I will have to admit it -- three of my top four last week lost. Of course, MY final four wasn't the committee's final four, so they only had one loser -- #2 LSU to #4 Alabama.
But, despite that, I'm going to stick with my theory: if the regular season means anything, undefeated teams HAVE to get more respect than one-loss teams, even if they are Alabama and Notre Dame.
So, this week I'm going to go "homer" (as the saying goes, at one point my kid and my money went to OSU) and jump the Pokes from nowhere to the top four.
But I'm conceding: Alabama deserves a spot. Replacing LSU. Let's be honest, unless the SEC has a two-loss team, they are going to have a representative. And the most likely scenario is that Florida either gets through with just one loss (will they lose to FSU?), or loses to a one-loss west team in the SEC championship. In other words, the SEC gets in. Period.
Clemson is good (in terms of the playoff). Saturday's win over FSU wasn't dominating, but it was a win and plenty good enough -- no flukes like the MSU over Michigan, the Duke loss to Miami, or the Nebraska win over MSU (is that turnabout?). They deserve the #1 slot.
Next, Ohio State became the Big Ten rep based on MSU's loss. They still haven't looked good and we still don't know who really should play quarterback for them. But they are undefeated. Their biggest tests are ahead of them -- though MSU looks like a bit less of a test (though a de facto division championship) after laying an egg against Nebraska.
Third, I'm going Pokes. The Alabama win over LSU was the biggest win of the weekend, but Ok State's win over TCU was a close second best. TCU was undefeated and a big favorite; Bama was the favorite in their game. Their strength of schedule is top ten at this point (Mike & Mike quoted it as 2nd, though I can't find anything that good) and the TCU win is second only to Bama's win over LSU as the best win on the board this season.
Fourth, as I indicated, is Bama. They beat LSU badly; though I still wonder how they lost to an Ol' Miss AT HOME, an Ol' Miss team that has now lost 3 games. That's looking less and less like a "good loss," since they have to play LSU & Miss State yet.
Waiting in the wings are (in this order): Baylor (who didn't look good Thurs night v. K-State and plays an Oklahoma team that might give them a lot of trouble, even in Waco); Iowa, who is undefeated, yet hasn't beaten anyone of note, but controls their own destiny, especially the Big 10 championship against either Ohio St or MSU (probably); Notre Dame, whose schedule doesn't look as tough as it did before the season (Ga Tech isn't good at all), but who has good wins against USC, Pitt and Stanford (assuming they beat them, see momentarily); Stanford and Utah, one of which may end up winning the PAC-12 with 1-loss (see Stanford-ND game); don't forget Michigan St, TCU, and Oklahoma, all with one loss but good teams ahead who they could beat (OU has the trifecta of Baylor, TCU and Ok St yet) and move to the top of the pack.
Again, the caveat is: there are a lot of games to be played and they'll shake a lot of this out. In the end, it may be simpler after Dec. 5th, but it may be more complicated (fewer undefeated teams, but tougher to separate one-loss teams). Let's all enjoy the ride.
And, go Pokes!
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