Thursday, November 14, 2013

538.com Week 11 Confidence Number

If Nate Silver can predict (and accurately) the number of electoral votes...

Dbrolaw (whose blog this isn't) and I often speculate on whether this will be a good week or a bad week based on how tough we think the games are to pick any given week.

The magic number this week is 113 (out of 135).

Why?

Get this JG: it's an algorithm.

If you combine the winning number each week for our confidence group, and do an algorithm with the number of spread favorites, and it gives you a trend line; this week's mix of BIG home & road favorites (4 and 1) and FG home & road favorites (3 and 2) & you end up with 1 high number loser (14?) and two low number losers (5 and 3?).

The average this week should be 84.  I hope my score is closer to 113 than 84.

Go Broncs.

Go Colts?

No comments:

Post a Comment