Okay, I picked the Wood right and even won some money Saturday on the Arkansas Derby with Overanalyze. The Derby field is all but set -- the 20 point Lexington Stakes this weekend doesn't have anyone in it (see DRF) who can push into the Derby field. It looks like "who scratches" determines the field.
My early analysis isn't terribly sophisticated: both Verrazano & Orb have won twice this spring in Derby prep. They've beaten good fields and have made a bunch of money ($840 & $810k). But neither has posted a decent Beyer number -- Verrazano's 101 in the March 9 Tampa Derby is the best either has posted.
Goldencent posted a 105 in winning last weekend's Santa Anita. That's the best number on the board, and it's not impressive.
Overanalyze put an 85 up in winning the Arkansas Saturday. Not Triple Crown race winning stuff.
With so many horses so close, and no one having looked like a Derby winner yet looking at the numbers, there'll be a lot of chatter Derby week about post positions and how the race will run. Who's the early speed? Several seem to be closers, but are they closers at the new, longer distance?
My early call is Revolutionary. I liked him in the Louisiana, which he won with a solid 93 (it's not a great number historically, but a good one this year), and seems to be trending up.
I'd love Goldencents with its good Beyer number, but California horses rarely travel well to the Derby.
And I liked Normandy Invasion in the Wood.
The betting on the Derby should be crazy -- there should be some value to bet on.
Let's see where Derby week and the post positions get us (who wants to be out at 20?). And we'll see what the models on the trip show.
Go Normandy Invasion. For now.
No comments:
Post a Comment