Thursday, November 6, 2014

Quick hit on CFP Week 2: The "jumpers"

I thought it worthwhile to say something about this week's Committee rankings for the College Football Playoff (CFP), especially as there were a couple significant "moves."

First, to those SEC lovers out there, you get a certain satisfaction in the fact that Ol' Miss's loss to Auburn "only" dropped them to #11 -- ahead of 1-loss Big 5 teams Baylor (who beat #6 TCU), Nebraska, and Ohio State (looks like a B10 diss).

However, I will repeat what I hinted at last week: I don't see a second SEC West team making the CFP with 2 losses.  If the SEC champ has 2 losses (unlikely), then maybe, but there will be enough teams with 1 loss (and conference champions) to fill the field before going to a 2-loss Auburn or Alabama team (or Miss St, if they lost to Ol' Miss and Alabama).

Next, how does Arizona St jump from 14 to 9 with an overtime win at home over Utah, who this week is 17th (the 4th 2-loss team in the rankings)?  I don't know.  Notre Dame advocates claim it is a diss to them, which may be true, but seems irrelevant since ND can make it right where such things should be corrected -- on the field, and this weekend.  ND obviously blows ASU back with a win in Tempe Saturday.

ASU's jump seems to be the Committee's gesture toward the notion that a 1-loss PAC-12 champ belonging in the CFP.  It would be hard to get there from 14th place (they would be behind Ol' Miss, right?).

Next next, is KSU's jump.  Again, it looks like the committee prepping for the F4 -- KSU has to be ahead of Michigan State (who they jumped) to be "next in" if they beat TCU in Ft. Worth Saturday.  This keeps them from being blocked.  Not sure KSU deserves that, but until we see Saturday's result, we can't determine that.

Here's what the Committee isn't doing -- projecting ahead.  This week, here's my projected F4, with seedings:  1) Miss St (assume they win out and go undefeated); 2) FL State (same); 3) Oregon (win out); 4) TCU (same, assuming a win at home Saturday, their last T25 game, and on).   Caveat: this assumes neither Auburn nor Alabama wins out, either of which could leave 2 1-loss (or better) SEC West teams.   If one does, TCU would be in jeopardy.

It's another great week for CFB, with Mich St-Ohio St, Ala-LSU, Oregon-Utah, KSU-TCU, Baylor-OU, ND-ASU.  Enjoy!

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