This Week's confidence pick Guesses (NFL Week 12)

Last week, in a misguided "Nate Silver moment," I tried to predict the week in the NFL.

I said that of 6 "BIG (6 pt favorite or more) spread teams", one would lose.  One did.  The Texans.  We now know that the Texans are...oh, no...(more later).

I said that of the 9 FG or less favorites, at least two would lose (three did).

I said the average confidence pick score would be 83.  It was 82.75 in my group.

I said the high score would be 113.  Someone in my group only missed one game and had a 126.  Can't predict someone being crazy good.

So, where's that put us this week?

By my research (Yahoo NFL odds), there are only 3 BIG games: NOLA-ATL, Jax-Hou, TB-Det.  As the Saints are on the road, road BIGs are pretty automatic.  Make that your 16 (you heard it here).

Houston?  Remember -- only 73% of home BIGs win.  Just sayin'.

On the FG end, this week there are only 6 of those (compared to 9 last week, a season high).  Of those, 5 of those are home (StL, CLE, Oak, AZ, NYG), and one on the road (DEN).  Home FGs only win 71% of the time.  Pick one or two of them to lose.  Denver is a 50-50 shot to win, as road FGs win only 54% of the time.

Prediction on points?  With fewer FGs (three road FGs all lost last week), AND fewer BIGs, it looks like a good week should be better than last week -- an average around 90 points.

I can't predict someone will go 14 for 15 (or this week 13 for 14), but given the trend lines, 120 isn't out of the question this week -- losing one BIG game (assuming they are 16, 15, 14), or one of the 3+ to 5+ games (SD@KC, CAR@MIA, NYJ@BAL, SF@WAS) and an FG, probably the Denver game.

That's what notNateSilver has this week.  GL.