Division Playoffs! Go Big w Confidence Picks this Week!

Week two of the playoffs: more or less fun?

Week one went well for me: 4 for 4 and 26 points (in 66 point league).  Only in 8th place, but I've got 40 points left to win the whole thing.

So, this is the week.

First, the spread on the Broncos and Patriots home games are large.  Two scores large.  I agree -- go big on them.  I'm going 11 on Broncs, 10 on Pats.  Though, warning! I always worry about Pats after layoff.  Remember first game losses in 2010 & 2011?  And this Patriots team, like so many recently, is light on D (25th in yards, 9th in scoring), and not perceived as a great rushing team (though in top ten in yards).

Second, the spread on the Niners and Falcons game is within a field goal, though the Falcon spread is larger than you might expect given various rankings at 2.5 points.  The Falcons game is a tossup, though the loss of their best rush lineman will hurt the Seahawks.  The Falcons, like the Patriots, are worrisome in opening games -- they've lost 4 straight first games.  And they've not been juggernauts late in the year anyway.

I think the Falcons are my "upset" pick this week, going 2 points.

And I think the Niners win over the Packers.  But the Pack might...well, we all have images from two years ago of Aaron Rodgers lighting up everybody and taking home the Lombardi Trophy.  If it's a 30-point per side offensive explosion, I'm not betting on Rodgers losing a shootout to a guy who wasn't starting until six weeks ago.

But this weekend reminded us about playoff football -- the highest scoring team put 24 on the board.  In a game where the winning score is 17, 20, 21 or 24, I feel good about the Niners D, special teams, and running game winning.

I'm wavering here about one thing: how much to put on Niners.  I've got a 9 left to use, and 4-3-1.

Look ahead to the conference championship: how much are you putting on Pats-Broncos?  If the Niners and Falcons win, are you going 9 on Niners in Atlanta?  Not me.

And the Super Bowl.  Broncos-Pats v. who?  Even against the Seahawks, who look to be the least regarded by oddsmakers, are you going 9 on an AFC win?  Not me.

So, I'm tempted to use the 9 on Niners.  It's a gamble.

But isn't that what we are in this for? Gambling.

GL