Belmont Bankroll Strategy

Confession: I bet (and lost, of course) over $100 on the Kentucky Derby.  I had some combination of everything -- except Golden Soul (of course).  I was on the road for the Preakness, saving losing a considerable sum again (yeah, I had Oxbow all over the place).  Thus the following thoughts --

If you've missed it, it's Belmont week.  The week of hope and joy for horse racing fans.  Okay, bettors.

You see, this is the week where we hope we make up the money we left in Louisville and Baltimore.

And, full disclosure, yes, I've won decently on the Belmont the last two years.

But this year, it's not about making it up.

It's about controlling what you spend.

My kids want to eat next week.

So the budget for the Belmont is $20.  [Note: this is like $40 on the Derby since the NYRA allows $1 bets where Churchill Downs only goes as low as $2]

So, how to spend my $20.

This is my strategy.  Ponder as you like.  Is it brilliant?  It is if it wins money Saturday.  If not, let's hope, like the opening of a Mission:Impossible episode, this blog burns up automatically.

Here it is:

Premise 1: cover as many horses as possible (without being crazy).  Magic number: 7.
Premise 2: there's money to be made on the exotics.
Premise 3: An Orb-Revolutionary exacta isn't worth betting.  Okay, it's not as rewarding as I'd like.
Premise 4: You can't really cover them all.

So, here is how I'm going to do it.  I don't know who fits where, so we'll use letters for the horses.  Remember, I want to cover A thru G.

WPS on A & B = $6  (these should be at least midrange shots, like 8-1 or better, so the payoff here gets me back my money, almost) [Note: median return on Belmont since 2000 is $25.80]

An exacta box with three horses (C,D,E)= $6. [Note: the same median is $121]

Then a trifecta mix with X, Y/X,Y&F/X,Y, & F & G = $7.  X&Y are the two horses you think will finish on top (you might start with thinking Orb & Revolutionary, the two favorites).  [Median is $766]

This strategy means a lot of hedging, since only the "X,Y" component allows duplication (in other words, say Orb-Revolutionary-Oxbow finish in that order, I'd only win the two ways if X,Y=A or B or C, D or E).  Don't count on winning more than one ways.  Obviously, you want to fill the most likely, and likeable combo in the trifecta slot.  And the WPS is probably 6 & 7 in the odds -- on the ML that's Overanalyze and Palace Malice.  I'll get my $20 back if either wins; if one wins and the other shows...profit.

After thinking this out (more than you'd think was mentally healthy), I think this covers the 7 most likely prospects in a way that could yield cash in hand no matter who wins (this covers at least five different winners) & with some outsiders mixed in, since we know there's always an oddity in the mix in an exotic (and the favorite rarely, rarely wins the Belmont -- graveyard of favorites is its nickname).

That's my strategy.  $19.  Throw in another "win" ticket and I've only lost $20. :)

A worthy goal.

GL all.