First, I have to admit I have probably not taken the advice found in Zen & the Art of Finding a Kentucky Derby Winner as much to heart as I should have. So, this is probably "overcooked."
Second, the PPs are in for the Derby. And the post positions. And the odds. There's a lot of info out there. It's time to sift through it.
Nate Silver-like (if you have to ask who he is, you should not read on), I have constructed an algorithm to tell me who is really likely to come out of the 20-horse pack Saturday and win the Derby. This isn't about betting (sometimes one bets against the best horse to make money -- though that's unlikely on Saturday in the Derby), it's about winners.
Using a combination of Beyer scores (this will assume belief that they mean something), post position, & betting odds, I have come up with a number.
And that number makes Goldencents the number one horse on the board.
It puts Revolutionary 2, Will Take Charge 3, and Normandy Invasion 4. Squeeze another horse into your trifecta or superfecta and we're talking (surprisingly) Mylute.
I could tweak the algorithm.
But, given the use of Beyer scores, it's not surprising these horses rise to the top.
Goldencents ran a 105 at the Santa Anita, his last race. Verrazano has a 105 this year, too, but three races ago, and the win in the Wood was "only" a 95. Will Take Charge's last race was "only" a 95, but he's trending the other way.
That's my early numerical analysis. I'll have betting blogs tomorrow afternoon.
But here's my first take at Churchill's P6 Saturday: 6-6-3-8,9-3,8-8. 8-8-8 to finish? Crazy.
More tomorrow, after I see the Belmont PPs.
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