Division Playoffs! Go Big w Confidence Picks this Week!

Week two of the playoffs: more or less fun?

Week one went well for me: 4 for 4 and 26 points (in 66 point league).  Only in 8th place, but I've got 40 points left to win the whole thing.

So, this is the week.

First, the spread on the Broncos and Patriots home games are large.  Two scores large.  I agree -- go big on them.  I'm going 11 on Broncs, 10 on Pats.  Though, warning! I always worry about Pats after layoff.  Remember first game losses in 2010 & 2011?  And this Patriots team, like so many recently, is light on D (25th in yards, 9th in scoring), and not perceived as a great rushing team (though in top ten in yards).

Second, the spread on the Niners and Falcons game is within a field goal, though the Falcon spread is larger than you might expect given various rankings at 2.5 points.  The Falcons game is a tossup, though the loss of their best rush lineman will hurt the Seahawks.  The Falcons, like the Patriots, are worrisome in opening games -- they've lost 4 straight first games.  And they've not been juggernauts late in the year anyway.

I think the Falcons are my "upset" pick this week, going 2 points.

And I think the Niners win over the Packers.  But the Pack might...well, we all have images from two years ago of Aaron Rodgers lighting up everybody and taking home the Lombardi Trophy.  If it's a 30-point per side offensive explosion, I'm not betting on Rodgers losing a shootout to a guy who wasn't starting until six weeks ago.

But this weekend reminded us about playoff football -- the highest scoring team put 24 on the board.  In a game where the winning score is 17, 20, 21 or 24, I feel good about the Niners D, special teams, and running game winning.

I'm wavering here about one thing: how much to put on Niners.  I've got a 9 left to use, and 4-3-1.

Look ahead to the conference championship: how much are you putting on Pats-Broncos?  If the Niners and Falcons win, are you going 9 on Niners in Atlanta?  Not me.

And the Super Bowl.  Broncos-Pats v. who?  Even against the Seahawks, who look to be the least regarded by oddsmakers, are you going 9 on an AFC win?  Not me.

So, I'm tempted to use the 9 on Niners.  It's a gamble.

But isn't that what we are in this for? Gambling.

GL

Wilcard Week Confidence Picks: THE Strategy

First, I sucked it up last week.

Second, I sucked it up in last year's playoff confidence picks.  Remember last year?  Giants at 9-7 sweep to Super Bowl?  Pats, chalking when no one thinks they are "that" good, to the Super Bowl against them?

Third, we all know there'll be at least one upset this weekend.  But is the Redskins, 1 1/2 point home 'dogs, winning an upset?  The Packers, 8 point favs, losing would be a REAL upset.

So, strategically, what to do?  I found that by picking (guessing) one upset because I assume an upset usually means I end up losing two games, not one.  The one I guess wrong about being and upset AND the REAL upset.

So, here's the strategy: chalk.  Packers, Texans, Ravens, Seahawks in that order.  I'd go 8-7-6-5.

That leaves your 11 for whoever goes to Denver next week.  And your 10 for whoever goes to NE (a redux of the Houston slaughter of a few weeks ago?).   And your low numbers to put on whoever plays the Falcons.  If it's the Seahawks, you might go crazy and go 9.

So, be smart: stick with the favorites, knowing you (and most everyone) is going to miss one.

That's my call.  If I'm sitting next week with 26, I'll feel pretty good.  Wouldn't you?

NFL Wildcard Playoffs: First Look

First, a little rant: why isn't the NFL web site the first one to have the wild card game times?  And why, even now (10 AM Monday) is it not the top line?  In fact, if you look at NFL.com, you can't even find the times!  Sad for an organization that prides itself on professionalism and fan-friendliness.

Now, about playoff picks: I start with this -- I just had a very bad week.  My two upset specials, the Lions and 'Boys, lost AND I missed the Colts, Panthers, and Vikings wins.  That's not a good week.

And I have no idea on Monday who wins the four games this weekend.

Game 1: Cincy @ Houston.  Cincy is the hot team here.  Texans have gone sour last couple weeks.  Does playing at home make up for that?  They seem the more talented team.  But...do you take Matt Schaub over Andy Dalton?  Do you know?

Game 2: Rematch of Sunday's thriller in Minneapolis.  Okay, first, since they split in regular season, there's none of that "it's hard to beat a good team three times in one season in the NFL."  Vikings are hot, having beaten back-to-back playoff teams and four straight games.  It might be 20 degrees with wind chill factors in Lambeau Saturday evening.  And there's Aaron Rodgers.  Pickin' against him, or the also great Adrian Peterson?

Game 3: Another "hot v. not" game, with hot Colts visiting dead-in-the-road Ravens.  Does Ray Lewis play enough to psych up that defense?  Will Andrew Luck, who led the league in INT's, going to play like the rookie he is in the big game?  Is their D good enough to keep Joe Flacco from winning a playoff game in his fifth consecutive year?  IDK.

Game 4: Redskins are hot and at home.  Seahawks might be best team in NFC.  No way 'Skins win if this is in Seattle, but it's not.  Rookie QB v. rookie QB. Skins version is clearly hurt.  Good D's.

You get the idea: if you are in confidence picks system, I got no confidence.  Remember, there's always one visiting team upset.  Given these games, it could be any of the four.  Good luck with that.

I'll follow up later in the week as more news comes out about injuries, conditions.

NFL week 17: Who Plays Hard?

Usually the toughest thing to guess is who sits & who plays in the last week of the NFL season. But this year only the Falcons are a cinch -- the bigger question is about playoff-wish-we-weres like the Jets & Steelers. The fact some places have no line on the Steelers tells you it all.

However, the good news is there are several double digit spreads, making our high point picks easy: Broncos, Pats, Niners, Seachickens & Texans (who want a bye desperately).

Upset picks: Lions & Cowboys.

Why? Lions can look good @ times & Bears haven't since before Cutler's injury. It's in Detroit. Lions will play hard to ruin rival's season.

'Boys have post-season to play for. I picked, accurately, against them at home last week, but a hampered RG3 makes this a different game. Boys are used to pressure tight ones. Redskins might get wild card since I see Bears, Vikings losing, too.

Last week I picked 13 of 16, including Rams, Saints, Bengals. Stupid Chargers & Giants.  Need $ this week or season is a bust, although staying ahead of Josh counts for something.

7-11: Boys, Giants, Bills, Titans, Pack.

Guessing: ATL, PIT, SD.

Don't be surprised if Ravens don't beat spread & win in Cincy, tho I'm sentimentally picking Bengals.

NFL Week 16 Confidence Picks: The Playoffs Are Right There, Baby!

Having finished 5th in my 53-person league, I feel confident (double entendre intended) that week 16 will be successful, too.

And this week's schedule seems "easier" than last week's, with a record 6 games between winning teams on both sides, when our league weekly winner picked 10 right; several picked 12 right.  This week expect better.

We always need to find the upsets; this week the places to look for getting ahead of the competition are the Bengals-Steelers & Saints-Cowboys.  The Bengals might be the better team, especially based on last week's performance and the Steelers are favorites based on home field, reputation, and possibly the status of their QB.  The Cowboys are on a roll, but they have beaten no one badly, where the Saints, though on the road with a poorer record, have the capability, as they showed Sunday, to kick backside. These are the difference makers: if the underdogs win and you have 'em, you'll be high in the rankings. If they win...

The Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys, Bears, Giants, Redskins and Vikings all need wins.  The first two play each other and the Giants play a faltering division leader in the Ravens and the Vikings go to the best team of the AFC, the Texans.  Obviously, the Bengals or Steelers win, but only the Bears and Redskins look highly likely to win, making the NFC really crazy that final week.

For this week, let's start with the high point games:

16-12: Broncos, Packers, Texans, Falcons, Patriots;

11-7:  Bears, Dolphins, Skins, Colts, Seahawks;

Pick 'em:  Jets-Chargers, Giants-Ravens, Rams-Bucs.

Low point upsets:  Bengals, Saints.

NFL Confidence Picks Week 15: Go Cam, Again!

New week, old team.

Last week I picked the Panthers to win (okay, I had 1 point on them, so wasn't too confident) and they did.  I picked the Redskins to win & they did -- though that wasn't really an upset.  And, yes, I had the underdog Texans winning.  The NFL can make you look bad.

Remember the Eagles over the Bucs, on the road?  The Chargers over the Steelers, on the road?

Playoff teams: Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Colts, Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Niners.  The Niners go to Patriots -- you know how that Patriots at home at night worked last week.  Giants at Atlanta: go low on Giants, but is this an up or down week? Colts visit Texans: any thought that Monday's night performance is how they look at home against Andrew I'm-not-really-Tom-Brady Luck?

Points 12-16: Texans, Fish, Lions (Cardinals looked awful again last week), Seahawks & Green Bay (Cutler's iffy as I write).

Mid 7-11: Cincy (they did lose and Philly did win & it's a short week), Denver (Ravens heading wrong way; if chasers weren't too, I'd think they weren't making it), Saints, Rams, Panthers (yes, I'm on them again), and Raiders.

Who shows up in Big D?  Big Ben & Killer Bees or Tony last-minute-Romo? This might be the most interesting game of the weekend, though it's a great week for games.

At end of weekend, Bengals may be the division leader, in momentum if not in name.

1 point game: Redskins-Browns.  Really?  RG3 is iffy; Browns offense is iffy; weather is iffy.

Take these words for what they are worth.  Remember what you paid for them.

NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks: Big on Texans & Jags

(Disclaimer: I did NOT win my league last week; I was right on our group average...so I'm the common man searching for answers)

Let's start Week 14 with the basics, again, the "good teams," which we all now see as the division winners plus the Bears & Colts, Bengals, Steelers.

AFC:  Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Broncos.
NFC:  Giants, Packers, Falcons, Niners.

For your highest picks, count on Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons & Niners.

Add playoff contenders Seattle and Tampa to that list (Seattle is at home and Cardinals are 0 for fall & Tampa is home against Eagles who are ditto -- the Phillies won since the Eagles did).

Along with the Eagles and Cardinals, you have to ask yourself where the Chargers, Raiders, Jags, Saints, Chiefs, and Titans are psychologically.  Who's quit?  Who will lose the rest of their games?  The Chargers may push the Steelers but it still looks like a high number pick; the Saints might give the Giants a game but it's in New York in December (good luck with that -- the weather is supposed to be bad); the Jags play the  Jets, though switching QBs might HELP NYJ, and Chiefs got their first win in forever and only go to Cleveland -- not really much worse weather than KC & not a scary team, although they've won last 2.  Finally, Titans are in Indy -- can Indy keep it up?  Will some of Titan talent show up?  

But here's the headline: I'm way back for the season and have two really good weeks in 13.  The way to get ahead of the crowd is to pick high in a game (or two) and win (duh) -- like the Ravens-Skins or Pats-Texans.  The points will be low on this game and evenly distributed (I'm guessing) and if you go 13 on Ravens, 12 on Texans (my picks, tho' with low confidence) and they do win...well, you jump up many notches.

See last night's Giants-Redskins game as an example (though not the best).  If you had Redskins for 12, you'd have jumped a lot of people -- I had them for 2.  The top 5 or 6 in my league had the Skins...and they were the underdog; the next best was the Colts, who also were big underdogs (based on confidence points), and you can see the correlation there.

Looking at the games above, my upset special would be Jags over Jets.  The Jags have played better with Henne at QB & the Jets have sucked with Sanchez; it's the NFL and a road game.  It's not a great pick, but it's the one worth making, beyond extending those two close games above.

I need to pick up at least 10 points on the crowd this week to get near the season money: I'm gambling. Good luck if you are, too.