The Big Ten MBB Bubble

Today, the Men's basketball committee puts out the current list of the top 16 -- the top four seeds -- in an attempt to fill the sports talk void created between the Super Bowl and bracket week.

On yesterday's Obvious Brothers podcast (soundcloud.com/obviousbrothers), we discussed not only IU's chances of making the tournament after losing 4 of 5, including at home Thursday night to Purdue, but also the dynamic of the others in the Big Ten (B10) looking to make the tournament.

John said "there are five teams vying for spots."  He's wrong.

I think there are at least six -- and that assumes Northwestern is in.  I see them as having 3 more league losses, but if that's it, at 11-7 in B10, they are a lock to be in the tournament.

My purpose here is to compare the six B10 teams "on the bubble" and guess who ends up making the field and who doesn't.  The six: IU, Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan, Minnesota, and Michigan State.  

First, this info: Jerry Palm's bracket yesterday had IU out, Ohio State in, with Michigan, Minnesota and Michigan St.

Joe Lunardi, later in the day, has IU in "last four in," Ohio St out, Michigan "next four out," and Minnesota and Michigan St in.

Note: Iowa gets no mention in either.  The Hawkeyes are 6-6 in the league, ONLY 14-11 overall, with an RPI of 96.  That last number is going to hurt them in comparison.

So, let's start there, with RPI (Ratings Percentage Index -- it weighs schedule v. wins and losses).  In order: MN 21, MSU 49, OSU & Mich 75, IU 76, Iowa 96.

Current records (by B10): MSU 6-5 (14-10), Iowa 6-6 (14-11), Mich 5-6 (15-9), MN 5-6 (17-7), IU & OSU 5-7 (15-10).

Top 50 records: MN 4-5, Mich 5-7, MSU 3-5, IU 3-6, Iowa 5-11, OSU 3-11.

I'll summarize: MN, tho 5-6, has a leg up with both the RPI and Top 50 record and 17 total wins. Mich St looks next best with higher RPI, 6-5 in league.  Iowa has to overcome RPI, but 6-6 in league when committee likes teams to have a .500 record, is big.  The other three have work to do.

Schedules (in order of B10 standings):
MSU -- IA, OSU, @Purdue (PU), NeB, Wisc, @IL, @MD.
Iowa -- @MSU, IL, IU, @MD, @Wisc, PSU.
MN -- @Rutgers (RU), IU, @MU, @MD, PSU, NEB, WISC.
Mich -- @IU, Wisc, MN, @RU, PU, @NW, @NEB.
IU -- MU, @MN, @IA, NW, @PU, @OSU.
OSU -- @MD, @MSU, NEB, WISC, @PSU, IU.

Note: MN has 5 of last 7 @ home.  IU & MU have 4 of 6 on road (and two MU home games are v. WISC & PU).

Okay, with those schedules, I picked the remaining games.  Basics: these teams beat each other at home and lose on the road; they also lose to the top 4 (Wisc, PU, MD, NW), period.  The one game I might question picking is the NW @ IU game -- NW beat them at home and may be more motivated two weeks from now.   I also assume these six don't lose to the bottom four (RU, PSU, NEB, IL), which is iffy, but one has to be positive -- you aren't making the tournament if you can't do that plus.

So, here's how the standings look after that:

MSU     10-8
MN         9-9
IA           9-9
MU         8-10
OSU        7-11
IU           6-12

Who makes the tournament?  Assuming B10 gets 7 in, Michigan St, Minnesota and Iowa, with Michigan close.  Michigan will be 18-13 to Iowa's 17-14, and will have 2 more Top 50 losses.  Turns out, IU needs to win that Northwestern game AND the season finale AT Ohio State to get to 8-10 and 18-13 and be in the mix.

And, of course, winning on Thursday in the B10 tourney, and maybe even Friday to get to the semis, might be HUGE.  Iowa in this scenario is the 7 -- now they'd play Purdue on Friday, who they split with in the regular season.  Those Friday games might make the difference for either Iowa or Michigan in this scenario.

It'll be fun to watch.  I'm sure my assumptions won't hold up, but that's the fun of it, right?

CFB F4 - B12 = Really?!?!

It's early to start the CFB Final 4 sweepstakes, but I kept hearing stuff this week that I just had to say "really?!?!!?"

The analysis, heard multiple times this week, was essentially this about the Final 4 field --

-- Alabama
-- the winner of Ohio State/Michigan
-- Clemson
-- Washington.

Most discussion beyond this was about "if one of those doesn't work out, does Louisville, the Ohio State-Michigan loser, etc" get in?

The Big 12 winner was never mentioned.

Currently, TWO Big 12 teams are undefeated.  True, I have West Virginia losing this weekend, knocking that to one, but Baylor is undefeated.  And, true, just as in the last two years, Baylor's schedule is backloaded -- they have to play TCU and Oklahoma, for two, yet.

Why isn't Baylor mentioned?

Two years ago, Ohio State came from "nowhere" (they were Ohio State, not exactly the Houston of CFB programs) to make the final four and then win the national championship.

Baylor isn't as far back as Ohio State was, and their schedule doesn't look as difficult as it once did, now that both Oklahoma and Texas have multiple losses.

I'll stop here with this: watch Baylor.  Even a one-loss Big 12 champ might look good, depending on how those others do -- and there are a lot of potential losses on those five teams' schedules over the next 7 weeks.

What to do with your Bracket (2016)

Hi all -- it's that time of year again -- we all want to win the pool!  And, to quote Mike Golic, "win the cashe"...

So, here's what I have about filling out this year's bracket, starting with generic notions of bracket filling, then some specifics.

General rules:

• "Chalk" is neither good nor bad: only once have all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (F4); yet remember that 19 of last 31 titles have come from #1s;
• 12s beat 5's -- one did so for 8 straight years until last year.  The trick, of course, is to figure out which one, and not miss two games instead of none;
• A double-digit seed for many years has made it to the round of 16.  The last two years, one of those has come from a Wednesday night game (this year it's Michigan v. Tulsa [the one no one thinks belongs in the tournament, excepting OC the committee] or Holy Cross v. Southern [remember this is a 16 game and no 16 has ever beaten a 1];
• Never have all top 4 seeds in all regions made it to the Sweet 16; "chalk" only takes you so far;
• Remember -- in every pool the number of points increases with each round (often doubling); worrying about the first round upset -- say a 12-5 -- when they won't get beyond the round of 16 is a waste of effort.  The money is in the final four and picking the right winner -- often, you will notice, many will have the winner (this year leaning heavily toward Kansas, Michigan St, or North Carolina) but the money winner will have the most F4 teams & a semifinal winner or two.  Put your effort into the end, not the beginning.

This year -- there is a consensus of "experts" (I've read fivethirtyeight, ESPN analysts, listened to Mike & Mike's analysis and brackets for two days, and two days of XM College sports)

• Kentucky and Indiana are underseeded and shouldn't be playing each other so early;
• Tulsa and Syracuse don't belong in the field;
• The PAC-12 was good, but almost everyone has Oregon losing before the F4;
• Point guards and great coaches win tournament games -- so Denzel Valentine and Coach Izzo looks awfully good.  Few others have that quality of the same combination; 

So, here's what I have (with the codicil for those in pools with me that I get to change between now and the deadline) --

F4:  Kansas (1), Oklahoma (2), West Virginia (3), and Michigan State (2).  

I know that's 3 Big XII teams, but they are all good and the matchups work -- first, I don't see anyone who I'm feeling good about beating Kansas in their bracket (Miami, but they haven't won a lot of tournament games in their history and didn't even get to the final of their tournament); second, OU is the 2 in the region with the weakest 1 seed; third, West Virginia's press torments teams and Xavier might handle it but one suspects playing UNC on short turnaround will not bode well for the Heels; finally, Michigan St is the best team playing in the tournament as of Sunday (who knows if it'll continue), and they've beaten Virginia the last two years in the tournament (their style matches up with UVA's well), and they matchup well with anyone else they play before then.  

Upsets:  I like VCU (10) over Oregon State (7)(the most overseeded team in the tournament); Michigan (11) to beat Notre Dame (6) [the Wednesday night tendency]; I have 3 9's beating 8's, but stats indicate that's almost a 50-50 game [no surprise].  

Yes, I have Baylor (5) beating Oregon (if you've seen Baylor on a good night, you'll know why), which is my biggest late upset. 

Now you know.  Use it as you dare.  Good luck in your brackets, as long as you let me win the cashe!

Rivalry week picks (and some comments about Committee's current 4)

So, we are down to the next-to-the-last week -- RIVALRY WEEK -- as the media likes to call it.

Reminder for those of you in the Yahoo group: there are noon Friday games (2), and more Friday afternoon, so don't forget to do your picks early enough.

This is a tough week to pick.  I've been doing my homework and here's what I have learned about the big games --

Michigan v. Ohio State?  The line is "pick 'em"; the ESPN Big10 Bloggers are split 3-3 on it.

Iowa v. Nebraska?  It's all of 1.5 Iowa and the bloggers are 4-2 on Iowa.  Massive!

UCLA v. USC? It's USC by 3.5 on the spread, but the Bloggers have it 3-2 UCLA. Helpful?

Stanford v. Notre Dame? Pure clarity with Stanford 3.5 favs & a solid (#irony) 3-2 vote for them.  Whew!

Baylor v. TCU? Baylor by 1.5 and 2-1 votes for them!!!  Wa-la!

OU & Oak State? OU by 7 (on the road!) with the Bloggers unanimous at 3-0!  I'm not sure why, but that looks to be the clearest choice.  They are both 10-1 and it's in Stillwater.  What's with that??!!?

In SEC, LSU v TA&M?  Somehow LSU, who seems about to fire their coach, is 5.5 favorites, and 3-2 among the bloggers.  I guess I have to believe them, and A&M hasn't looked good, either, but this is the vaunted SEC West?  Two crippled, dysfunctional teams you can't pick?

Ol' Miss v. Miss. State?  The Rebs are 1 point favorites on the road, but State is 4-1 among the "experts."  Huh?

Florida v Florida State (the Sem-holes)?  State is 2.5 favorites and 4 of 5 pick them.  I guess being the SEC East champ isn't that impressive.  But they haven't shown any offense the last few weeks.

It's going to be a tough weekend of picks.

Which makes next week's F4 picks interesting.  The most likely loser among the top 5 is Iowa, which would change the Big10's chances A LOT.   Even if Michigan St. beats them then, it might not help their cause enough.

On the other hand, Notre Dame is expected to lose, too.  Who moves up? Baylor?  Ohio State (who is supposed to lose)?

Clemson, Alabama...Oklahoma? Michigan State?

Well, there's two weeks to go.   The wild ride continues.

Week 2 of CFP Rankings (Week 10 of playing): Revising After the Losses -- Clemson solidifies

I will have to admit it -- three of my top four last week lost.  Of course, MY final four wasn't the committee's final four, so they only had one loser -- #2 LSU to #4 Alabama.

But, despite that, I'm going to stick with my theory: if the regular season means anything, undefeated teams HAVE to get more respect than one-loss teams, even if they are Alabama and Notre Dame.

So, this week I'm going to go "homer" (as the saying goes, at one point my kid and my money went to OSU) and jump the Pokes from nowhere to the top four.

But I'm conceding: Alabama deserves a spot.  Replacing LSU.  Let's be honest, unless the SEC has a two-loss team, they are going to have a representative.  And the most likely scenario is that Florida either gets through with just one loss (will they lose to FSU?), or loses to a one-loss west team in the SEC championship.  In other words, the SEC gets in.  Period.

Clemson is good (in terms of the playoff).  Saturday's win over FSU wasn't dominating, but it was a win and plenty good enough -- no flukes like the MSU over Michigan, the Duke loss to Miami, or the Nebraska win over MSU (is that turnabout?).  They deserve the #1 slot.

Next, Ohio State became the Big Ten rep based on MSU's loss.  They still haven't looked good and we still don't know who really should play quarterback for them.  But they are undefeated.  Their biggest tests are ahead of them -- though MSU looks like a bit less of a test (though a de facto division championship) after laying an egg against Nebraska.

Third, I'm going Pokes.  The Alabama win over LSU was the biggest win of the weekend, but Ok State's win over TCU was a close second best.  TCU was undefeated and a big favorite; Bama was the favorite in their game.   Their strength of schedule is top ten at this point (Mike & Mike quoted it as 2nd, though I can't find anything that good) and the TCU win is second only to Bama's win over LSU as the best win on the board this season.

Fourth, as I indicated, is Bama.  They beat LSU badly; though I still wonder how they lost to an Ol' Miss AT HOME, an Ol' Miss team that has now lost 3 games.  That's looking less and less like a "good loss," since they have to play LSU & Miss State yet.

Waiting in the wings are (in this order): Baylor (who didn't look good Thurs night v. K-State and plays an Oklahoma team that might give them a lot of trouble, even in Waco); Iowa, who is undefeated, yet hasn't beaten anyone of note, but controls their own destiny, especially the Big 10 championship against either Ohio St or MSU (probably); Notre Dame, whose schedule doesn't look as tough as it did before the season (Ga Tech isn't good at all), but who has good wins against USC, Pitt and Stanford (assuming they beat them, see momentarily); Stanford and Utah, one of which may end up winning the PAC-12 with 1-loss (see Stanford-ND game); don't forget Michigan St, TCU, and Oklahoma, all with one loss but good teams ahead who they could beat (OU has the trifecta of Baylor, TCU and Ok St yet) and move to the top of the pack.

Again, the caveat is: there are a lot of games to be played and they'll shake a lot of this out.  In the end, it may be simpler after Dec. 5th, but it may be more complicated (fewer undefeated teams, but tougher to separate one-loss teams).  Let's all enjoy the ride.

And, go Pokes!

CFP Week 1 (again): Who Should be in the First Final 4

So, tonight is the FBS committee's first rankings for the 2016 championship playoff.

Before they come out, I will make my call on who SHOULD be in the first final four.  Note: this is NOT a prediction of who should be in the last one (a whole different thing), but a snapshot of now.

First off, let's get this straight: no one-loss team deserves in the F4 when there would now be 4 power 5 conferences with undefeated teams.  So, our current F4 should come from this group: LSU, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Clemson.

Easy enough -- LSU & Clemson are in.

Who else?  Now?

I think Michigan State is #2, based on their record.  I heard on a radio show this morning that "only LSU has beaten two teams in the Top 25" -- well, Sparty beat #7 Oregon in the second game and then #12 Michigan.  So, what gives?

Based on those two wins, they deserve a slot.

Fourth?  TCU.  Based on wins over Minnesota (a modestly decent team) and Kansas St, Texas and West Virginia, the middling teams in Big 12, they have the best resume of the B12 threesome.

But I won't count on that much.  This week's Oak State-TCU game will tell us a lot.

I will say here what will be said ad nauseum (till you're sick) these next few days: there are a lot of games left that will thin the herd, to the point where one suspects we'll be talking about which one-loss team (or teams) should be in the F4.  But, for now, it's those four undefeateds on top.

Stay tune for next week and more comments.   Go Purdue! (I have to keep trying)

Big Ten Hoops: The Stretch Drive

Today's ESPN Bubblewatch opens with the strength of the Big Ten and ends with "It's not the best league, not by a long shot. The next two weeks, though, it might just be the most fun."

True dat! 

The B10, or somehow it's become the B1G, is now the league with the most "bids" in everyone's bracketology.  Jerry Palm at CBS has them set with 8 teams -- which would be a high for the league -- where Lunardi at ESPN (if not a B10 hater, very much an ACC lover) has 7 with Illinois in the next group in.  

If you don't have them memorized, that's Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Michigan St, Ohio St, Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois.  

With two conference games left and the tourney, this should be fun.

Let's admit it: Wisconsin is the class of the league.  And with their win over the Badgers last week, Maryland established themselves as clear #2 -- a loss would have left them in a tie with Purdue for 2nd.  

Maryland and Purdue have been surprises -- MD was picked 10th in preseason, having lost most of last year's starting team.  Michigan St and Iowa have been something of disappointments. 

Now comes crunch time.  That Bubblewatch today says MSU, OSU & Iowa should be in, with Wisconsin and Maryland, but Purdue, IU and ILL have work to do.  Since Purdue and Illinois finish in W. Lafayette on Saturday, that work will be head-to-head.

But, no matter what ESPN says, the B10 has a bunch of teams that could be playing the second weekend of the NCAAs.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 4 or 5 B10 teams make the Sweet 16.  As they say about such things, depends on how they play (will IU hit double-digit threes?) and the match ups (IU has no "big"; Purdue doesn't score well; Maryland isn't overly large, either), but after the grueling B10 season, the tournament may seem relaxing.   

Here's your quick table for the end of season.  Of course, the conference tourney pairings can change (and will) with the last two regular season games, but you can easily seeing a 12-6 Iowa team in the 3 hole, IU losing out to fall to 8th, and Purdue winning out to remain 3rd (don't bet on it), or losing out to fall to...6th?  Wild times.

	B10 Record	BPI	Games Left	1st Game of B10 Tourney (If played today)	Current Seedings (CBS/ESPN)
Maryland	12-4	78	RUT/NEB	IU/MN	3/3
Purdue	11-5	75.3	MSU/ILL	MSU or	10/11
Mich St	10-6	80.3	PU/IU	RUT/NW	7/7
Ohio St	10-6	84.3	PSU/WI	IA or	8/7
Iowa	10-6	75.7	IU/NW	PSU/NEB	7/7
Illinois	8-8	72.2	NEB/PU	MI	11/x
Indiana	9-7	74.1	IA/MSU	MN	7/10