It's Sunday morning. Been up two nights late, watching Madness. Go Huskies!
You can see below that 3 of my Final Four have advanced to the Sweet 16, and Arizona plays today Gonzaga -- a surprise winner over Oke State. fivethirtyeight.com has them at 73% for winning that game. So, I'm feelin' all right about the overall tournament.
Specifically, my bracket is busted for the billion dollar bracket -- so is everyone's -- and was with the first game (Ohio State losing to Dayton? Who knew?).
But I'm in good shape in my pool on ESPN (you know every one of these sites scores differently), just 20 points behind the leader with as many points left as anybody in my pool (or rather JG's pool). Having won last year, I have low expectations (who wins back-to-back years?), but it's good to be "live".
Connecticut winning last night helped. I had them (as you can see below), and that moved me up. Others had Villanova, a good portion with them winning the next game, too. Shabazz showed 'em.
In survivor, I'm still alive, too. Today I have Kansas against a 10-seed Stanford team. Even without Embiid I think the Jayhawks advance. fivethirtyeight has them at 79%. If I had been gutsy, I would have gone with Tennessee, but I'm not that gutsy.
Today, I see nothing to change where I thought I was in my original picks -- I've only lost Duke out of the 8 coming out today. Iowa State might be in trouble without their starting center and leading scorer. North Carolina is good; they might be good enough to move on. Ruins my bracket (some) but I still don't they they can beat either Virginia or Michigan State is the Elite 8.
That's it. Back at you, maybe Thursday...or Friday...or Saturday.
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I know you've been wondering...
So, here it is.
I have decided to keep it simple. So, here is my Final Four:
E: Michigan St
S: Florida
W: Arizona
MW: Louisville.
I have Florida winning the championship over Louisville.
My 5-12 pick (everyone has at least one) is SF Austin over VCU. I have a friend, Chris, who's a grad. It seems as good a reason as any.
Here's my sweet 16:
E: Michigan St, Connecticut, Virginia, Iowa St
S: Florida, UCLA, Syracuse, Kansas (chalk)
W: Arizona, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin
MW: Louisville, Wichita St, Duke, Michigan (chalk).
As you can see, my biggest "upset" is Connecticut, a 7 seed making through to the 16. I think Villanova, despite their record, is a very weak 2 & they are a major donut team (lots around the edges, no center) & Napier will beat them. It won't be the only surprise, but it's the one I "see."
Baylor, a 6 seed, is an upset, too -- but after the way they played through the Big 12 tourney, and with their big man (Austin), guards and coach (Scott Drew) they have what it takes to win in the tournament.
Obviously, I like the B12 and B10 -- 4 and 3 in the S16 respectively. I pay respect to the power conferences.
ACC was down this year, though I've got 3 of them in S16, too. None in FF.
I have looked at rankings, etc, and Nate Silver at ESPN (he seems to think Louisville wins again).
And, if you missed it, all five ESPN analysts Sunday night picked Michigan St to win.
Given they haven't been together all season, I think that's tough. Having watched them over the weekend in the B10 tourney, they look good, really good.
And remember for several years only tournament winners have ended up winning the championship.
I can't pick Louisville to repeat. They aren't that good; they aren't the same team as a year ago; who wins back-to-back? Not them.
But they beat Arizona in the one semifinal. They have talent, but not Louisville's experience. Not clear if Arizona can score against Louisville's D.
Florida's offense is a problem. But I think they have enough to beat Michigan St. Look at the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers -- Florida's 13.5 on D looks a lot better than Sparty's 7.7 on O. And, of course, when you combine both, Florida is #3 in the country -- behind Louisville and Arizona (my other two finalists).
I won my money pool last year. I put in for the billion dollar bracket. I don't imagine I will win any of it, though I hope one of several people who have told me I get a million if they win the billion.
Good luck to you all. May we have 63 good games.
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