CFP Week 1 (again): Who Should be in the First Final 4

So, tonight is the FBS committee's first rankings for the 2016 championship playoff.

Before they come out, I will make my call on who SHOULD be in the first final four.  Note: this is NOT a prediction of who should be in the last one (a whole different thing), but a snapshot of now.

First off, let's get this straight: no one-loss team deserves in the F4 when there would now be 4 power 5 conferences with undefeated teams.  So, our current F4 should come from this group: LSU, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Clemson.

Easy enough -- LSU & Clemson are in.

Who else?  Now?

I think Michigan State is #2, based on their record.  I heard on a radio show this morning that "only LSU has beaten two teams in the Top 25" -- well, Sparty beat #7 Oregon in the second game and then #12 Michigan.  So, what gives?

Based on those two wins, they deserve a slot.

Fourth?  TCU.  Based on wins over Minnesota (a modestly decent team) and Kansas St, Texas and West Virginia, the middling teams in Big 12, they have the best resume of the B12 threesome.

But I won't count on that much.  This week's Oak State-TCU game will tell us a lot.

I will say here what will be said ad nauseum (till you're sick) these next few days: there are a lot of games left that will thin the herd, to the point where one suspects we'll be talking about which one-loss team (or teams) should be in the F4.  But, for now, it's those four undefeateds on top.

Stay tune for next week and more comments.   Go Purdue! (I have to keep trying)

Big Ten Hoops: The Stretch Drive

Today's ESPN Bubblewatch opens with the strength of the Big Ten and ends with "It's not the best league, not by a long shot. The next two weeks, though, it might just be the most fun."

True dat! 

The B10, or somehow it's become the B1G, is now the league with the most "bids" in everyone's bracketology.  Jerry Palm at CBS has them set with 8 teams -- which would be a high for the league -- where Lunardi at ESPN (if not a B10 hater, very much an ACC lover) has 7 with Illinois in the next group in.  

If you don't have them memorized, that's Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Michigan St, Ohio St, Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois.  

With two conference games left and the tourney, this should be fun.

Let's admit it: Wisconsin is the class of the league.  And with their win over the Badgers last week, Maryland established themselves as clear #2 -- a loss would have left them in a tie with Purdue for 2nd.  

Maryland and Purdue have been surprises -- MD was picked 10th in preseason, having lost most of last year's starting team.  Michigan St and Iowa have been something of disappointments. 

Now comes crunch time.  That Bubblewatch today says MSU, OSU & Iowa should be in, with Wisconsin and Maryland, but Purdue, IU and ILL have work to do.  Since Purdue and Illinois finish in W. Lafayette on Saturday, that work will be head-to-head.

But, no matter what ESPN says, the B10 has a bunch of teams that could be playing the second weekend of the NCAAs.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 4 or 5 B10 teams make the Sweet 16.  As they say about such things, depends on how they play (will IU hit double-digit threes?) and the match ups (IU has no "big"; Purdue doesn't score well; Maryland isn't overly large, either), but after the grueling B10 season, the tournament may seem relaxing.   

Here's your quick table for the end of season.  Of course, the conference tourney pairings can change (and will) with the last two regular season games, but you can easily seeing a 12-6 Iowa team in the 3 hole, IU losing out to fall to 8th, and Purdue winning out to remain 3rd (don't bet on it), or losing out to fall to...6th?  Wild times.

	B10 Record	BPI	Games Left	1st Game of B10 Tourney (If played today)	Current Seedings (CBS/ESPN)
Maryland	12-4	78	RUT/NEB	IU/MN	3/3
Purdue	11-5	75.3	MSU/ILL	MSU or	10/11
Mich St	10-6	80.3	PU/IU	RUT/NW	7/7
Ohio St	10-6	84.3	PSU/WI	IA or	8/7
Iowa	10-6	75.7	IU/NW	PSU/NEB	7/7
Illinois	8-8	72.2	NEB/PU	MI	11/x
Indiana	9-7	74.1	IA/MSU	MN	7/10

B4 Week 4: Current Scenario has MSU in

I'm not waiting on tomorrow night's Committee revelation (by the way, why does it take them two days? what do they do, watch tape of every game?) -- to show the SEC lovers I'm not an SEC hater, I'm thinking both Alabama and Miss. St. make the CFP.

Why? This assumes both win out (the standard assumption).  Florida State is undefeated, so they should go.  Alabama wins the SEC with 1-loss -- they should go.  Who next?  Oregon wins the Pac-12 with 1-loss, including wins over Mich St, Arizona St or UCLA in Pac-12 championship, etc.  They should go.

Who's next?  Miss St, if they beat Ol' Miss, have a fistful of T25 wins.  Including possibly that one.  Who has TCU beaten?  Baylor? Ohio St?

ESPN's power ranking has MSU 4th.  That's probably right.  And if they win out, they deserve to be in F4.

IF!

However, I doubt if "win out" is what all these teams do.  I suspect of the hopefuls at least two of them lose -- Alabama to Auburn or Georgia, Fl St to someone in the ACC championship game (or even Florida?), Oregon to Oregon St in the Apple Bowl or UCLA or AZ St, Baylor to K-State? TCU to Texas Thanksgiving weekend?  Ohio St to either Michigan (though Brady Hoke has never beaten them) or to Wisconsin (clearly the king of the west today) in B10 championship game.

So, this week, my prediction is for the F4 is Alabama, Miss State, TCU and Florida State.

Quick hit on CFP Week 2: The "jumpers"

I thought it worthwhile to say something about this week's Committee rankings for the College Football Playoff (CFP), especially as there were a couple significant "moves."

First, to those SEC lovers out there, you get a certain satisfaction in the fact that Ol' Miss's loss to Auburn "only" dropped them to #11 -- ahead of 1-loss Big 5 teams Baylor (who beat #6 TCU), Nebraska, and Ohio State (looks like a B10 diss).

However, I will repeat what I hinted at last week: I don't see a second SEC West team making the CFP with 2 losses.  If the SEC champ has 2 losses (unlikely), then maybe, but there will be enough teams with 1 loss (and conference champions) to fill the field before going to a 2-loss Auburn or Alabama team (or Miss St, if they lost to Ol' Miss and Alabama).

Next, how does Arizona St jump from 14 to 9 with an overtime win at home over Utah, who this week is 17th (the 4th 2-loss team in the rankings)?  I don't know.  Notre Dame advocates claim it is a diss to them, which may be true, but seems irrelevant since ND can make it right where such things should be corrected -- on the field, and this weekend.  ND obviously blows ASU back with a win in Tempe Saturday.

ASU's jump seems to be the Committee's gesture toward the notion that a 1-loss PAC-12 champ belonging in the CFP.  It would be hard to get there from 14th place (they would be behind Ol' Miss, right?).

Next next, is KSU's jump.  Again, it looks like the committee prepping for the F4 -- KSU has to be ahead of Michigan State (who they jumped) to be "next in" if they beat TCU in Ft. Worth Saturday.  This keeps them from being blocked.  Not sure KSU deserves that, but until we see Saturday's result, we can't determine that.

Here's what the Committee isn't doing -- projecting ahead.  This week, here's my projected F4, with seedings:  1) Miss St (assume they win out and go undefeated); 2) FL State (same); 3) Oregon (win out); 4) TCU (same, assuming a win at home Saturday, their last T25 game, and on).   Caveat: this assumes neither Auburn nor Alabama wins out, either of which could leave 2 1-loss (or better) SEC West teams.   If one does, TCU would be in jeopardy.

It's another great week for CFB, with Mich St-Ohio St, Ala-LSU, Oregon-Utah, KSU-TCU, Baylor-OU, ND-ASU.  Enjoy!

Ohio State in First Final Four: a Brief Case

Hello! I am back.

It's been an interesting fall, but I have been too busy to put any thoughts here.

However, the inaugural CFB Final Four announcement generated water-cooler talk that I thought needed some clarification and follow up.

The big one seems to be this (based on ESPN and especially this morning's Mike & Mike): why is Ohio State ranked so low and do they have a chance to make it to the Final Four?

I'm ignoring the first question, which is pretty irrelevant, and going to give a quick answer and analysis to the second -- which will indicate OSU CAN get into the Final Four easily enough.

I begin with this: I am not an OSU fan!

That said.

Simply: a one-loss Big Ten champion will be in the Final Four.  If Ohio State wins out, there will be a spot for them.  That's a big "if," but that's the short version.

Long version:  they are 16th.  Who's ahead of them?  Let's start with the basics -- Michigan St and Nebraska are 8th and 15th and they play them.  Win out and BUMP! BUMP! They are up to 14th (remember they only have to be 4th).

Now, out of their control, 4 of the top 6 are in the SEC West; they have to play each other and the winner of the division plays the SEC East winner, likely Georgia, in the SEC championship game.  For simplicity, let's have Miss St (current #1) win out, including SEC championship game.  Auburn (#3) also plays Georgia (#11).  It is hard to imagine of those 5 teams, two end up with 1 loss.  The Big Ten champ with one loss should get in ahead of a 2-loss SEC team.  Move OSU up 4 slots.

Also ahead of them are 3 PAC-12 teams; they play each other, at least the Arizona's and Oregon v. one of them (or Utah) in the championship game.  One of them comes out with 1-loss, joining the SEC team in final four, but knocking 2 more behind OSU.

TCU and K-State play; K-State plays Baylor.  Again, only one of those will come out with 1 loss.  Two more behind OSU.

If Notre Dame wins out, beating USC and Arizona St, they may block OSU (or any B10 team).  But wins over MSU and Neb probably leaps the Irish, if they win out.

This scenario would put the SEC winner, Florida State, OSU, Oregon/Az/ASU, & TCU/Baylor/KSt in final four, assuming one of each of those triads wins out.

So, it's not unlikely that, IF OSU wins out, they play, maybe as high as the #2 seed.

I don't think they win out, but no one should think sitting at 16 now precludes them in any way from getting there.

My money is on Michigan St. running the table instead of the Buckeyes, and ending up ahead of both the PAC-12 and Big 12 champs.

But we are talking "Is Ohio State out of it now?"  Absolutely not.

Why Aren't More Teams Sellers (one week from trade deadline)?

Given my current schedule, I watch a fair amount of baseball, listen to MLB XM radio, and watch/listen to enough ESPN to have a fair idea of what's going on in Major League Baseball.

So, what's going on in Major League Baseball?

Why aren't more teams "sellers"?

The Padres and the Cubs have sold.  Huston Street and Chad Headley and Jeff Samardzija were hot commodities, quality players with value, and they've been moved.

But there are a handful of teams that seem to be questioning whether they should sell.

Caveats:  I'm not saying give guys away.  Don't make the deal the Padres made for Headley (which looks like a dump, not a real value for value trade).  But take calls, and, even, make some.  Say, "I would move X for Y" and see if you can make your team -- next year or the year after -- better.

Next, one of the pundits I respect says trading is about self-assessment first.  Honest self-assessment is needed here.  The Rays have been hot.  But do they have the every day lineup to make up 8 games on the Orioles?  No.  Do they have pieces people would want? Yes.

Finally, I'm not proposing deals, a la Jim Bowden on ESPN.  I'm just saying STOP acting like you have a team that you don't have and that you aren't interested.  Be interested in a trade.  Be very interested.

With that said:

Let's start with the TB Rays.  If you have been watching the standings, they have gone from 18 games under .500 six weeks ago to "only" 5 under now, and "only" 8 games back.

Are they catching the Orioles, who seem likely to win the division?  No.  Are they catching the Mariners for the last one-game playoff spot?  No.  There are too many bodies ahead of them.  The people who do odds on these things have them like a 6-8% chance for the division.

Slim.

So, trade David Price.  Go ahead, do it.

Then the Red Sox.  Same division as Rays, worse odds.

Forget winning this year.  You won last year in a magical year; this year the magic is gone.

Trouble is, the Red Sox have no one to trade.  Jake Peavy?  Right now he looks about out of gas -- a 4th or 5th starter.  You aren't get a Samardzija package of prospects for him.

To the National League.

The team that keeps talking like they aren't ready to "sell" are the Phillies.

Are you kidding me?!?!?!?  Those oddsmakers put the Phillies chances at less than 1%.   Yes, worse than 1 in a 100.

And they have pieces to trade.  Cliff Lee.  Cole Hamels.  Chase Utley.  Jimmy Rollins. Geez, give up on Ryan Howard, if anyone will take him.  Marlon Rent-a-Bat Byrd?  Domonic Brown?  Sold.  Chooch Ruiz?  Sold.  Jonathan Papelbon?  Are you kidding??!!?!?

Here's my cutting edge push: Reds.

People keep talking them up.  They've lost 5 straight out of the break and are in 4th -- in the division!!!!  They don't have Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto for maybe the rest of the season.

Bets are they don't jump three teams and win the division.  Look at the NL wild card standings and you see that now the Dodgers, Braves and Cards are tied for the 2 spots.  That puts the Pirates ahead of them, too, so they have to jump 3 teams to get a WC, too.

Sell.

As I said, teams have to do a quality self-assessment.  What do we need to win next year, or the next?  What can we get for Price, Utley, Hamels, Votto? that can make you a multi-year contender in the future?

We'll keep an eye on movement.  I suspect the Red Sox-Rays series this weekend forces one of them into the "sell" mode.  I think the Reds need to turn it around or...and the Phillies, well, they may not wake up.  Welcome to Philadelphia fandom, again, for another generation.  Remember, this is what it was like between Mike Schmidt and the five-year run they started in the mid-00s.

Tiger & Jack & the Majors

So, like many, I have just spent some part of the last four days both watching Rory McIlroy show us what the future of golf looks like and watching to see if Tiger Woods can resurrect the recent past and give the ghost of Jack Nicklaus a chase.

He couldn't.

One of ESPN's golf commentators just pointed out (it's "common knowledge") that Tiger is now, for the first time, behind Jack in the pursuit of 18 majors.  Jack won his 15th at an age a month earlier than Tiger's current age.  Remember (I do) Jack's last at age 46?  Pure muscle memory and reflex.

The problem is, I don't think Tiger has any muscle memory anymore.  Yes, he probably remembers the shots he hit, and how, to win.  But he's not that Tiger.  He's on his third swing (I'm not going to act like I understand the technicalities) change.  So what muscle memory does he have?

I know this: he and I neither can put our driver in play effectively.  I watched Friday as he hit more than one driver (what he hit on Friday) and hit it all over the yard.  The one hole he pulled what I do often enough -- hit the first OB on the right and then in the rubbish was left with the second.

More than one analyst has pointed out he can't do that and hope to compete with guys like McIlroy, who was bombing it 350 down the middle with his driver.  Even Tiger's 300 yard drive on 18 with his 3 wood pales in comparison to what McIlroy, Adam Scott, Sergio, Dustin Johnson do regularly.

There are other missing parts.

He doesn't make the putts he used to.  As one of ESPN's on-air voices said "he used to make a couple 30 footers a round."  He doesn't anymore.  It's the difference between being 6 over and being 2 under.  Add eliminating drivers OB or in a gorse bush (the Saturday spray) and you are getting close to a contender.

Here's the other thing: his body.

Yes, I'd like to have his body.  He's sculpted.  But his swing has always been full of torque and violence and the injuries from pre-2008 and since have all been about that torque -- he stresses everything from his achilles through the knee up into the back with that swing.   No less of an expert than my physical therapist says that he'll never avoid injury again with that swing -- something else will break down sooner rather than later.

So, as for catching Jack, I will repeat what many before me have said: winning 5 majors after you are 38 (Tiger's age) has never been done, with the exception of Ben Hogan, the late bloomer.  5 majors is Phil Mickelson's career.  In other words, you have to have Phil's Hall of Fame career AFTER you are 38 to catch Jack.

It was never certain. But now it looks terribly unlikely he can get there.  Can he/will he win another major?  Probably.  Like Jack at 46, you can imagine he'll catch magic in the bottle again.  Maybe a couple more times.  But 5?   Unlikely.

But it won't keep any of us from watching.  It's fascinating to see the changes in the perception, and the game, of the greatest golfer of this generation, the greatest since Nicklaus and one of the handful of greatest to ever touch a club.

But he's no longer THAT Tiger Woods.  And that's still fascinating.