Derby Day Bets (Revised)

[Revised with more input, Sat. morning]

Today is the big day.  The morning weather report, unlike the last few days, says only "light showers," which means the track should still be fast for the race.  I looked at "sloppy" and most of the field has never run in sloppy conditions: only five have run in sloppy conditions.  Itsmyluckyday won at 5F & Vyjack won at 7F.  On good tracks, Revolutionary, Giant Finish, Falling Sky & Charming Kitten have wins. 

As they say, all bets are off here if the track is not "fast."

So, here's what I think we should do (I'm going to keep it simple and keep it as inexpensive as I can):

Go for your W's on Revolutionary (3) & Goldencents (8)
Put PS $ on Mylute (6), Normandy Invasion (5) & Palace Malice (10)

Add any of second three to 3,8 on exacta box.

For your trifecta, do this: 3,8,X/3,8,6,5,10/3,8,6,5,10.

Superfecta:  the play is to go 6 deep, with 3,8,6,5,10 & 16.  That's $240 investment.

Lighter (less $$)?  Try 3,8,16/3,8,6,5,10/3,8,6,5,10,16/3,8,6,5,10,16.  That's $144.

Smaller still?  3,8/3,5,8,10/3,5,8,10/3,5,8,10.   That's $12.

Onto our other choices:

P6 @ Churchill:  8-1,6-3-8-8,9-3,8.  In Woodford (10th) long shot special is #5 Swift Warrior.

Derby + 2 P3: 3,8-8(+3)-1(+8).  Money play: 4 (Frontside 30:1) in the 8th.

P6 @ Belmont: 3-2,7-1,3-5,8-6,7-1,6.  Money plays: 6 (Abilio 15:1) in 7th; 10 (Ghostly Vision 12:1) in 8th.

That should spend down your nut. Good luck with the exotics -- there's serious money to be had here.