Confidence Picks Week 11 of NFL -- 538.com-ish

This blog is to help enlighten those doing confidence picks (NFL) this week (and beyond?).  If you don't understand what "confidence picks for NFL" are, read no farther.

As I pondered this week's picks, I thought I was doing some Nate Silver numerical analysis and thought I'd share.

First, notable in Week 11 of the NFL is that 9 games (Colts-Titans, Skins-Eagles, Ravens-Bears, Jets-Bills, Lions-Steelers, Falcons-Bucs, Chargers-Dolphins, 49ers-Saints, Pats-Panthers) have 3 point spreads or less (we'll call them FG games).  Likewise, 6 games have 6 point or more spreads (we'll call them BIG favorites).  

So, I wondered: are the FG games harder to pick (for confidence) than the BIG games?

You understand, right?  Those 6 games should be 16-15-14-13-12-11, right?

And the other nine 10 through 2, right?

Ah...

Here's this season's data:

In 56 BIG games, the favorites have only won 44 times, or 75%.  In 52 FG games, the favorites have won 31 times, or 60%.

I found this rather shocking.

First, I assumed that being a BIG favorite would be a much better bet to win.  (JG axiom: in confidence, the first thing is to pick the games right; in the history of my confidence pick group, NO ONE has ever picked every game in a week right.  The weighting is secondary -- pick right!)

Second, I thought there'd be a bigger differential between BIG favorites and FG favorites.

Third, EVERY week, one BIG favorite has lost.

What's that mean this week?  One of those 6 will lose.

No, I can't tell you which one.

But, the corollary is this: the other 9 will run more true to form than you would think.

And, to go a step farther, (assuming you followed this) -- home FG favorites win 64% of the time.  Home BIG favs only win 73% of the time.

Better is that BIG road favs win 84% of the time (this makes sense as they are almost a touchdown, or more, favorites over the standard 3-pt bias for home field).  As the Cardinals are the only team in this category, I'm feeling like they should be my 16 this week.

As road FG favs only win 54% of the time (a bit surprising as being the favorite over the 3-pt bias should mean more advantage), it moves the Chargers, Falcons, and Lions into the lower end of the spectrum.

That's what I've got.

I need a big week.  Good luck to you, too.