NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks: Big on Texans & Jags

(Disclaimer: I did NOT win my league last week; I was right on our group average...so I'm the common man searching for answers)

Let's start Week 14 with the basics, again, the "good teams," which we all now see as the division winners plus the Bears & Colts, Bengals, Steelers.

AFC:  Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos.
NFC:  Giants, Packers, Falcons, Niners.

For your highest picks, count on Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons & Niners.

Add playoff contenders Seattle and Tampa to that list (Seattle is at home and Cardinals are 0 for fall & Tampa is home against Eagles who are ditto -- the Phillies won since the Eagles did).

Along with the Eagles and Cardinals, you have to ask yourself where the Chargers, Raiders, Jags, Saints, Chiefs, and Titans are psychologically.  Who's quit?  Who will lose the rest of their games?  The Chargers may push the Steelers but it still looks like a high number pick; the Saints might give the Giants a game but it's in New York in December (good luck with that -- the weather is supposed to be bad); the Jags play the  Jets, though switching QBs might HELP NYJ, and Chiefs got their first win in forever and only go to Cleveland -- not really much worse weather than KC & not a scary team, although they've won last 2.  Finally, Titans are in Indy -- can Indy keep it up?  Will some of Titan talent show up?  

But here's the headline: I'm way back for the season and have two really good weeks in 13.  The way to get ahead of the crowd is to pick high in a game (or two) and win (duh) -- like the Ravens-Skins or Pats-Texans.  The points will be low on this game and evenly distributed (I'm guessing) and if you go 13 on Ravens, 12 on Texans (my picks, tho' with low confidence) and they do win...well, you jump up many notches.

See last night's Giants-Redskins game as an example (though not the best).  If you had Redskins for 12, you'd have jumped a lot of people -- I had them for 2.  The top 5 or 6 in my league had the Skins...and they were the underdog; the next best was the Colts, who also were big underdogs (based on confidence points), and you can see the correlation there.

Looking at the games above, my upset special would be Jags over Jets.  The Jags have played better with Henne at QB & the Jets have sucked with Sanchez; it's the NFL and a road game.  It's not a great pick, but it's the one worth making, beyond extending those two close games above.

I need to pick up at least 10 points on the crowd this week to get near the season money: I'm gambling. Good luck if you are, too.