Wood You Give Me a V?

I have been asked if there was going to be a blog on the Wood Memorial.  Really...not making it up.

So, here it is.

Let's start with the Derby picture:  Vyjack and Verrazano are probably in the Derby (assuming they want to make the trek and rough it up with 20 3-yea-olds for a few million in prizes and breeding) and Elnaawi has points and could sneak in.

But none of them has a Beyer speed rating that looks like Derby stuff.  Vyjack won the Gotham Stakes and put up a 93.  Verrazano won the Tampa Derby with a 101.  Experts claim you need to get above 105 to get into the Derby talk.

So, you wonder how good this field is.

The best Beyer number in the field is Verrazano's 105 in February at Gulfstream Park.

These two scores explain Verrazano's 4/5 on the morning line.

There's no money in that.

Maybe you use Verrazano in an exotic (it's the 8), like an 8 with XY.

What else to play?

This is why it's called gambling.

Who will improve on their Beyer numbers?  Who won't?  How fast will the race be run?  How will it be run -- there seems to be early speed (this was Vyjack's rep before the Gotham) -- so who finishes in the longest race of most of the field's career?  Who knows?

This is the way to play it: Normandy Invasion (the 2) across the board -- win, place & show.  At 5:1 on the opening line, there's value there, and with a close 5th in the Risen Star (with a 91 rating) & a 99 in placing 2nd in the Remsen, he's a quality horse.  There's money there.

Exotics?  I'd go 8 over 2 & 4 (Elnaawi).  If you are feeling good and want THE long shot, add #6 Mr Palmer, up from Laurel after a win in the mile and 1/8th Private Terms, or Go Get the Basil, the 9 @ 30:1, with a 93 Beyer rating in mile and 70 yard optional claimer at Aqueduct last month.

Got the dough? How about covering 8, 2, 4, 6 & 5 (Vyjack) in the Superfecta?  8-2 over 4,6,5? or 8,2,4 over 4,6,5?

The good news: it should be a fun race.  There are several horses look like they can win.  The two V's and Normandy Invasion and maybe Mr Palmer way out there.  And some potentially huge exotic numbers.

That's my call.  Normandy Invasion is where the value is.  You heard it here.  If I'm right, tell your friends.  If not, this will disappear (automatically) into the ether. :)