Where ya going?

I missed yesterday blogging.  In fact, the readership stats said there wasn't a lot of delight about Saturday's. 😞

But it's Monday.  Yes, readers, it is MONDAY!  Doesn't have the same bang it once did, does it?

I don't envy the governors who have to decide when to reopen states.  Our governor has said he's looking at May 8th -- a week from Friday -- to do some reopening.

Go for it, Guv!

But I'm going to write this down: you can open, it don't mean we're going there.

I'll run down a list.

• Are you going to a restaurant to eat on May 8th?  May 15th?  
• Are you getting your haircut?
• Are you going to a movie theatre? (this used to be one of our favorite weekend activities)
• Are you going to a baseball game (they are arguing about how to reopen safely and play games)?
• Are you getting on an airplane? 

I'll help you with the answers most sane people will give: no, no, no, no, and hell no!

If true for a good number of Americans, I'll break this to those wanting the economy "back" -- it isn't back till we can do all those things without worrying.  

For instance, airplanes.  The airlines are in the dumpster.  They have federal bailout money.  But they are down from like 2.5 million passengers a day to 100,000.   Will they be back to 50% in May?  I don't think so.  (part of this, of course, is determined somewhat by whether venues like Disney Land and World are even open -- if they aren't, you aren't getting on a plane for nothing).  We have tickets to London (bought last fall, believe it or not, and fares we thought were cheap) for the middle of June -- the decision-maker here says there's no way we're getting on that plane.  How about July?  Eh.  August? still eh.  Christmas break?  Well, maybe.  At this point, our best guess as to when to reschedule is next year at spring break (March).  

If that's true of a significant number of people, it'll be forever and a day before the airlines are back to 2.5m per day.  That part of the economy isn't back soon.

And if it's true of airlines, think of all the others in the same boat.  No theatres, no concerts, no sport events (with crowds).  No catered events.  

And oil.  Did you see last week they'd pay you to take 1,000 barrels of oil (what I'd do with it, that's a different story)?  Pay YOU!  Demand is zero.  So, even if there's a "reopening" on May 14th (two weeks from today), who's jumping in their car and driving?  Now so many commuters have found that they can work from home, are they going to start commuting again on May 14th?  I don't think so.  Are we going to drive to vacations?  Again, I don't think so.  

Consumers in cars and trucks make up 40% of US demand on oil.  If it's down a quarter, then it's still a major hit to the economy. 

And remember that at least 23m people have filed for unemployment the last 5 weeks.  

So, no matter what the great push is, we ain't coming back soon.  We aren't going out to places like we did and a whole bunch of industries are going to continue limping at a low percentage of what they were for a long, long time. 

So, get that straight, people!