The Big Ten MBB Bubble

Today, the Men's basketball committee puts out the current list of the top 16 -- the top four seeds -- in an attempt to fill the sports talk void created between the Super Bowl and bracket week.

On yesterday's Obvious Brothers podcast (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers), we discussed not only IU's chances of making the tournament after losing 4 of 5, including at home Thursday night to Purdue, but also the dynamic of the others in the Big Ten (B10) looking to make the tournament.

John said "there are five teams vying for spots."  He's wrong.

I think there are at least six -- and that assumes Northwestern is in.  I see them as having 3 more league losses, but if that's it, at 11-7 in B10, they are a lock to be in the tournament.

My purpose here is to compare the six B10 teams "on the bubble" and guess who ends up making the field and who doesn't.  The six: IU, Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan, Minnesota, and Michigan State.  

First, this info: Jerry Palm's bracket yesterday had IU out, Ohio State in, with Michigan, Minnesota and Michigan St.

Joe Lunardi, later in the day, has IU in "last four in," Ohio St out, Michigan "next four out," and Minnesota and Michigan St in.

Note: Iowa gets no mention in either.  The Hawkeyes are 6-6 in the league, ONLY 14-11 overall, with an RPI of 96.  That last number is going to hurt them in comparison.

So, let's start there, with RPI (Ratings Percentage Index -- it weighs schedule v. wins and losses).  In order: MN 21, MSU 49, OSU & Mich 75, IU 76, Iowa 96.

Current records (by B10): MSU 6-5 (14-10), Iowa 6-6 (14-11), Mich 5-6 (15-9), MN 5-6 (17-7), IU & OSU 5-7 (15-10).

Top 50 records: MN 4-5, Mich 5-7, MSU 3-5, IU 3-6, Iowa 5-11, OSU 3-11.

I'll summarize: MN, tho 5-6, has a leg up with both the RPI and Top 50 record and 17 total wins. Mich St looks next best with higher RPI, 6-5 in league.  Iowa has to overcome RPI, but 6-6 in league when committee likes teams to have a .500 record, is big.  The other three have work to do.

Schedules (in order of B10 standings):
MSU -- IA, OSU, @Purdue (PU), NeB, Wisc, @IL, @MD.
Iowa -- @MSU, IL, IU, @MD, @Wisc, PSU.
MN -- @Rutgers (RU), IU, @MU, @MD, PSU, NEB, WISC.
Mich -- @IU, Wisc, MN, @RU, PU, @NW, @NEB.
IU -- MU, @MN, @IA, NW, @PU, @OSU.
OSU -- @MD, @MSU, NEB, WISC, @PSU, IU.

Note: MN has 5 of last 7 @ home.  IU & MU have 4 of 6 on road (and two MU home games are v. WISC & PU).

Okay, with those schedules, I picked the remaining games.  Basics: these teams beat each other at home and lose on the road; they also lose to the top 4 (Wisc, PU, MD, NW), period.  The one game I might question picking is the NW @ IU game -- NW beat them at home and may be more motivated two weeks from now.   I also assume these six don't lose to the bottom four (RU, PSU, NEB, IL), which is iffy, but one has to be positive -- you aren't making the tournament if you can't do that plus.

So, here's how the standings look after that:

MSU     10-8
MN         9-9
IA           9-9
MU         8-10
OSU        7-11
IU           6-12

Who makes the tournament?  Assuming B10 gets 7 in, Michigan St, Minnesota and Iowa, with Michigan close.  Michigan will be 18-13 to Iowa's 17-14, and will have 2 more Top 50 losses.  Turns out, IU needs to win that Northwestern game AND the season finale AT Ohio State to get to 8-10 and 18-13 and be in the mix.

And, of course, winning on Thursday in the B10 tourney, and maybe even Friday to get to the semis, might be HUGE.  Iowa in this scenario is the 7 -- now they'd play Purdue on Friday, who they split with in the regular season.  Those Friday games might make the difference for either Iowa or Michigan in this scenario.

It'll be fun to watch.  I'm sure my assumptions won't hold up, but that's the fun of it, right?