1 favorite, with Overanalyze 7-2.
Stunning.
Goes to show. Both have won stakes at the right distance on the Big A(as opposed to those with only 6f experience). Overanalyze's speed rating in the Remsen (which is longer than Saturday's 1 1/16th Gotham) was higher; remembering that Vyjack's Jerome win was at 1 and 70. We'll see if that 40 yards is worth anything.
Let's say we've got them (and it's Vyjack #7, Overanalyze #11 -- I think) to start our exotics -- who's #3 and 4?
I like EscapefromReality (#3) in the 3 hole; with Sky Captain (#9) in the 4 -- both have good speed numbers, good at the distance, and like the money. They may not match Overanalyze, but they won't be far away.
Now for the Pick 6.
There are two other stakes races in the 6 Saturday -- the 7th mile & 1/16th Top Flight Stakes, then the 9th the 6 furlong Tom Fool. Lots of talent in those races and will be a challenge to pick from a close pack.
Here's my first crack at straight 6: 6-8-1/1a-2-11 (Overanalyze)-6.
I'll be back with more analysis before Saturday; we'll see if we can come up with a strategy to come closer on the P6.
But I'm not on Vyjack Saturday. Maybe I'm missing it, but don't see how that's the winner given the talent in the field.
Why is Vyjack the favorite in the big race??!?!!?
The opening odds has the son of Into Mischief the 3-1 favorite, with Overanalyze 7-2.
Stunning.
Goes to show. Both have won stakes at the right distance on the Big A(as opposed to those with only 6f experience). Overanalyze's speed rating in the Remsen (which is longer than Saturday's 1 1/16th Gotham) was higher; remembering that Vyjack's Jerome win was at 1 and 70. We'll see if that 40 yards is worth anything.
Let's say we've got them (and it's Vyjack #7, Overanalyze #11 -- I think) to start our exotics -- who's #3 and 4?
I like EscapefromReality (#3) in the 3 hole; with Sky Captain (#9) in the 4 -- both have good speed numbers, good at the distance, and like the money. They may not match Overanalyze, but they won't be far away.
Now for the Pick 6.
There are two other stakes races in the 6 Saturday -- the 7th mile & 1/16th Top Flight Stakes, then the 9th the 6 furlong Tom Fool. Lots of talent in those races and will be a challenge to pick from a close pack.
Here's my first crack at straight 6: 6-8-1/1a-2-11 (Overanalyze)-6.
I'll be back with more analysis before Saturday; we'll see if we can come up with a strategy to come closer on the P6.
But I'm not on Vyjack Saturday. Maybe I'm missing it, but don't see how that's the winner given the talent in the field.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Bracketology 3: 3 Weeks & Counting -- the Field Shapes Up
Three weeks from right about now, the NCAA committee will announce the field for the tournament. With Ohio St just beating Michigan St in Columbus -- a win OSU needs to keep from falling into the "also-ran" category -- the weekend is over and we know more than we did.
Number one seeds are still in the air. But it's still IU, Miami, Duke and Louisville. Only IU isn't suspect at this point, with Georgetown's win at Syracuse yesterday putting their name in the mix. Michigan, Michigan St, Gonzaga, -- well, someone has said there might be 14 teams with a shot at the number one line yet.
On the other end, my Big 6 watch continues. Iowa lost yesterday on the road to Nebraska. That's not a quality loss. Looking at the schedule, both Minnesota and Iowa might finish the last four at 2-2, but is that good enough to hold bids? Minnesota has the highest strength of schedule in the conference -- and they have IU this week -- so that may boost them.
Still not counting on both making it. Or either one, for that matter.
Villanova's win over Marquette yesterday puts them in -- for now. They finish @ Pitt and hosting Georgetown. They probably need one of those to make sure the "last few" indicator isn't against them.
Temple? They are probably in if they win the next three. Then they finish with VCU @ home. Depending on the bubble, they might need that to make the tournament. Probably not.
LaSalle? They should win their last three. If they don't, they deserve to miss the field.
Maryland? They finish with two teams ahead of them in the ACC standings -- UVA and UNC. Losing both is deadly; winning both assures them of a bid.
And, of course, Valpo. The Crusaders are in first in Horizon, but need to win the conference tourney to be sure. There's probably not an at-large out of the Horizon this year. So, we await that tournament week outcome. Fingers crossed.
The field is shaking out. Games are running out. Watch here.
Number one seeds are still in the air. But it's still IU, Miami, Duke and Louisville. Only IU isn't suspect at this point, with Georgetown's win at Syracuse yesterday putting their name in the mix. Michigan, Michigan St, Gonzaga, -- well, someone has said there might be 14 teams with a shot at the number one line yet.
On the other end, my Big 6 watch continues. Iowa lost yesterday on the road to Nebraska. That's not a quality loss. Looking at the schedule, both Minnesota and Iowa might finish the last four at 2-2, but is that good enough to hold bids? Minnesota has the highest strength of schedule in the conference -- and they have IU this week -- so that may boost them.
Still not counting on both making it. Or either one, for that matter.
Villanova's win over Marquette yesterday puts them in -- for now. They finish @ Pitt and hosting Georgetown. They probably need one of those to make sure the "last few" indicator isn't against them.
Temple? They are probably in if they win the next three. Then they finish with VCU @ home. Depending on the bubble, they might need that to make the tournament. Probably not.
LaSalle? They should win their last three. If they don't, they deserve to miss the field.
Maryland? They finish with two teams ahead of them in the ACC standings -- UVA and UNC. Losing both is deadly; winning both assures them of a bid.
And, of course, Valpo. The Crusaders are in first in Horizon, but need to win the conference tourney to be sure. There's probably not an at-large out of the Horizon this year. So, we await that tournament week outcome. Fingers crossed.
The field is shaking out. Games are running out. Watch here.
Oscar Sunday: What Should Win
I just watched David Edelstein on CBS Sunday Morning discuss who was going to win the Oscars tonight. I think he's profoundly wrong about some things, and, since the massive number of readers of this blog (ar ar) know, I see many movies and have an opinion about what should win. I'm not predicting here, I'm giving my opinion and what my vote would be.
Best Picture is often the point of much contention and this year is no different. To continue playing off Edelstein, it seems Kathleen Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, having gotten the early buzz, but then spin and politics have turned it into not quite the favorite.
My vote goes for Silver Linings Playbook. It's quirky, different, well written, well acted and insightful. It turns the notion of romantic comedy some (does anyone doubt early on that Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence's characters should get together?) and the excellent use of Philadelphia neighborhoods (the diner has gotten more famous) adds to its appeal. It may not win, but...there's my vote.
For best actor, Edelstein indicated Daniel Day Lewis was a lock. Really? Sure, DDL was great as Lincoln, but it looked too easy. By that I mean that acting like Lincoln was scenery chewing and DDL did it well. I like my acting more subtle, even only a little. I saw them all and I like Denzel in Flight.
For best actress, I've only see Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark (by which I wasn't impressed) and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings. I wasn't impressed by either performance to the point of thinking "this was the best performance of the year", so I think one of the others should win. But I suspect there'll be a big swing to Chastain.
For best supporting actor, there are some quality performances. I've seen four of the five (who's actually seen The Master?) and DeNiro, Arkin, Jones, and Waltz were all excellent (unlike what I've seen from Best Actresses). I'd vote for DeNiro, though I'd think about Waltz. DeNiro is excellent as the tightly wound father of bipolar Bradley Cooper but Waltz is subtly brilliant as the understated bounty hunter in Django.
The best supporting actress statue should go to Helen Hunt, but I suspect it won't. It seems Anne Hathaway, without hair, impresses everyone else. Ah, yes, "acting" in a musical. Talk about scenery chewing.
I've seen almost all the animated films and as good as Frankenweenie was, I am a huge fan of Pirates. It would have my vote.
And music: I am intrigued by the original score nominees. I get why Skyfall received a nomination, although I'm not sure that's not overselling it -- the music was memorable. John Williams ALWAYS gets a nomination (for Lincoln). I don't remember the music in Life of Pi or Argo, which says something. But I do remember Anna Karenina. Maybe it's the nature of the movie's directing choices, but the music seems so important -- I guess ballroom scenes lend themselves to that. That'd be my vote.
That's enough. It won't go as I think it should -- it never does. And the wrong people will wear the wrong outfits (who wants to see DeNiro's decolletage?). Have fun watching. Go Silver Linings.
Best Picture is often the point of much contention and this year is no different. To continue playing off Edelstein, it seems Kathleen Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, having gotten the early buzz, but then spin and politics have turned it into not quite the favorite.
My vote goes for Silver Linings Playbook. It's quirky, different, well written, well acted and insightful. It turns the notion of romantic comedy some (does anyone doubt early on that Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence's characters should get together?) and the excellent use of Philadelphia neighborhoods (the diner has gotten more famous) adds to its appeal. It may not win, but...there's my vote.
For best actor, Edelstein indicated Daniel Day Lewis was a lock. Really? Sure, DDL was great as Lincoln, but it looked too easy. By that I mean that acting like Lincoln was scenery chewing and DDL did it well. I like my acting more subtle, even only a little. I saw them all and I like Denzel in Flight.
For best actress, I've only see Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark (by which I wasn't impressed) and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings. I wasn't impressed by either performance to the point of thinking "this was the best performance of the year", so I think one of the others should win. But I suspect there'll be a big swing to Chastain.
For best supporting actor, there are some quality performances. I've seen four of the five (who's actually seen The Master?) and DeNiro, Arkin, Jones, and Waltz were all excellent (unlike what I've seen from Best Actresses). I'd vote for DeNiro, though I'd think about Waltz. DeNiro is excellent as the tightly wound father of bipolar Bradley Cooper but Waltz is subtly brilliant as the understated bounty hunter in Django.
The best supporting actress statue should go to Helen Hunt, but I suspect it won't. It seems Anne Hathaway, without hair, impresses everyone else. Ah, yes, "acting" in a musical. Talk about scenery chewing.
I've seen almost all the animated films and as good as Frankenweenie was, I am a huge fan of Pirates. It would have my vote.
And music: I am intrigued by the original score nominees. I get why Skyfall received a nomination, although I'm not sure that's not overselling it -- the music was memorable. John Williams ALWAYS gets a nomination (for Lincoln). I don't remember the music in Life of Pi or Argo, which says something. But I do remember Anna Karenina. Maybe it's the nature of the movie's directing choices, but the music seems so important -- I guess ballroom scenes lend themselves to that. That'd be my vote.
That's enough. It won't go as I think it should -- it never does. And the wrong people will wear the wrong outfits (who wants to see DeNiro's decolletage?). Have fun watching. Go Silver Linings.
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Gotham Stakes: A week out (or Beginning the Derby Trail)
To start: last year my betting sidekick, known from here as JG, and I got the itch and travelled to Long Island for both the Gotham Stakes (the first week in March) and the Wood Memorial (the first week in April).
It's one week till this year's running of the Gotham, which is advertised as a Grade 3 stakes for 3-year-olds, with a $400,000 purse. Good check if you can get it. Last year, Hanson, supposedly not named after the singing group, though I had JG believing it to be true, won before a ninth place finish at the Derby.
Let me start with next week's prep with this: today the weather forecast looks the best it has all week -- 46 and cloudy. It's been as low as 40 and with some precip in some predictions. It's not an overly warm forecast.
The race isn't looking that "hot" either, with the early call on entries making Overanalyze the highest rated horse on the chart. The colt out Dixie Union, won the Remsen, and Horse Racing Nation has as an 8.03. The next rated likely starter is Elnaewi, sired by Street Sense, at 6.07. Let's hope a couple of the "possibles" on the list, like Vyjack (the recent Jerome winner) get into the field.
No, for those of you scoring at home, it might not be the Derby prep that today's Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream is -- with Violence, He's Had Enough, Speak Logistics, Sr. Quisqueyano, Joshua's Comprise, Orb, Majestic Hussar, and Sky Captain, it boasts that many horses with a higher HRN score than Vyjack.
But we aren't in Florida. We are in the mid-Atlantic and the Gotham is the race this month if you are following the Derby trail.
As any good tracker-goer knows, it's not just about the day's big stakes race. At the Big A (as Aqueduct seems to be known, or I'll make it up here), the Saturday 10-race card includes the wonderful exotic bet of the Pick 6 and the even more intriguing, if less lucrative, Grand Slam (starting in race 6). There are also 50 cent pick 3's and 4's along the way.
As we all know, a Pick 6 on a day like Gotham day at the Big A is worth some dough (as is the superfecta in a race like the Gotham). So JG and I will be trying to find a way to win that cash -- as will some tens of thousands of others. Which race and horse do you use as anchors? How deep do you go in a race, say the Gotham (#9 on the card, usually)? Is Overanalyze good enough to anchor your card and then work the other 5?
Great questions. Of course, if Overanalyze is the key -- and we won't know till we see the full card on say Thursday -- you know it lowers the payoff. It takes no genius to pick the highest rated horse in a stakes field. If it's a long shot, like the local running Clawback, who's won twice in a row at the Big A at 6 furlongs, then the pool gets to be even more worth desiring.
Look for blogs this week working through both the Gotham picks (hey, why not take a crack at the Superfecta?) and the Pick 6 and Grand Slams for day.
And good luck bettin' the Fountain of Youth. It's time to start smellin' the roses.
It's one week till this year's running of the Gotham, which is advertised as a Grade 3 stakes for 3-year-olds, with a $400,000 purse. Good check if you can get it. Last year, Hanson, supposedly not named after the singing group, though I had JG believing it to be true, won before a ninth place finish at the Derby.
Let me start with next week's prep with this: today the weather forecast looks the best it has all week -- 46 and cloudy. It's been as low as 40 and with some precip in some predictions. It's not an overly warm forecast.
The race isn't looking that "hot" either, with the early call on entries making Overanalyze the highest rated horse on the chart. The colt out Dixie Union, won the Remsen, and Horse Racing Nation has as an 8.03. The next rated likely starter is Elnaewi, sired by Street Sense, at 6.07. Let's hope a couple of the "possibles" on the list, like Vyjack (the recent Jerome winner) get into the field.
No, for those of you scoring at home, it might not be the Derby prep that today's Fountain of Youth @ Gulfstream is -- with Violence, He's Had Enough, Speak Logistics, Sr. Quisqueyano, Joshua's Comprise, Orb, Majestic Hussar, and Sky Captain, it boasts that many horses with a higher HRN score than Vyjack.
But we aren't in Florida. We are in the mid-Atlantic and the Gotham is the race this month if you are following the Derby trail.
As any good tracker-goer knows, it's not just about the day's big stakes race. At the Big A (as Aqueduct seems to be known, or I'll make it up here), the Saturday 10-race card includes the wonderful exotic bet of the Pick 6 and the even more intriguing, if less lucrative, Grand Slam (starting in race 6). There are also 50 cent pick 3's and 4's along the way.
As we all know, a Pick 6 on a day like Gotham day at the Big A is worth some dough (as is the superfecta in a race like the Gotham). So JG and I will be trying to find a way to win that cash -- as will some tens of thousands of others. Which race and horse do you use as anchors? How deep do you go in a race, say the Gotham (#9 on the card, usually)? Is Overanalyze good enough to anchor your card and then work the other 5?
Great questions. Of course, if Overanalyze is the key -- and we won't know till we see the full card on say Thursday -- you know it lowers the payoff. It takes no genius to pick the highest rated horse in a stakes field. If it's a long shot, like the local running Clawback, who's won twice in a row at the Big A at 6 furlongs, then the pool gets to be even more worth desiring.
Look for blogs this week working through both the Gotham picks (hey, why not take a crack at the Superfecta?) and the Pick 6 and Grand Slams for day.
And good luck bettin' the Fountain of Youth. It's time to start smellin' the roses.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Bracketology 2: Minnesota? Iowa? "The Big Six"
Definition: Dbrolaw (pronounced da-bro'-law): Eastern European for an IU (Hoosier) fan.
That's for Google.
It's been a week since I began Bracketology for this BBall season.
In the week, Duke lost (to Maryland, who we were watching on the Bubble), but so did Florida (who might be next into Top Seed).
So, this week let's keep it simple: it's still IU (Dbrolaw!), Miami, Louisville & Duke.
On the other end: Maryland helped with win over Duke, but the experts still have them out. Virginia (who really isn't nearly as "local") lost narrowly to Duke, which didn't help.
We've added two Philly schools, LaSalle and Villanova, to our watch list. I doubt Villy can make it, but...see later on Minnesota. LaSalle is #4 in A10 & hasn't made tourney in 20 years. ESPN has them an 11 seed this week. Go Explorers! Explore away.
Now, to my point last week about 7 Big Ten teams making it: Iowa crushed #7 Minnesota over the weekend. Then Ohio St. crushed them last night. Maybe Iowa steps up to #7 (they have nearly the exact record), but it's unlikely, as I said last week, anyone from bottom half can win enough games against Top 6 (IU, Mich, MSt, OSU, Wisc & Illinois) to stay off the Bubble.
So, who wins more the next three weeks? Villanova in the 8 hole in Big East or Minn/Iowa in Big Ten? Or does another mid-major team sneak in instead, or someone surprise with a bid off winning a conference tourney?
Finally, a shout out to my "home" team, Valparaiso. The Crusaders lead the Horizon and need to win it (according to one source) to get a bid. They are seeded 14 in one ranking...not a lot of room for error. I'll watch them the next 3 plus weeks, too.
If you are picking pools early, take IU. As much as I hate to say it.
-- Not Dbrolaw (obviously)
That's for Google.
It's been a week since I began Bracketology for this BBall season.
In the week, Duke lost (to Maryland, who we were watching on the Bubble), but so did Florida (who might be next into Top Seed).
So, this week let's keep it simple: it's still IU (Dbrolaw!), Miami, Louisville & Duke.
On the other end: Maryland helped with win over Duke, but the experts still have them out. Virginia (who really isn't nearly as "local") lost narrowly to Duke, which didn't help.
We've added two Philly schools, LaSalle and Villanova, to our watch list. I doubt Villy can make it, but...see later on Minnesota. LaSalle is #4 in A10 & hasn't made tourney in 20 years. ESPN has them an 11 seed this week. Go Explorers! Explore away.
Now, to my point last week about 7 Big Ten teams making it: Iowa crushed #7 Minnesota over the weekend. Then Ohio St. crushed them last night. Maybe Iowa steps up to #7 (they have nearly the exact record), but it's unlikely, as I said last week, anyone from bottom half can win enough games against Top 6 (IU, Mich, MSt, OSU, Wisc & Illinois) to stay off the Bubble.
So, who wins more the next three weeks? Villanova in the 8 hole in Big East or Minn/Iowa in Big Ten? Or does another mid-major team sneak in instead, or someone surprise with a bid off winning a conference tourney?
Finally, a shout out to my "home" team, Valparaiso. The Crusaders lead the Horizon and need to win it (according to one source) to get a bid. They are seeded 14 in one ranking...not a lot of room for error. I'll watch them the next 3 plus weeks, too.
If you are picking pools early, take IU. As much as I hate to say it.
-- Not Dbrolaw (obviously)
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