So, using Joe Lunardi's bracket, let me walk you through some of these possible games:
First, it's become "a thing" that someone wins a play-in game (I mean "round 1," sorry NCAA) and then wins the next game. Last year it was USC. Lunardi has OU playing Arizona St (say "no defense") and Louisville playing UCLA. UCLA has the elements to win in March -- a good guard (Halliday), a big (Welsch), and a coach (Alford). Yes, I know Alford has never quite hit it big, and last year I thought he was a liability when they were a sexy pick to make the Final 4, but he'll be the better coach in these two games.
They would play TCU. I like the Bruins to win that game. Ka-boom!
In the 5-12 matchups -- 12's have won at least one game going back forever (not in 2015, but that's the outlier). Here are Lunardi's matchups (as of today):
Florida-New Mexico St.
Clemson-Louisiana
Ohio St-Loyola Chicago
West Virginia-Middle Tennessee.
First, I look at these and they look more like 7-10s...I can see all 4 winning. New Mexico St is a sexy mid-major pick; Loyola has a senior dominated team; so does Middle Tennessee, who won a game last year, and has a guard (Potts), a big (King), and a coach (Alexander).
The most likely upset there is probably the Blue Raiders over West Virginia. The Mountaineers are up and down -- the buzz is that if you can beat their press and/or shut them down some, they become ineffective in a slow, grind it game. Middle Tennessee can do that. (On the other hand, I picked WVU to go to F4 on Obvious Brothers podcast (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers) two weeks ago).
And, BTWs, I don't know a thing about "Louisiana." But I don't trust Clemson, who I think is very overrated -- I have seen no one pick them to win their first game in ACC (v. Boston College, the 12 seed). I might pick against them just because next week.
Now, about the other bubble teams:
- OU has a lot of talent, but having watched them play the last few weeks, Trae Young thinks he's better than he is, the team doesn't make the simple plays (they missed two alley oops on fast breaks against OSU last night), and they play lots of torro defense. One bracket today has them an 8! (pick whoever is the 9 in that game) -- but they have a lot of "quadrant 1" wins, so will probably make the field.
- Ok St has less talent, but the Smith kid can play -- if he can stay in (fouled out last night against OU in a sloppy, not heady, performance). They might beat Kansas tonight in BXII tourney (KU lost their big yday), so they might be a hot pick for the first round (Lunardi has them in First Four out now).
- Notre Dame looks like Colson and 4 banjos. Don't think they belong. Lots of bad losses (IU, Ball State at home WITH Colson)...
- Syracuse...just no. The problem is they have the strength of schedule the committee loves. But they don't look like a team that can win. They lost to Notre Dame. And UNC burned them like toast last night.
- Alabama has a lot of talent, but needs to win tonight v. A&M. Without that, their losing streak (5) might kill them, tho committee no longer looks at "Last 10." They might win the right matchup next week, including being the hot pick out of the play-in game.
- Arizona State is like OU, resting on early season wins. At Xavier and Kansas. Were #2 in the country. I got a Sun Devils shirt when there in October, a KoD! But losing to Colorado in opening round of Pac-12 (the conference of Champions!) doesn't help. A play-in game with OU or Ok State would be fun, though. Watchable.
Finally, a plug: if you are wanting a podcast hoops analysis, my go-to is @STheSPodcast or blogtalkradio.com/sthespodcast . -- Gus and Mike are, as they say, college BB narcoleptics (they are doing almost an hour pod every day this week!) -- Mike has down 4 mock brackets already! check them out if you want good info and just mostly no BS analysis from studious fans.
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