Derby Week! Notes

It's officially Derby week.  

I'll begin breaking down the race AFTER the draw on Wednesday.  Right now I like Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Itsmyluckyday (the name alone gets buzz), and Goldencents.  All of them can't draw good post positions and the field isn't set -- the blogosphere thought someone coming out of last night's Derby Trial, with its 20 points in the Derby qualifying race, i.e. Forty Tales, might run.  I doubt it.  But Winning Cause, last week's Lexington winner, might, too.  And there were two in 19th and 20th slots (the last ones) who announced this week they weren't running.  Don't know the field, don't know the posts.  Hard to know how to go until we know all that.

But this message is to remind you there's LOTS of racing next Saturday beyond the Derby.  For East Coasters, Belmont Park, aka The Big Sandy, is open and will run a full card.  JG loves his Pick 6's and Belmont will have one next Saturday, starting 3 PM EDT.   Yesterday's @ Belmont had no winner, but paid $572 for 5 of 6 -- a good payoff on $2.  

Churchill will have a P6, too, starting, of course, about an hour later.  I think the Derby is always race 5 of that P6, so be prepared, and be prepared early.

And, of course, there's your local track.  Mine is Penn National, which starts racing at 6, which is right around the time of the Derby.  I've always found Penn Nat hard to handicap, so I have little hope of winning there, though they start with a 50 cent Pick 4 (this for JG), so I won't save money to bet there after burning it on the P6's & the Derby.

There's a primer.  The Derby "handled" $133 million in bets last year -- there's money to be won.  & I'll remind you of the Superfecta: last year it paid $48,000; according to downthestretch.com the median payout the last 12 years is $71,799.  Of course, the exacta median is a sweet $241. 

So, lick your chops, there's meat on them thar bones.   

(Short) Oblivion Review

Yes, I saw Oblivion, starring Tom Cruise, and more Tom Cruise.

First, the films coming out will get better.  Assuredly.  It's been a 3-star at best spring, with the exception of Beyond the Pines, which should be a candidate for Best Oscar.

Next, sci-fi movies come will a waiver: if you go see them, there's only so much "reality" you can hope for.  If they want to change the laws of physics, well, that's what "science" "fiction" is about.

Given that, Oblivion is actually pretty good.  Three stars, for sure.  The shots, the tech, the grit of a dystopian Earth are all well done.  Visually, it's great, though the Tom Cruise uniforms could use some work: let's hope 60 years in the future uniform designers will do better.

And Cruise is good as the near-drone-like mechanic left alone (sort of) on the planet, repairing guard drones that may at any time go off and decide they need to terminate (how many times does the word appear on screen?) him.  Cruise's Jack Harper (wasn't he just Jack something-else in his last movie?  was it a "thing" he had in mind?) is clearly torn by dreams that seem more like memories.

Counter his "partner," Victoria, played chillingly by Andrea Riseborough, who seems to lack humanity.  She reminds him of their memory being wiped clean, but it's not clear that hers is either, it's just she's willing to focus on a different set of them from Jack.  Weird.

The plot is convoluted.   The bad guys need Jack's help to blow up the good guys (you can tell they must be the bad guys, they are dressed a lot like Dark Vader) & it turns out there's another love interest (Victoria's cool melts when she sees Jack with Julia, played dully by Olga Kurylenko (who wasn't scintillating in Quantum of Solace either -- maybe they should stop acting like she can act like a femme fatale)) & there's another set of repair people and...

Well, I warned you about sic-fi.

But it keeps you watching.  Morgan Freeman has the second billing but hardly the second role -- is another variation on his Batman role as Q -- and Oscar winner Melissa Leo is a mere cameo.

But director, co-screenplay writer Joseph Kosinski (his second directorial bit after Tron), makes a good adventure.

Be warned, it opens slowly.  Too much Jack voiceover narration, too little real tension.

Yes, see it.  Three solid stars.

Derby Preve #2: Short Take, The Week B4 Derby Week

So, as JG can attest, I've picked 3 straight Derby prep races right.  Yeah, I/we had Winning Cause in the Lexington Saturday.  I think JG said he won $29+ on $2 WPS ticket.  Not a bad payoff.

He wants as much or better on the Derby.

My opening comments on the Derby:  Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary.  Not in that order.

I like that Revolutionary picked up Calvin last week as rider; I like that both horses have only been out twice in 2013 -- Vyjack looked tired (to name one) in Wood (his third trip of the year)...and I needn't remind you the Derby is longer.

The future line out of Vegas has NI @ 9 to 1, Rev @ 7 to 1.  I take that every day.  And an exacta?!?!!?  Whoa, baby.

But I also like Goldencents -- remembering the California run from I'll Have Another last year -- and its top speed rating of the spring.  At 8 to 1, it's a good value, too.

The current favorite is Verrrazano, at 9 to 2.  I doubt anyone goes much lower.   It's not going to be an odds-on race, but one with money spread over about half a dozen or so contenders.

Value if you pick it right.  Right JG?

Derby Preve 3 Weeks Out

Okay, I picked the Wood right and even won some money Saturday on the Arkansas Derby with Overanalyze.  The Derby field is all but set -- the 20 point Lexington Stakes this weekend doesn't have anyone in it (see DRF) who can push into the Derby field.  It looks like "who scratches" determines the field.

My early analysis isn't terribly sophisticated: both Verrazano & Orb have won twice this spring in Derby prep.  They've beaten good fields and have made a bunch of money ($840 & $810k).  But neither has posted a decent Beyer number -- Verrazano's 101 in the March 9 Tampa Derby is the best either has posted.

Goldencent posted a 105 in winning last weekend's Santa Anita.  That's the best number on the board, and it's not impressive.

Overanalyze put an 85 up in winning the Arkansas Saturday.  Not Triple Crown race winning stuff.

With so many horses so close, and no one having looked like a Derby winner yet looking at the numbers, there'll be a lot of chatter Derby week about post positions and how the race will run.  Who's the early speed?  Several seem to be closers, but are they closers at the new, longer distance?

My early call is Revolutionary.  I liked him in the Louisiana, which he won with a solid 93 (it's not a great number historically, but a good one this year), and seems to be trending up.

I'd love Goldencents with its good Beyer number, but California horses rarely travel well to the Derby.

And I liked Normandy Invasion in the Wood.

The betting on the Derby should be crazy -- there should be some value to bet on.

Let's see where Derby week and the post positions get us (who wants to be out at 20?).  And we'll see what the models on the trip show.

Go Normandy Invasion. For now.

Review of Beyond the Pines

In today's New York Times Book Review, Clive James, critic extraordinaire, says a good review says, "Look at this!  This is good."

LOOK AT THIS!  THIS IS GOOD.

Warning: yes, it's an art film.  It's deep.  It doesn't settle for cheap moments.

Ryan Gosling is scary as the well-meaning carney who tries to settle down for the baby son he didn't know he didn't have.  It's a lot like his role in Drive,  the working class dude who keeps to himself, says little, seems to have an ethic, and then has to violate it.  Not new stuff, but he's good doing it.  Again.

Bradley Cooper is excellent as the lawyer-turned-cop whose life is changed by Gosling.  He does a good job with the role of the man whose life is in flux when he appears in the film, then becomes a Greek tragedy -- hero, then goat.

It's deep stuff.

Ray Liotta is good as the menacing older cop; Harry Yulin is good as Cooper's father; Bruce Greenwood is his usual quality as the DA; and Rose Byrne (who doesn't love Rose Byrne?) is excellent as Cooper's troubled wife (who wants to be a cops wife?).

And I have to mention the camera work.  Director Derek Cianfrance uses hand-held (isn't it?) for some of the chase scenes, making you wish you had taken your Dramamine, and his writing work (he's one of the credited ones) deserves kudos -- the pines of the title play a subtle role in the whole and the dialogue is sharp.

Great cast, good story, interesting visuals.

See it.

Wood You Give Me a V?

I have been asked if there was going to be a blog on the Wood Memorial.  Really...not making it up.

So, here it is.

Let's start with the Derby picture:  Vyjack and Verrazano are probably in the Derby (assuming they want to make the trek and rough it up with 20 3-yea-olds for a few million in prizes and breeding) and Elnaawi has points and could sneak in.

But none of them has a Beyer speed rating that looks like Derby stuff.  Vyjack won the Gotham Stakes and put up a 93.  Verrazano won the Tampa Derby with a 101.  Experts claim you need to get above 105 to get into the Derby talk.

So, you wonder how good this field is.

The best Beyer number in the field is Verrazano's 105 in February at Gulfstream Park.

These two scores explain Verrazano's 4/5 on the morning line.

There's no money in that.

Maybe you use Verrazano in an exotic (it's the 8), like an 8 with XY.

What else to play?

This is why it's called gambling.

Who will improve on their Beyer numbers?  Who won't?  How fast will the race be run?  How will it be run -- there seems to be early speed (this was Vyjack's rep before the Gotham) -- so who finishes in the longest race of most of the field's career?  Who knows?

This is the way to play it: Normandy Invasion (the 2) across the board -- win, place & show.  At 5:1 on the opening line, there's value there, and with a close 5th in the Risen Star (with a 91 rating) & a 99 in placing 2nd in the Remsen, he's a quality horse.  There's money there.

Exotics?  I'd go 8 over 2 & 4 (Elnaawi).  If you are feeling good and want THE long shot, add #6 Mr Palmer, up from Laurel after a win in the mile and 1/8th Private Terms, or Go Get the Basil, the 9 @ 30:1, with a 93 Beyer rating in mile and 70 yard optional claimer at Aqueduct last month.

Got the dough? How about covering 8, 2, 4, 6 & 5 (Vyjack) in the Superfecta?  8-2 over 4,6,5? or 8,2,4 over 4,6,5?

The good news: it should be a fun race.  There are several horses look like they can win.  The two V's and Normandy Invasion and maybe Mr Palmer way out there.  And some potentially huge exotic numbers.

That's my call.  Normandy Invasion is where the value is.  You heard it here.  If I'm right, tell your friends.  If not, this will disappear (automatically) into the ether. :)

Spring is in the...Nevermind! It's still Baseball Season

New sport! New season.

Josh is currently sitting at PNC Field.  I think I just saw him.  I just want to know if this is what fun looks like at Pirates Field?  3-0 Cubs.

Bryce Harper has already hit two runs and the Nats have won.  What a world we live in.

And the Red Sox and Yankees are playing and the baseball nation doesn't really care.  At least until one of them limps into May or even June with a chance of keeping up with the Rays, Jays, and O's (if only it rhymed, too).

Writing this as I wait on the opening pitch of the White Sox game.  Lifelong White Sox fan.  Don't remember a lot of opening day wins.  Don't remember a lot of opening day good weather (like today's high of 39), either.

And this team isn't exactly scintillating.  No big changes from last year's good, but not great, team.  Lost John Danks for awhile on the DL before the season started.  I know one of the ESPN fantasy experts has Paulie Konerko as a "sell"...which may or may not turn out to be true.  Will Alex Rios match last year's career year?  Will Viciedo?  And what about the constant hole at third base since Joe Crede hurt his back what? seven years ago?

If they can pitch, they can contend.  We'll see how that works out.

As for my other team, who I've rooted for since the '64 World Series (as a Midwesterner and a Yankees hater, it was a sweet Series), they look solid.  Some have them getting in as a wild card, again, second to the Cardinals.  No one thinks the Pirates or Brewers have done enough to catch them in the division, and everyone loves the Reds.  Except me.  Though I see why one picks them.

It should be an interesting season, if it holds to form.  From the midwest, we moved east in late '64 and my father became a Washington Senators fan, taking me to a handful of games a year for several years. So I have a nostalgic affection for the Nats.  And everyone has them winning the World Series.

And you know how that works out in baseball.

Ask the Rangers of the last three years.