Ohio State in First Final Four: a Brief Case

Hello! I am back.

It's been an interesting fall, but I have been too busy to put any thoughts here.

However, the inaugural CFB Final Four announcement generated water-cooler talk that I thought needed some clarification and follow up.

The big one seems to be this (based on ESPN and especially this morning's Mike & Mike): why is Ohio State ranked so low and do they have a chance to make it to the Final Four?

I'm ignoring the first question, which is pretty irrelevant, and going to give a quick answer and analysis to the second -- which will indicate OSU CAN get into the Final Four easily enough.

I begin with this: I am not an OSU fan!

That said.

Simply: a one-loss Big Ten champion will be in the Final Four.  If Ohio State wins out, there will be a spot for them.  That's a big "if," but that's the short version.

Long version:  they are 16th.  Who's ahead of them?  Let's start with the basics -- Michigan St and Nebraska are 8th and 15th and they play them.  Win out and BUMP! BUMP! They are up to 14th (remember they only have to be 4th).

Now, out of their control, 4 of the top 6 are in the SEC West; they have to play each other and the winner of the division plays the SEC East winner, likely Georgia, in the SEC championship game.  For simplicity, let's have Miss St (current #1) win out, including SEC championship game.  Auburn (#3) also plays Georgia (#11).  It is hard to imagine of those 5 teams, two end up with 1 loss.  The Big Ten champ with one loss should get in ahead of a 2-loss SEC team.  Move OSU up 4 slots.

Also ahead of them are 3 PAC-12 teams; they play each other, at least the Arizona's and Oregon v. one of them (or Utah) in the championship game.  One of them comes out with 1-loss, joining the SEC team in final four, but knocking 2 more behind OSU.

TCU and K-State play; K-State plays Baylor.  Again, only one of those will come out with 1 loss.  Two more behind OSU.

If Notre Dame wins out, beating USC and Arizona St, they may block OSU (or any B10 team).  But wins over MSU and Neb probably leaps the Irish, if they win out.

This scenario would put the SEC winner, Florida State, OSU, Oregon/Az/ASU, & TCU/Baylor/KSt in final four, assuming one of each of those triads wins out.

So, it's not unlikely that, IF OSU wins out, they play, maybe as high as the #2 seed.

I don't think they win out, but no one should think sitting at 16 now precludes them in any way from getting there.

My money is on Michigan St. running the table instead of the Buckeyes, and ending up ahead of both the PAC-12 and Big 12 champs.

But we are talking "Is Ohio State out of it now?"  Absolutely not.