Horse Racing Betting Primer

This blog is for the novice horse racing follower (I'm taking two to the track on Saturday) and wants to know something about how "all this is done" --

This is meant to be a quick primer (blog length stretched, probably as there'll be 8-10 headers).  It's based on 30+ years experience attending and betting horse races (I went to my first one in college) & a recently reading of Richard Eng's (the horse racing writer for the Las Vegas paper) Horse Racing for Dummies.  It won't include the etiquette or language of placing a bet.  I will use Saturday's Belmont as an example where applicable as well as the other Triple Crown races this spring.

A major component of all handicapping is The Daily Racing Form (DRF).  The print version used to be ubiquitous at race tracks; you now can get it online (of course) in PDF form.  It is full of almost all the information you need to bet -- except scratches & late changes.   This is short, so I won't run through the info there, or how to read it, except as I go through the basics below.

Eng says first timers, rookies, novices should bet show bets.   This is so you get in the habit, and get the rush, of cashing winning tickets.  It's good advice.  It can make for an inexpensive day.  If you bet the favorite to show all day, you'd end up about even.

Now to the heart of the matter:

Class matters

The Belmont is the top of the rung in racing class.  It's a Grade 1 Stakes, which means it has a huge purse.  Horse races are rated stakes, allowance, or claiming (& denoted so in the DRF).

A horse that has only run in allowance races & runs in a G1 Stakes is probably out of its league.  See Midnight Taboo in the Belmont; his last race was an optional claiming race May 8 @ Belmont, which he didn't win.

This difference is reflected in the Beyer number -- the bold number before the placing at the markers in the race (Midnight Taboo posted an 85 that day, starting 1st, then 5, 4, 4, 5, 2nd by 2 lengths).

Another way to judge this from the DRF is it tells you in the small print in the second column at the top how much was paid for the horse.  Our example, Midnight Taboo, cost $10,000.  Orb $70,000, Incognito $150,000, etc. It's not exact, but it gives you a sense if the horse belongs in this class or not.

Beyer numbers

Eng doesn't explain where Beyer (a DRF writer) gets his number from, but many players use it as an indices.  It shows how horses over different tracks would compare and it's pretty widely viewed as accurate.

One way to handicap a race is to look at the Beyer.  The horse with the highest Beyer number is likely to be a favorite to win.  The DRF puts the highest Beyer number of a horse's career up next to life stats -- races, wins, places, shows, money won, and top Beyer score.

It will take a 100+ to win the Belmont Saturday.  Orb ran a 104 in the Derby; Oxbow a 106 in the Preakness.

Eng says he uses Beyer numbers not to determine the race, but to quickly eliminate horses he shouldn't bet on. In a 14-horse field, that's helpful.  Eliminating several means you can focus on the other end.  If they are going to run in the low 100s, betting a horse that's never cracked 85 is VERY wishful thinking.

Lone speed often wins

Unlike the Belmont, a big slice of horse races at tracks run at 6 furlongs (6F).  As such, speed matters a lot.  For the Belmont, probably not as much.

When looking at how a race shapes up and who to bet, seeing a horse that likes to lead early & may be alone in doing so means a horse worth betting on.  You want to look at the DRF numbers above -- look for someone who is in 1st or 2nd at the quarter & half mile pole.

The Preakness is a classic example of this.  Oxbow went out, not actually very fast (the quarter was 23+, the Derby it was 22+), and no one ever caught him.  It happens a lot -- horses run like hell till someone catches them.

Dropping down matters

This doesn't matter so much for the Belmont, or the stakes races on Saturday, but it does matter.  Note: two horses that were talking Belmont, dropped Saturday to the G3 EasyGoer, the 6th race of the day at Belmont.  Going for a $1 million purse to a $150k one changes their stature.

You can see who's moving up and down.  I've already indicated Midnight Taboo is moving up.  Horses DO move up, but their record of success is far less than the record of someone dropping in class -- from a stakes to an allowance, or allowance to claiming, or $50k claiming to $25k claiming -- or someone dropping in length.

No one on Saturday has run the 12 furlongs of the Belmont.  Everyone will be moving up.  Some more than others.  But if they had run lots of 12s and this was an 8F (a mile), then you'd like the horse, esp if the right hand notes were saying "tired."  It might be the horse is good for a shorter distance.

Good to know the shape of the race -- and envision its outcome

DRF  runs a formulator PP just for this kind of thing.  One of the things that helps you pick a race and who to bet is to envision the race: if you could have seen that no one would push Oxbow in the Preakness, you would have said "he might win."  If you could have seen that Palace Malice was going to be chased by multiple horses for the 22 quarter, the 45 half in the Derby, you would know that the closers, like Orb, Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Normandy Invasion, who do well.

So, study the speed ratings (BTW, Brisnet -- another horse racing stat service -- does scores on pace, class, speed and power; these prove helpful if you can get them).  Study how the horses run in terms of their splits (are they always way down and come on to WPS? are they 1s and 2s and end up lower?).  If you can envision the race correctly, you know how to bet.

For Saturday, a pundit this morning said 5 horses will want to press the lead.  In that scenario, you have to bet on the "closers," like Orb, Revolutionary, Golden Soul...maybe even Unlimited Budget.

Pay attention to track speed (i.e. is it fast or sloppy/muddy?)

Adage: no horse likes having muddy kicked in its face.  So, if there's an "off" track, it changes the dynamics.

Overheard on Derby day: "Vyjack loves the mud, I can't believe he's not a big favorite."  Uh huh.  Never a factor, finished 18th.  This rep was probably based on winning a 7F stakes in December by 5+ lengths at Aqueduct (2nd race in his career designated "sly" after date-venue).  Shows how tricky it is to read the DRF.

Another adage, that goes with the mud in face line, is that early speed wins more often in the mud.  This, of course, changes the last paragraph under "envisioning..." :)

The horse's team matters (sometimes)

There is a reason why people like Todd Pletcher, who has 5 horses in the Belmont (& did in the Derby) gets press.  His horses win a lot.  And he brings with him a quality jockey.  They win a lot, too.  See Joel Rosario on Orb, Gary Stevens (now ancient at 50) on Oxbow, or the fact people bet on Calvin Borel's horse in the Derby.

Rookies in this limelight don't fare well.  Lots of trainers, owners, and jockeys live to just GET to a Triple Crown race.  Actually winning once there...well, that's a whole other step.

It's about the money

This is a conversation I have frequently with JG: it's not about picking, it's about maximizing your money.   Analogy: people often think English majors have an advantage at Scrabble because they know a lot of words, but experts on the game say it's not the words, it's maximizing the points on your tiles & reducing the potential of your opponents' points.  It's more math than vocabulary.

There are two aspects to horse betting: handicapping & betting.  As Eng says, and I agree, it's better to be a good bettor than a good handicapper (assuming you are choosing one).

Here's my latest example: for fun, I looked at Monday's card at Delaware Park (I used to go there, so the fact they run Monday afternoons and few others do makes it appealing) and I wrote down my picks for the last four races.  In a P4, I had 3 of 4 right.  But the way I had it laid out, I would not have cashed a single ticket!  The one I missed -- not a longshot but a solid choice in a cluster of possibilities -- broke the Daily Doubles I had in mind, I obviously wouldn't win the P4, and since the break was in the middle (the 2nd of 4), I wouldn't have won any P3.  And I wouldn't bet any of the 3 I picked because they weren't good enough W's to play (5-2s or 2-1s, etc).  You can pick a lot of winners and never make money.  On the other hand, it only takes one race with a longshot, exacta, trifecta, etc, and you can be ahead for the day (maybe by a lot).

So, strategize the play.  That's why the blog on spending $20 on the Belmont -- you can spend $100 and cover lots of things, but it doesn't guarantee making money.

Remember:  the line (I've never seen anyone do the math) is that only a third of favorites win.  A picker/handicapper who picks a third of races right is doing well, especially if it's about betting, not picking (you obviously can get a third right just by picking the favorite).

Favorites pay better or worse.  Again, this year's Triple Crown series is a perfect example.  Orb went off as favorite in the Derby, jockeying back and forth all afternoon with Revolutionary around 4-1.  That's a good price and worth betting.  He went off as something like a 3-5 favorite in the Preakness.  Not worth betting.

Opening line has Belmont with Orb favorite, again! this time at 3-1.

Rising odds might mean a bet

One thing to watch when betting is the odds.  At Penn National, a few thousands dollars on each race can move the favorite, the odds from worth betting to stay away, etc.  The Belmont will have tens of millions bet, so won't be so volatile.

But let's say third favorite (on the morning line) Oxbow goes from 5-1 to 8-1 as the race nears.  Oxbow becomes a bigger value then, because the objective, knowledgeable handicapper knew where Oxbow belonged.  The public's money doesn't change that.  You can make money betting this trend.

Likewise, a horse goes down v. the line, it's not likely everyone knows something the handicapper, who works at the track and does this professionally, doesn't.  Don't follow the trend.  I'd bet heavily that Unlimited Budget with Rosie Napravnik will get a big "pink" vote with $ Saturday.  My first Derby with my-wife-to-be in 1980 all the women in the party bet on Genuine Risk and none of the men did!  Of course, she won, but you see the point.  It won't be about the numbers in the DRF.

I think that's enough.  This will give you a lot to think about before the Belmont.  The morning talk was about a sloppy track, again.  They admitted it dampened the crowd and enthusiasm, as well as changed handicapping and betting the race.  Everyone will be searching like the person in line who thought he knew something about Vyjack in the slop.  :)

Good luck.