My Take on the Belmont (a short version)

Yesterday I wrote a primer for novice horse bettors in setting up this weekend's big race -- the Belmont Stakes.  Today I want to walk through "the race" with whatever "tips" you pull from that for your betting.

I will start with the obvious (not the last time I state it here): it's going to be wet.  Unless predictions are off, the track will be sloppy.  That changes a lot.

What does it change?

Let's start with Beyer numbers.  Orb ran a brilliant 104 in the slop at the Derby.  Golden Soul posted a 100, Revolutionary a 99.  Freedom Child posted a 99 in the slop the next week at Belmont in winning the Peter Pan by 13 lengths.

On a dry track, that 104 is good.  But Oxbow had a 106 in the Preakness; Revolutionary had a 102 last fall; Overanalyze posted a 99 in the Remsen last November; Unlimited Budget a 98 in the Fairgrounds Oaks in March.

The conversation changes on mud.

Yesterday in the primer blog I said that early speed often wins on muddy tracks, in part because horses don't like having mud thrown in the their face (usually). 

But there are too many horses after the early speed for that to be the probable shape of the race, i.e. "like the Preakness."

Instead, it looks more like a scrum for the lead, leaving the closers to do their thing.

*IF* early speed holds and wins, I like Freedom Child.  That 99 in the Peter Pan contains this line "1 1 1 1 1 1" -- wire to wire.  For a 13 length win in the slop. If they let Freedom Child have the lead at the right pace, they may not catch him.

However, this looks more like the Derby than the Preakness.  Wet track; evenly matched field; maybe 5 horses that want to go out to the lead (Freedom Child, Frac Daddy, Oxbow, Giant Finish, Palace Malice [who ran those lightning early splits of 22/45 in the Derby]), and closers waiting.

In that scenario, you have to like the two Derby favorites, Orb and Revolutionary.  You can't forget Golden Soul, who ended up splitting them, but you wonder about the Soul's development -- the 100 on Derby day was his best race by 15 Beyer points.  Fluke or how well he's developed?  Only the race will tell for sure.

Revolutionary is 0 for 2 against Orb, and lost the one day to both Orb and Freedom Child. 

Got that?  Is tomorrow & the number 9 (as JG says, the Beatles Revolution #9) magic?

Have fun.  Hope for a big handle and some nice winners.

Note on million $ P4 & P6:  Anyone who knows their handicapping, knows that race 8 is the lynchpin to either -- 5 horses with 7 Beyer points in last race separating them.  "Word" is that the 4, Dayatthespa, might not run off turf, making it a bit easier.  But that's the one you have to pick right -- it's the most open of the 6 races.  Cover "ALL"?  GL.