Tuesday, November 27, 2012

NFL Week 13 Confidence Picks

No, I'm not doing this because I've been winning my 50-person confidence pick group every week.

I'm doing it to articulate the issues to think about in this week's choices.

Rather than going with "Power Rankings," let me start with who I think will make the playoffs:

AFC:  Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos + Colts & Bengals* (*Assuming Roethlisberger is less than 100% the rest of the year)
NFC:  Giants, Packers, Falcons, Niners + Bears & ????

Given this, I look at this week's games and have all div winners -- minus Giants -- winning, for sure.

16-10: Broncos, Niners, Falcons, Texans, Patriots, Packers, Ravens.

Note: if you want to find the "upset special," one place to look is Ravens-Steelers.  They play each other tough, no matter who is at quarterback, the Ravens haven't been sharp (yes, I saw the Steelers in Cleveland, too), and it might come down to a pick 6.  Just sayin'...

1-5: Cardinals over Jets (probably gangrene wins since it's alternate week, but Cards prob have better team minus QB); Lions over Indy (in Detroit? YOU taking the Colts?!); Oakland over Cleveland (West Coast home game & who's QBing Browns?); Buffalo over Jax (you trust either team?); Dallas over Eagles (they beat them 3 weeks ago in Philly, but...).

That leaves us these: Bengals @ Chargers, Giants @ Redskins, Bears-Seahawks, Panthers @ Chiefs.

Bengals hot but West Coast trip, Chargers might have some life, and...Bengals throw duds up (they ARE 6-5).
Is this the Giants that beat Packers bad or ones that lost back-to-back weeks? Are Skins making playoff run or off this week?
Seahawks don't win on the road (1-5); Bears inconsistent.  Take the Bears and hope.
Panthers won in Philly, can they win at Arrowhead?  They should.  Good for 6 to 9.

That's this week's analysis.  Good luck.

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