On Top in College Picks (for Now)

After the third week of college football picking, I wrote a blog on how to be last in your group while trying (blog).

Now, I'm going to tell you I'm in first place.  By four picks, which, in a drop a week league, is a lot.  I could screw it up, but I don't think it'd be easy to do so.

I wish I knew how I've done it.  I won this week with 11 out of 18.  You say "that's not good," but when you are picking against the spread and not picking which games -- there'd be a number of them I'd duck as too tough -- anything over .500 is good.  We've agreed among ourselves that picking against  the spread is almost a coin toss.

Here's what I know about this season: Alabama and Florida State have separated themselves.  If they don't end up in the national championship game, I'd be stunned.  Alabama has Auburn in the Iron Bowl, which is the toughest test either faces.

I admit I'd love to see Baylor or Ohio State in the championship game, just to mix it up some.  But Ohio State hasn't played anyone and won't -- I heard commentators last night saying they had to hope Michigan State won out so they played someone good in the Big Ten championship game.  Frankly, I want to see the line on that game; if Sparty is getting more than a field goal, I will probably take them.  Not exactly a big time contender.

Baylor?  They score a lot.  This week's game with Ok State may be in the 100s for total points -- 52-49?  If the Bears win that, well, some claim Texas might give them a game, but I doubt it.  I'd give two touchdowns at this point.  If they win out, they have a chance, but their non-conference season isn't much & the Big 12 isn't loaded with Top 25 teams -- it's Oklahoma, Ok State & Baylor.  If Texas gets there by the Baylor game, it's a joke.

College football is great.  The Notre Dame-Pitt game epitomizes why.  Pitt hadn't played a really good game all year, including a loss to Navy just last week, and the opening game shellacking by Fl State.  Notre Dame was hanging, with one loss, to hopes of a BCS.

Then, it's a tough game, ND makes a mistake, Pitt turns it into two touchdowns and momentum, and you have an upset.

On the other hand, you have a great game like Alabama-LSU.  And Alabama grinds to a two TD lead, but gives up the 80+ yard kickoff return, and...

LSU doesn't convert.  Mo doesn't really shift, and the Tide rolls to the other end and seals the game, more.

Fun to watch.  Unexpected (didn't we all think LSU would be within a score late?).

So, we'll keep watching.  And picking.  But it's Tide v. the Seminole chop at this point for the title.