Opening reminder: it's not about picking the winner; it's about making money.
With that in mind, I'll admit Triple Crown season 2013 has been disastrous. Bombed on the Derby (oh, yeah, we ALL had Golden Soul), then didn't foresee it was Oxbow who would knock off Orb in the Preakness (the fact the Stevens ridden horse was 8th out of 9 in the betting indicates how many others saw it coming too). That leaves the Belmont, the "Test of Champions."
I've won on the Belmont the last two years. It means nothing except a certain positive vibe.
Here's the early analysis. Yes, I like Revolutionary. I've seen early guesstimates of 4-1 odds, which will do fine for my win ticket. I'll also play him in the exotics.
But don't bet with me: remember, I've gotten killed in the first two.
But there's a lot of money to be made, AGAIN, and we need to get on it. Last year over $50 million was bet on the race. Imagine some of that being YOURS (okay, MINE!).
The Crown Contenders
Orb: Won the Derby in the slop. Remember the Derby was a race almost as strategically messy as the Preakness: Palace Malice went out in a pace that burned up a lot of the field. Orb shot through and won the day. People thought he was a super horse. May 18th showed differently. But he's good and will probably be the favorite in the race, though at something like the 5-1 odds in the Derby (one early line has it 7-2), not the 3-5 of Maryland.
Oxbow: Won the Preakness as the next-to-last betting (un)favorite. Allowed to gallop slowly to the front for the first six furlongs, then hung on. Probably more speed than length -- the extra 5/16ths is probably way too much for him.
I worry about both having run all these tough races in such short time. I still believe (despite the Preakness results) most classic-bred three-year-olds aren't ready for either a mile and a half OR the grueling three races in five week (and sometimes more in eight or nine) period. These two have won the first two legs, so I understand their desire to run at Belmont. Why Will Take Charge is running is one of life's mysteries.
The Derby Also-Rans
Revolutionary, Overanalyze, Golden Soul, Palace Malice, Giant Finish: I like Revolutionary in the Derby (finished a solid 3rd) and I like that trainer Todd Pletcher waited for this race. Means he's more rested than the two O's; I also think he's better than other 4. He'll be the second favorite (early line has 4-1). One blogger has Overanalyze as his money pick; given his one on, one off record, maybe it's a good pick. If he's 8 or 12 to 1, I'll have money on him, too. As for Golden Soul, didn't buy it in the Derby, don't buy it now. Maybe trainer Dallas Stewart knows something. And Palace Malice was the speed in the Derby; speed burns out about six furlongs in this race and you end up as the title says "also-ran."
The Filly
I don't see why Unlimited Budget, who I bet on in the Oaks, is running here. Yes, this year's 3-year-old filly crop may be a lot better than their brothers, but this is a huge test. Story writers love the version where Pletcher does another Rags to Riches & pulls one out with the unknown filly, but this ain't that horse. I won't be betting it.
They've Been Waiting
Code West & Freedom Child both seem to have sat out the first two Crown races to end up here. Is it strategy or coincidence? Child is the more interesting of the two, with its huge win at the Peter Pan on this same track. But that race was not at a mile and a half and none of those horses are Orb, Revolutionary, Overanalyze, Palace Malice, Oxbow...need I go on? Code West could surprise. But not likely.
Why? Really?!?!
At this point, it's Always in a Tiz and Midnight Taboo on this list. There's always some of these coming to Belmont, having found some form elsewhere while the heavy-hitters have run at Churchill and/or Pimlico. Once in awhile one of them catches lightening in a bottle; I'm betting against either one of these doing it this year.
Strategy
The first two races have shown how strategy makes the race. Everyone knew post position mattered in the Derby; everyone knew the Preakness was a pace race. The Belmont is so long that post position can be overcome -- in the grind, there's plenty of time to find space and get to the front on the big track. A fast early pace like the Derby might kill, but jockeys will be holding back to have something for the end, anyway, so that may not be as big a factor.
It'll be interesting to see things like does Oxbow go out to lead, again? How does Orb run, having gotten a bad position holding back in the Preakness? Where do the chargers like Revolutionary and Overanalyze start their charge, and from how far back? And can the filly really hold up against this competition with this length?
Let's see where we are after the draw next Wednesday. But, again, it ought to be fun.
No comments:
Post a Comment