March Madness Regional Weekend: Brackets UP!

Yes, readers, it's at long last time for the second weekend's NCAA tournament games.  And this opener is a doozy: Marquette & Miami.  M&M.  2 vs 3.

This is important to a lot of brackets.  Five people in my biggest group, which would be for money if that was legal, have Miami winning it all.  No one has Marquette.

I have Marquette in the Championship game.

The loss of Miami's top rebounder, Johnson, this week probably means something.   You'd need Karnac or Kreskin to tell you what, though, till we see the game.

It should be a great game.

The other game in the East Regional is good, too: a matchup of the 1987 championship game between Indiana and Syracuse.  Its a 1 vs. 4 game.

IU has not been playing well.  Dbrolaw & I have noticed this phenomenon going back to Feb. 19 game with Michigan St.

Syracuse has been playing well since a late season collapse.  They played well in the Big East tourney, then last weekend.  IU struggled against Temple.

Sports Illustrated has IU surviving this regional.  I don't.

It'll be fun.

The other regional is fun but not loaded with seeded teams.  Ohio St, the 2, is by far the best seed left, playing Arizona, the 6, tonight, then LaSalle, the 13, plays Wichita St, the 9, play.  Go LaSalle.

Both are interesting match ups -- strength v. weakness.  Arizona has no point guard, per se.  Ohio St. has Aaron Craft.   LaSalle plays four guards and speed; W State is a bunch of behemoths and one guard.  Who wins?

I had Ohio St going to Final Four.  So does SI.  Means Arizona will probably win. (call it optimism)

Enjoy the games...tomorrow will be interesting, too.

Weekend Madness: Halfway Analysis

Whew!  Marquette won.  My bracket is saved (reminder, I have them in national championship game); although, as a Hoosier, I regret Butler's defeat.  Wish they were in different bracket (see LaSalle-Ole Miss game), but that's not the way it works.

Yesterday

Let's admit it, NCAA & CBS "family of networks," yesterday was not a great viewing day.  Here's the list: Michigan by 25, Michigan State by 22, Louisville by 26, Arizona by 23, even Oregon by 17.  Not exactly glued to TV games.

Then there was the classic that was Butler-Marquette.  Iffy calls; gutsy plays; free throw shooting; steals; and coaches working the strategy.  Great stuff.  The better team won, but they weren't better by much.  How much farther will the Warriors go?  Can they beat Miami, the likely next opponent?  I have it that way in my bracket, but we'll see.

The Gonzaga game was good, too, if you switched over after the Butler-Marquette game.  What we learned is that the Zags aren't one of the premier squads in the country; given their 9 week run of wins, they may have deserved their seeding (or a bit less), but winning 6 straight against NCAA tournament teams just was beyond them.  

Syracuse survived.  Will they win next week?  I don't see it happening.

Quote of the day:  Charles Barkley, talking about either VCU or Georgetown (or both) -- "these great defensive teams turn out not to play such good offense.  If they can't turn you over and run, then they have no offense."  Makes me worry about Ohio St. 

Today

CBS is running the games on the same heavy-on-the-prime-time schedule, with single games at noon and two, five-thirty, then all over from 7.  We'll all be groggy tomorrow morning if we are up (and don't have a snow day) after the Duke-Creighton game.  And that should be a good game -- probably as good as the Syracuse-Cal nightcap last night.

As for MY bracket watch, the big game is the Florida-Minn contest at 6:10 on TNT.  Why?  Half of my competitors have someone beating Florida; I have them winning.  In other words, there are points to be gained.

Everyone has Ohio St, then IU, Kansas, Miami and Duke.  No one foresaw either LaSalle or Ole Miss -- okay, one person has Ole Miss winning today.  San Diego St-Florida Gulf Coast?  Who's got that?  

As for LaSalle, who this blog has watched as it bubbled around, today's game is tricky.  Ole Miss scores about 7 a game more, and rebounds better.  But LaSalle is a better shooting team.  Which is the better league -- A10 or SEC?  It's a 12-13 game.  And they have "only" #9 seed Wichita State waiting on them.  Big game.  But hard to call.  Go Explorers.

So, it's not a bracket busting day...until you look at the long view.

As I said in yesterday's blog, next weekend is where brackets are won.  Having as many teams left next weekend is tantamount; getting there with all four Final Four picks puts you in front of the pack.  

On that note, I say "go Ohio State," (though it costs me $5) as they are my last Final Four team not in the Sweet Sixteen yet.  

Happy viewing...and in the mid-Atlantic, good luck with overnight snow so you get to get your sleep after the Duke-Creighton game. 

Bracketology One Week Out

This weekend's results give us some shape to the forthcoming NCAA tournament, which looks like as wide-open a bracket as we've seen for awhile.  Today one pundit claimed there were 15 teams that could run the 6-game table and end up national champs.  Maybe.

But here's our "top line" (four one seeds), confirmed by the weekend's games:  Gonzaga, Duke, IU, & Louisville.

IU's one-point win at Michigan today showed something, if just grit.  Michigan's record at home was awesome; IU hadn't played particularly well the last two weeks.  To squeeze out a big win matters.  Michigan looks like a good 2 or maybe even a very high 3, but IU is the class of the Big Ten, unless they lose Friday in the tourney.

Duke's tearing apart of a hot Tar Heel team says something.  Maybe the ACC isn't top-notch this year, but how is, other than the Big 10?  The Big 12 is good, but then Kansas loses to Baylor.  Uh huh.  The Big East is good, but are they deeper than Louisville, Georgetown and...Marquette.  Even if Georgetown is for real.

Thus Gonzaga's high status.

And no one is too excited about the SEC.

Kentucky won Saturday.  It probably puts them in the tourney.

Virginia beat Maryland in overtime today.  Good-bye Terps.

Temple beat VCU, the best team in their conference, and that's the win Temple needs to be in.

LaSalle is in.

Who's that leave?

We are on Valpo watch.  And Minnesota death-watch.  If the Gophers can't beat Purdue on Thursday, their chances of making the field slide, especially if more teams like Liberty win the conference tournaments.

More later this week.

Congrats to IU & Dbrolaws everywhere...it's been a long time since you've held the Big 10 trophy.

Bracketology Brief Before the Last weekend

As a weekend of big games is upon us, I wanted to talk about top seeds & bubbles before the action got going big-time.

After Miami's loss this week, it's Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville & IU in the top slots.  But IU isn't playing well and I'd be tempted to say this slot is up to who wins the Michigan-IU game Sunday.

On the other end, Kentucky is playing Florida now.  They probably need to win to get in.

Purdue is playing Minnesota.  A Minnesota loss after Wednesday's loss to Nebraska wouldn't help, though Lunardi has them a 9 seed.

On our other "watches" -- LaSalle seems safe, but Temple and Virginia (which I'm told isn't really "local") are on the bubble.

Temple has VCU tomorrow in a tough game.  A win in that will seal them in.

Virginia and Maryland play each other tomorrow.  We've been watching both.  At 20-9 and 20-10, respectively, and the win helps the winner (of course). Right now Virginia is in and Maryland on the outside of the bubble.  There are some great games, but this one has a lot of meaning for the combatants.

We'll be back on the watch tomorrow evening.

Go Purdue!

Bubble watch (& Gotham Stakes)

Two weeks from tonight -- Selection Sunday!

Where are we on our brackets and bubbles?

First, I have to open with this -- Purdue for a bid?  They beat Wisconsin in Madison today.  Handily.  Isn't that good enough?

Of course not.  But I had to put it out there.

Let's look at top seeds -- it was a bad week for my four.  Indiana, Duke and Miami all lost.

I'm going to stick with the one who didn't lose -- Louisville.  Every seems to be jumping on the Georgetown bandwagon, and, yes, they are hot.  But Louisville will beat them in the Big East tournament.  Or not play them.  Georgetown, as has been their habit for years, goes cold on offense too much.

I'm keeping IU, even with the loss at Minnesota.

I'm picking up Gonzaga.

And sticking with Miami.  A two point loss at Duke doesn't bother me.  Duke's loss at Virginia on Thursday does.

Although it does help Virginia, who we've been watching.

We've also been watching Temple and LaSalle, who look safely inside the bubble.  Maybe one will get to play in Philly opening weekend.

Villanova is right now designated to play the play-in game v. Kentucky, who lost yesterday and maybe shouldn't make the tournament.  Their loss today at Pitt doesn't hurt, but it was a chance to help.  They didn't help.

Our other watchee is Maryland.  The loss on Wednesday to Georgia Tech hurts; they shouldn't have lost that game.  They finish with North Carolina (not your father's big blue) and UVA, winners over Duke last week.  Two wins might push the Terps into field.  Might...

Our other watchee is Valpo.  Still one game up in the Horizon.  But no one seems to think there are two bids out of the conference & the Crusaders are seeded 13 or 14 in the proposed brackets.  They aren't in till they have the automatic bid.  Or not.

Now, about yesterday at the Gotham.

If you followed this blog, you would not have bet successfully yesterday.  None of my "longish shots" won in 11 races, and Overanalyze, who seemed to stumble or step sideways at the top of the stretch and  lose his mo, hurt the Gotham picks.

But I hedged some and had Vyjack in a couple of exotics that paid poorly, but put me ahead for the day.

It was a day of favorites winning -- so much so the three day Pick 6 pool ended up paying less than $5,000.  It's not like Vyjack was a long shot.  Though the exotic tickets with the other longshots down the ticket were worth having.

Now we look to the Wood.  The post-race interviews have both Vyjack and West Hills Giant returning.  We'll see if Overanalyze can return, too.  Along with several other interesting imports.

Looks like a great race, just four weeks ahead of the Derby.

Pick 6's for March 6 @ Big A & Gulfstream

So, here are your Gotham, P6 and value picks for Saturday, March 2.  Those of you who win with those, please send to this blog my 10% finder's fee.

Let's start with the simple task of getting a wager down on Gulfstream's $.10 Pick Six (6-11), starting at 3:35 Saturday.

2/10-9/8-2-2-12-7/8

I tried to do something other than go one deep three times, but the numbers didn't indicate more.  That's an easy

2*2*1*1*1*2=8 = $.80.

Now for the Gotham:

I'm going for some value and go $1 on 11-3.  I believe in Overanalyze and think Escapefromreality might sneak second.

But for the trifecta, I'm going 11 with 7/3 (hedging my exacta), then 7/3/6/9, which gets you this --

1*2*4=$8.

For our Pick 6, I'm going to go double anchor and go long on the 11th.  I like Overanalyze in the Gotham (10th race) as one anchor; then Impatient Investor #1A in the 8th.  That leaves us this series --

1/6-4/8-1A-2/10-11-1/6/7.

That's  2*2*1*2*1*3=$24.

That's your winner.  Bet it!

As for the rest of the day, here are my value picks in the first five.  I'm hunting for value here, not winners -- I won't touch anything that's not more than 2:1.

1) #4 - Six Flings
2) #10 - Cameron Canyon
3) #4 - Ms True Way
4) #3 - Irish Lion
5) #2 - Sailmate
6) #6 - Sea to Sky
7) #8 - Sisterly Love
8) #2 - Sneaky Freud
9) #10 - Smash
10) #3 - Escapefromreality
11) #6 - Tycoon Cat.

They may not all win, but, based on morning line, when they do, they'll pay nicely.  Enjoy!

Today (Mar 1) at the Big A: Pick 6

The day before the big pilgrimage to the Big A (Aqueduct) and yesterday no one nailed the Pick 6!  The carryover is $27,000 and change; cha-ching!

So, here's a crack at getting some serious change --

Starting with 4th race (set for 2:22 post time):

#6 - Funny Money

#3 - Agualinda & #5 - Dissension

#4 - Well Kept & #5 - Hot Roots (1A was my original here, but scratched this morning)

#1 - Burned Bridges & #6 - Late Starter

#5 - Mineswept & #7 - Isntlovejustgrand

#2 - Bounty Pink   & #6 Madre D...

Good luck.

Later I'll be back with similar pick for tomorrow's Gotham P6 and Gulfstream P6, too.

Happy racin'