NFL Wildcard Playoffs: First Look

First, a little rant: why isn't the NFL web site the first one to have the wild card game times?  And why, even now (10 AM Monday) is it not the top line?  In fact, if you look at NFL.com, you can't even find the times!  Sad for an organization that prides itself on professionalism and fan-friendliness.

Now, about playoff picks: I start with this -- I just had a very bad week.  My two upset specials, the Lions and 'Boys, lost AND I missed the Colts, Panthers, and Vikings wins.  That's not a good week.

And I have no idea on Monday who wins the four games this weekend.

Game 1: Cincy @ Houston.  Cincy is the hot team here.  Texans have gone sour last couple weeks.  Does playing at home make up for that?  They seem the more talented team.  But...do you take Matt Schaub over Andy Dalton?  Do you know?

Game 2: Rematch of Sunday's thriller in Minneapolis.  Okay, first, since they split in regular season, there's none of that "it's hard to beat a good team three times in one season in the NFL."  Vikings are hot, having beaten back-to-back playoff teams and four straight games.  It might be 20 degrees with wind chill factors in Lambeau Saturday evening.  And there's Aaron Rodgers.  Pickin' against him, or the also great Adrian Peterson?

Game 3: Another "hot v. not" game, with hot Colts visiting dead-in-the-road Ravens.  Does Ray Lewis play enough to psych up that defense?  Will Andrew Luck, who led the league in INT's, going to play like the rookie he is in the big game?  Is their D good enough to keep Joe Flacco from winning a playoff game in his fifth consecutive year?  IDK.

Game 4: Redskins are hot and at home.  Seahawks might be best team in NFC.  No way 'Skins win if this is in Seattle, but it's not.  Rookie QB v. rookie QB. Skins version is clearly hurt.  Good D's.

You get the idea: if you are in confidence picks system, I got no confidence.  Remember, there's always one visiting team upset.  Given these games, it could be any of the four.  Good luck with that.

I'll follow up later in the week as more news comes out about injuries, conditions.

NFL week 17: Who Plays Hard?

Usually the toughest thing to guess is who sits & who plays in the last week of the NFL season. But this year only the Falcons are a cinch -- the bigger question is about playoff-wish-we-weres like the Jets & Steelers. The fact some places have no line on the Steelers tells you it all.

However, the good news is there are several double digit spreads, making our high point picks easy: Broncos, Pats, Niners, Seachickens & Texans (who want a bye desperately).

Upset picks: Lions & Cowboys.

Why? Lions can look good @ times & Bears haven't since before Cutler's injury. It's in Detroit. Lions will play hard to ruin rival's season.

'Boys have post-season to play for. I picked, accurately, against them at home last week, but a hampered RG3 makes this a different game. Boys are used to pressure tight ones. Redskins might get wild card since I see Bears, Vikings losing, too.

Last week I picked 13 of 16, including Rams, Saints, Bengals. Stupid Chargers & Giants.  Need $ this week or season is a bust, although staying ahead of Josh counts for something.

7-11: Boys, Giants, Bills, Titans, Pack.

Guessing: ATL, PIT, SD.

Don't be surprised if Ravens don't beat spread & win in Cincy, tho I'm sentimentally picking Bengals.

NFL Week 16 Confidence Picks: The Playoffs Are Right There, Baby!

Having finished 5th in my 53-person league, I feel confident (double entendre intended) that week 16 will be successful, too.

And this week's schedule seems "easier" than last week's, with a record 6 games between winning teams on both sides, when our league weekly winner picked 10 right; several picked 12 right.  This week expect better.

We always need to find the upsets; this week the places to look for getting ahead of the competition are the Bengals-Steelers & Saints-Cowboys.  The Bengals might be the better team, especially based on last week's performance and the Steelers are favorites based on home field, reputation, and possibly the status of their QB.  The Cowboys are on a roll, but they have beaten no one badly, where the Saints, though on the road with a poorer record, have the capability, as they showed Sunday, to kick backside. These are the difference makers: if the underdogs win and you have 'em, you'll be high in the rankings. If they win...

The Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys, Bears, Giants, Redskins and Vikings all need wins.  The first two play each other and the Giants play a faltering division leader in the Ravens and the Vikings go to the best team of the AFC, the Texans.  Obviously, the Bengals or Steelers win, but only the Bears and Redskins look highly likely to win, making the NFC really crazy that final week.

For this week, let's start with the high point games:

16-12: Broncos, Packers, Texans, Falcons, Patriots;

11-7:  Bears, Dolphins, Skins, Colts, Seahawks;

Pick 'em:  Jets-Chargers, Giants-Ravens, Rams-Bucs.

Low point upsets:  Bengals, Saints.

NFL Confidence Picks Week 15: Go Cam, Again!

New week, old team.

Last week I picked the Panthers to win (okay, I had 1 point on them, so wasn't too confident) and they did.  I picked the Redskins to win & they did -- though that wasn't really an upset.  And, yes, I had the underdog Texans winning.  The NFL can make you look bad.

Remember the Eagles over the Bucs, on the road?  The Chargers over the Steelers, on the road?

Playoff teams: Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Colts, Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Niners.  The Niners go to Patriots -- you know how that Patriots at home at night worked last week.  Giants at Atlanta: go low on Giants, but is this an up or down week? Colts visit Texans: any thought that Monday's night performance is how they look at home against Andrew I'm-not-really-Tom-Brady Luck?

Points 12-16: Texans, Fish, Lions (Cardinals looked awful again last week), Seahawks & Green Bay (Cutler's iffy as I write).

Mid 7-11: Cincy (they did lose and Philly did win & it's a short week), Denver (Ravens heading wrong way; if chasers weren't too, I'd think they weren't making it), Saints, Rams, Panthers (yes, I'm on them again), and Raiders.

Who shows up in Big D?  Big Ben & Killer Bees or Tony last-minute-Romo? This might be the most interesting game of the weekend, though it's a great week for games.

At end of weekend, Bengals may be the division leader, in momentum if not in name.

1 point game: Redskins-Browns.  Really?  RG3 is iffy; Browns offense is iffy; weather is iffy.

Take these words for what they are worth.  Remember what you paid for them.

NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks: Big on Texans & Jags

(Disclaimer: I did NOT win my league last week; I was right on our group average...so I'm the common man searching for answers)

Let's start Week 14 with the basics, again, the "good teams," which we all now see as the division winners plus the Bears & Colts, Bengals, Steelers.

AFC:  Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos.
NFC:  Giants, Packers, Falcons, Niners.

For your highest picks, count on Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons & Niners.

Add playoff contenders Seattle and Tampa to that list (Seattle is at home and Cardinals are 0 for fall & Tampa is home against Eagles who are ditto -- the Phillies won since the Eagles did).

Along with the Eagles and Cardinals, you have to ask yourself where the Chargers, Raiders, Jags, Saints, Chiefs, and Titans are psychologically.  Who's quit?  Who will lose the rest of their games?  The Chargers may push the Steelers but it still looks like a high number pick; the Saints might give the Giants a game but it's in New York in December (good luck with that -- the weather is supposed to be bad); the Jags play the  Jets, though switching QBs might HELP NYJ, and Chiefs got their first win in forever and only go to Cleveland -- not really much worse weather than KC & not a scary team, although they've won last 2.  Finally, Titans are in Indy -- can Indy keep it up?  Will some of Titan talent show up?  

But here's the headline: I'm way back for the season and have two really good weeks in 13.  The way to get ahead of the crowd is to pick high in a game (or two) and win (duh) -- like the Ravens-Skins or Pats-Texans.  The points will be low on this game and evenly distributed (I'm guessing) and if you go 13 on Ravens, 12 on Texans (my picks, tho' with low confidence) and they do win...well, you jump up many notches.

See last night's Giants-Redskins game as an example (though not the best).  If you had Redskins for 12, you'd have jumped a lot of people -- I had them for 2.  The top 5 or 6 in my league had the Skins...and they were the underdog; the next best was the Colts, who also were big underdogs (based on confidence points), and you can see the correlation there.

Looking at the games above, my upset special would be Jags over Jets.  The Jags have played better with Henne at QB & the Jets have sucked with Sanchez; it's the NFL and a road game.  It's not a great pick, but it's the one worth making, beyond extending those two close games above.

I need to pick up at least 10 points on the crowd this week to get near the season money: I'm gambling. Good luck if you are, too.