Bracketology: First post (T-5 weeks)

It's time to think college hoops (sorry, D. Eliot, hockey can wait...forever?).

This morning on Mike & Mike, Jay Bilas, MCB commentator extraordinaire, gave his current final four: Indiana, Michigan, Miami & Florida.

I'm okay with IU and Miami -- their seasons make it look like those are good picks.  But Michigan has lost 3 of 4 and they started the season "young," and, although you get all that bromide crap about "they aren't freshmen anymore in March," they really aren't older now relative to their competition than they were.

Florida?  Yup.  As Josh pointed out at today's lunch, they lead the nation in efficiency.  Great stat.  Means nothing.  Duke's RPI is much higher.

I like Duke in Florida's slot.

And I like Louisville in Michigan's.  Someone from the Big East is going a long way in the tournament -- right now I call two Big East teams, minimum, in Elite Eight.

So, there's my first post on Bracketology call:  IU (my Purdue roots hate this), Miami, Duke and Louisville.

Let's see how it goes these next weeks.

On the other end, I'm watching the "locals" Temple, Maryland and UVa.  Let's see if they get in.

And I wonder about Minnesota (despite their win tonight) and Illinois, the 6 and 7 out of the Big Ten.  I guess the conference can sustain seven, but I wonder if the math works.  There are a lot of losses in being the 6th or 7th place team in a league, and a lot of room to lose ground to some mid-majors in the next 5 weeks.  And if you are in the 6 and 7 hole for the conference tourney, that means that extra game on Thursday and they might need a win for a quality notch for the committee.  The bottom of the conference isn't strong, so that might not be a problem, but neither looks good enough now to win on Friday.  No quality wins in the conference tourney then doesn't help the cause if the bubble looms.

Let's see where we are next week.  And beyond.  Welcome to bubble watch and I'm NOT Dbrolaw!