B4 Week 4: Current Scenario has MSU in

I'm not waiting on tomorrow night's Committee revelation (by the way, why does it take them two days? what do they do, watch tape of every game?) -- to show the SEC lovers I'm not an SEC hater, I'm thinking both Alabama and Miss. St. make the CFP.

Why? This assumes both win out (the standard assumption).  Florida State is undefeated, so they should go.  Alabama wins the SEC with 1-loss -- they should go.  Who next?  Oregon wins the Pac-12 with 1-loss, including wins over Mich St, Arizona St or UCLA in Pac-12 championship, etc.  They should go.

Who's next?  Miss St, if they beat Ol' Miss, have a fistful of T25 wins.  Including possibly that one.  Who has TCU beaten?  Baylor? Ohio St?

ESPN's power ranking has MSU 4th.  That's probably right.  And if they win out, they deserve to be in F4.

IF!

However, I doubt if "win out" is what all these teams do.  I suspect of the hopefuls at least two of them lose -- Alabama to Auburn or Georgia, Fl St to someone in the ACC championship game (or even Florida?), Oregon to Oregon St in the Apple Bowl or UCLA or AZ St, Baylor to K-State? TCU to Texas Thanksgiving weekend?  Ohio St to either Michigan (though Brady Hoke has never beaten them) or to Wisconsin (clearly the king of the west today) in B10 championship game.

So, this week, my prediction is for the F4 is Alabama, Miss State, TCU and Florida State.

Quick hit on CFP Week 2: The "jumpers"

I thought it worthwhile to say something about this week's Committee rankings for the College Football Playoff (CFP), especially as there were a couple significant "moves."

First, to those SEC lovers out there, you get a certain satisfaction in the fact that Ol' Miss's loss to Auburn "only" dropped them to #11 -- ahead of 1-loss Big 5 teams Baylor (who beat #6 TCU), Nebraska, and Ohio State (looks like a B10 diss).

However, I will repeat what I hinted at last week: I don't see a second SEC West team making the CFP with 2 losses.  If the SEC champ has 2 losses (unlikely), then maybe, but there will be enough teams with 1 loss (and conference champions) to fill the field before going to a 2-loss Auburn or Alabama team (or Miss St, if they lost to Ol' Miss and Alabama).

Next, how does Arizona St jump from 14 to 9 with an overtime win at home over Utah, who this week is 17th (the 4th 2-loss team in the rankings)?  I don't know.  Notre Dame advocates claim it is a diss to them, which may be true, but seems irrelevant since ND can make it right where such things should be corrected -- on the field, and this weekend.  ND obviously blows ASU back with a win in Tempe Saturday.

ASU's jump seems to be the Committee's gesture toward the notion that a 1-loss PAC-12 champ belonging in the CFP.  It would be hard to get there from 14th place (they would be behind Ol' Miss, right?).

Next next, is KSU's jump.  Again, it looks like the committee prepping for the F4 -- KSU has to be ahead of Michigan State (who they jumped) to be "next in" if they beat TCU in Ft. Worth Saturday.  This keeps them from being blocked.  Not sure KSU deserves that, but until we see Saturday's result, we can't determine that.

Here's what the Committee isn't doing -- projecting ahead.  This week, here's my projected F4, with seedings:  1) Miss St (assume they win out and go undefeated); 2) FL State (same); 3) Oregon (win out); 4) TCU (same, assuming a win at home Saturday, their last T25 game, and on).   Caveat: this assumes neither Auburn nor Alabama wins out, either of which could leave 2 1-loss (or better) SEC West teams.   If one does, TCU would be in jeopardy.

It's another great week for CFB, with Mich St-Ohio St, Ala-LSU, Oregon-Utah, KSU-TCU, Baylor-OU, ND-ASU.  Enjoy!

Ohio State in First Final Four: a Brief Case

Hello! I am back.

It's been an interesting fall, but I have been too busy to put any thoughts here.

However, the inaugural CFB Final Four announcement generated water-cooler talk that I thought needed some clarification and follow up.

The big one seems to be this (based on ESPN and especially this morning's Mike & Mike): why is Ohio State ranked so low and do they have a chance to make it to the Final Four?

I'm ignoring the first question, which is pretty irrelevant, and going to give a quick answer and analysis to the second -- which will indicate OSU CAN get into the Final Four easily enough.

I begin with this: I am not an OSU fan!

That said.

Simply: a one-loss Big Ten champion will be in the Final Four.  If Ohio State wins out, there will be a spot for them.  That's a big "if," but that's the short version.

Long version:  they are 16th.  Who's ahead of them?  Let's start with the basics -- Michigan St and Nebraska are 8th and 15th and they play them.  Win out and BUMP! BUMP! They are up to 14th (remember they only have to be 4th).

Now, out of their control, 4 of the top 6 are in the SEC West; they have to play each other and the winner of the division plays the SEC East winner, likely Georgia, in the SEC championship game.  For simplicity, let's have Miss St (current #1) win out, including SEC championship game.  Auburn (#3) also plays Georgia (#11).  It is hard to imagine of those 5 teams, two end up with 1 loss.  The Big Ten champ with one loss should get in ahead of a 2-loss SEC team.  Move OSU up 4 slots.

Also ahead of them are 3 PAC-12 teams; they play each other, at least the Arizona's and Oregon v. one of them (or Utah) in the championship game.  One of them comes out with 1-loss, joining the SEC team in final four, but knocking 2 more behind OSU.

TCU and K-State play; K-State plays Baylor.  Again, only one of those will come out with 1 loss.  Two more behind OSU.

If Notre Dame wins out, beating USC and Arizona St, they may block OSU (or any B10 team).  But wins over MSU and Neb probably leaps the Irish, if they win out.

This scenario would put the SEC winner, Florida State, OSU, Oregon/Az/ASU, & TCU/Baylor/KSt in final four, assuming one of each of those triads wins out.

So, it's not unlikely that, IF OSU wins out, they play, maybe as high as the #2 seed.

I don't think they win out, but no one should think sitting at 16 now precludes them in any way from getting there.

My money is on Michigan St. running the table instead of the Buckeyes, and ending up ahead of both the PAC-12 and Big 12 champs.

But we are talking "Is Ohio State out of it now?"  Absolutely not.

Why Aren't More Teams Sellers (one week from trade deadline)?

Given my current schedule, I watch a fair amount of baseball, listen to MLB XM radio, and watch/listen to enough ESPN to have a fair idea of what's going on in Major League Baseball.

So, what's going on in Major League Baseball?

Why aren't more teams "sellers"?

The Padres and the Cubs have sold.  Huston Street and Chad Headley and Jeff Samardzija were hot commodities, quality players with value, and they've been moved.

But there are a handful of teams that seem to be questioning whether they should sell.

Caveats:  I'm not saying give guys away.  Don't make the deal the Padres made for Headley (which looks like a dump, not a real value for value trade).  But take calls, and, even, make some.  Say, "I would move X for Y" and see if you can make your team -- next year or the year after -- better.

Next, one of the pundits I respect says trading is about self-assessment first.  Honest self-assessment is needed here.  The Rays have been hot.  But do they have the every day lineup to make up 8 games on the Orioles?  No.  Do they have pieces people would want? Yes.

Finally, I'm not proposing deals, a la Jim Bowden on ESPN.  I'm just saying STOP acting like you have a team that you don't have and that you aren't interested.  Be interested in a trade.  Be very interested.

With that said:

Let's start with the TB Rays.  If you have been watching the standings, they have gone from 18 games under .500 six weeks ago to "only" 5 under now, and "only" 8 games back.

Are they catching the Orioles, who seem likely to win the division?  No.  Are they catching the Mariners for the last one-game playoff spot?  No.  There are too many bodies ahead of them.  The people who do odds on these things have them like a 6-8% chance for the division.

Slim.

So, trade David Price.  Go ahead, do it.

Then the Red Sox.  Same division as Rays, worse odds.

Forget winning this year.  You won last year in a magical year; this year the magic is gone.

Trouble is, the Red Sox have no one to trade.  Jake Peavy?  Right now he looks about out of gas -- a 4th or 5th starter.  You aren't get a Samardzija package of prospects for him.

To the National League.

The team that keeps talking like they aren't ready to "sell" are the Phillies.

Are you kidding me?!?!?!?  Those oddsmakers put the Phillies chances at less than 1%.   Yes, worse than 1 in a 100.

And they have pieces to trade.  Cliff Lee.  Cole Hamels.  Chase Utley.  Jimmy Rollins. Geez, give up on Ryan Howard, if anyone will take him.  Marlon Rent-a-Bat Byrd?  Domonic Brown?  Sold.  Chooch Ruiz?  Sold.  Jonathan Papelbon?  Are you kidding??!!?!?

Here's my cutting edge push: Reds.

People keep talking them up.  They've lost 5 straight out of the break and are in 4th -- in the division!!!!  They don't have Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto for maybe the rest of the season.

Bets are they don't jump three teams and win the division.  Look at the NL wild card standings and you see that now the Dodgers, Braves and Cards are tied for the 2 spots.  That puts the Pirates ahead of them, too, so they have to jump 3 teams to get a WC, too.

Sell.

As I said, teams have to do a quality self-assessment.  What do we need to win next year, or the next?  What can we get for Price, Utley, Hamels, Votto? that can make you a multi-year contender in the future?

We'll keep an eye on movement.  I suspect the Red Sox-Rays series this weekend forces one of them into the "sell" mode.  I think the Reds need to turn it around or...and the Phillies, well, they may not wake up.  Welcome to Philadelphia fandom, again, for another generation.  Remember, this is what it was like between Mike Schmidt and the five-year run they started in the mid-00s.

Tiger & Jack & the Majors

So, like many, I have just spent some part of the last four days both watching Rory McIlroy show us what the future of golf looks like and watching to see if Tiger Woods can resurrect the recent past and give the ghost of Jack Nicklaus a chase.

He couldn't.

One of ESPN's golf commentators just pointed out (it's "common knowledge") that Tiger is now, for the first time, behind Jack in the pursuit of 18 majors.  Jack won his 15th at an age a month earlier than Tiger's current age.  Remember (I do) Jack's last at age 46?  Pure muscle memory and reflex.

The problem is, I don't think Tiger has any muscle memory anymore.  Yes, he probably remembers the shots he hit, and how, to win.  But he's not that Tiger.  He's on his third swing (I'm not going to act like I understand the technicalities) change.  So what muscle memory does he have?

I know this: he and I neither can put our driver in play effectively.  I watched Friday as he hit more than one driver (what he hit on Friday) and hit it all over the yard.  The one hole he pulled what I do often enough -- hit the first OB on the right and then in the rubbish was left with the second.

More than one analyst has pointed out he can't do that and hope to compete with guys like McIlroy, who was bombing it 350 down the middle with his driver.  Even Tiger's 300 yard drive on 18 with his 3 wood pales in comparison to what McIlroy, Adam Scott, Sergio, Dustin Johnson do regularly.

There are other missing parts.

He doesn't make the putts he used to.  As one of ESPN's on-air voices said "he used to make a couple 30 footers a round."  He doesn't anymore.  It's the difference between being 6 over and being 2 under.  Add eliminating drivers OB or in a gorse bush (the Saturday spray) and you are getting close to a contender.

Here's the other thing: his body.

Yes, I'd like to have his body.  He's sculpted.  But his swing has always been full of torque and violence and the injuries from pre-2008 and since have all been about that torque -- he stresses everything from his achilles through the knee up into the back with that swing.   No less of an expert than my physical therapist says that he'll never avoid injury again with that swing -- something else will break down sooner rather than later.

So, as for catching Jack, I will repeat what many before me have said: winning 5 majors after you are 38 (Tiger's age) has never been done, with the exception of Ben Hogan, the late bloomer.  5 majors is Phil Mickelson's career.  In other words, you have to have Phil's Hall of Fame career AFTER you are 38 to catch Jack.

It was never certain. But now it looks terribly unlikely he can get there.  Can he/will he win another major?  Probably.  Like Jack at 46, you can imagine he'll catch magic in the bottle again.  Maybe a couple more times.  But 5?   Unlikely.

But it won't keep any of us from watching.  It's fascinating to see the changes in the perception, and the game, of the greatest golfer of this generation, the greatest since Nicklaus and one of the handful of greatest to ever touch a club.

But he's no longer THAT Tiger Woods.  And that's still fascinating.

March Madness/FF/Bracket Billions...My picks -- Sunday morning (Day 4)

It's Sunday morning.  Been up two nights late, watching Madness.  Go Huskies!

You can see below that 3 of my Final Four have advanced to the Sweet 16, and Arizona plays today Gonzaga -- a surprise winner over Oke State.  fivethirtyeight.com has them at 73% for winning that game.   So, I'm feelin' all right about the overall tournament.

Specifically, my bracket is busted for the billion dollar bracket -- so is everyone's -- and was with the first game (Ohio State losing to Dayton? Who knew?).

But I'm in good shape in my pool on ESPN (you know every one of these sites scores differently), just 20 points behind the leader with as many points left as anybody in my pool (or rather JG's pool).  Having won last year, I have low expectations (who wins back-to-back years?), but it's good to be "live".

Connecticut winning last night helped.  I had them (as you can see below), and that moved me up.  Others had Villanova, a good portion with them winning the next game, too.  Shabazz showed 'em.

In survivor, I'm still alive, too.  Today I have Kansas against a 10-seed Stanford team.  Even without Embiid I think the Jayhawks advance.  fivethirtyeight has them at 79%.  If I had been gutsy, I would have gone with Tennessee, but I'm not that gutsy.

Today, I see nothing to change where I thought I was in my original picks -- I've only lost Duke out of the 8 coming out today.   Iowa State might be in trouble without their starting center and leading scorer.  North Carolina is good; they might be good enough to move on.  Ruins my bracket (some) but I still don't they they can beat either Virginia or Michigan State is the Elite 8.

That's it.  Back at you, maybe Thursday...or Friday...or Saturday.

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I know you've been wondering...

So, here it is.

I have decided to keep it simple.  So, here is my Final Four:

E: Michigan St
S: Florida
W: Arizona
MW: Louisville.

I have Florida winning the championship over Louisville.

My 5-12 pick (everyone has at least one) is SF Austin over VCU.  I have a friend, Chris, who's a grad.  It seems as good a reason as any.

Here's my sweet 16:

E: Michigan St, Connecticut, Virginia, Iowa St
S: Florida, UCLA, Syracuse,  Kansas (chalk)
W: Arizona, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin
MW: Louisville, Wichita St, Duke, Michigan (chalk).

As you can see, my biggest "upset" is Connecticut, a 7 seed making through to the 16.  I think Villanova, despite their record, is a very weak 2 & they are a major donut team (lots around the edges, no center) & Napier will beat them.  It won't be the only surprise, but it's the one I "see."

Baylor, a 6 seed, is an upset, too -- but after the way they played through the Big 12 tourney, and with their big man (Austin), guards and coach (Scott Drew) they have what it takes to win in the tournament.

Obviously, I like the B12 and B10 -- 4 and 3 in the S16 respectively.  I pay respect to the power conferences.

ACC was down this year, though I've got 3 of them in S16, too.  None in FF.

I have looked at rankings, etc, and Nate Silver at ESPN (he seems to think Louisville wins again).

And, if you missed it, all five ESPN analysts Sunday night picked Michigan St to win.

Given they haven't been together all season, I think that's tough.  Having watched them over the weekend in the B10 tourney, they look good, really good.

And remember for several years only tournament winners have ended up winning the championship.

I can't pick Louisville to repeat.  They aren't that good; they aren't the same team as a year ago; who wins back-to-back? Not them.

But they beat Arizona in the one semifinal.  They have talent, but not Louisville's experience.  Not clear if Arizona can score against Louisville's D.

Florida's offense is a problem.  But I think they have enough to beat Michigan St.  Look at the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers -- Florida's 13.5 on D looks a lot better than Sparty's 7.7 on O.  And, of course, when you combine both, Florida is #3 in the country -- behind Louisville and Arizona (my other two finalists).

I won my money pool last year.  I put in for the billion dollar bracket. I don't imagine I will win any of it, though I hope one of several people who have told me I get a million if they win the billion.

Good luck to you all.  May we have 63 good games.

Four weeks from Selection Sunday

Four weeks from selection Sunday.

Where are we?

Everyone seems to be on board with Arizona, Kansas, and Florida, especially after last night's win in Lexington.  Less so Syracuse, despite their undefeated record.

Supposedly it's either the Big Ten or the Big 12 (remember, of course, the now standard joke that the Big 10 has 12 teams and the Big 12 10 -- academics, you know) as the best conference in the country, which explains why Wisconsin beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and Nebraska beat Michigan State in Lansing (or it was a bad day in Michigan) won today.

But it's time to start thinking brackets.

First rule of brackets: don't pay so much attention to rounds one and two.

Yeah, everyone is into picking that surprise winner, but most brackets -- ESPN, Yahoo, CBSsports -- give only one point for those, then progressively more (2, 4, 8, 16, 32), so picking the final game is more important than picking those others.  Of course, to win a bracket pool, you need to do more than just pick one team through to the finals -- remember two years ago when everyone had Kentucky and they won?

I'd say right now that I'd like Syracuse, Arizona, and Florida.  I don't believe in Kansas.  Right now I'd go Duke -- but with both Michigan teams in waiting.  Let's see who plays well these last weeks, who wins the Big 10 title, then the tournament.

The Big 12?  Let's see if Kansas really gets through it all as their top team.  Oklahoma State, the early season favorite to unseat them, has come apart.  Texas looks like their biggest nemesis, though Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma have good teams.  In fact, right now, the only team you want to play in the Big 12 is TCU.

Duke is the #2 out of the once powerful ACC -- with the number one and four Big East teams 'cuse and Pitt.  UVa is a great story, but unless they win the tournament, I won't have them winning more than 2 games.

The former Big East?  Cincinnati might be a sleeper; Louisville, the defending champion (thank you, thank you, for winning me my brackets last year), is #13 in the country but no one is acting like they are serious contenders.

Let's not forget Kentucky.

And Wichita State went to the Final Four and is undefeated.  Don't count them out.

We "talk" more in the coming weeks on match ups, etc.

But now, for two weeks, I have to start looking at horses.  The Gotham is in 13 days and I have no idea who will run and be favorite (I need a horse named after a singing group like Hansen two years ago), or even, given this winter, what kind of day it will be.  Won't keep me from trying to find a way to cash tickets, just sayin'.

After yesterday's Purdue demolition of archrival IU, I can only finish (for Dbrolaw, Hoosier lover) "Boiler Up." #

Big Ten Bubble Watch: Dbrolaw watching Hoosiers with Hope

The Super Bowl is over.  Let me say -- figured defense would beat offense (again!) -- and it did.  Peyton looked bad.  The Seattle defense looked bad (and in a good way).  And Russell Wilson was magic.

Now it's time to think of March Madness.

The Big Ten is, by everyone's reckoning, the best conference in the country.  Both Bracket Brad & Joe Lunardi have 6 B10 teams making the tournament.

But IU's not one of them, yet.

Bracket Brad has them on the bubble looking in.

They are 4-5 in the Big 10, 14-8 overall.  Their RPI is 64th & they have quality wins over Wisconsin and Michigan (both at home).  For the second half of the B10 season, they have a series of winnable games, with Penn St, Northwestern, Nebraska & Purdue on the schedule.  With another upset -- say at Minnesota, or at home v. Ohio St -- they'd be 9-9 in the toughest conference in the country.  They'd need an opening round win in the B10 tourney in Indy, practically home court advantage.

I wish my Boilers were in that kind of shape. I was at yesterday's loss in State College, a debacle of bad play.  Too many turnovers; no one to stretch the defense (2-7 from trey?); sloppy switching defense, leading to lots of layups.  Ugly.

They needed that game.  Now 3-6 in the B10, they had an outside chance if they could beat the same teams on IU's list.  But having lost to Northwestern, though in OT, and now Penn State, it looks like they belong in something like the 10th slot in the B10.

So, we'll watch.  And hope for some quality wins.

My current F4:  Michigan St (assuming they are healthy), Arizona (assuming they are the West #1), Duke and Florida.

NFL Championship Week: Picking Confidently (as in Confidence)

Weary readers,

I have to admit to being disappointed with last week's "action" (in terms of confidence picking) in the Divisional Round.  It's a commonplace that Wild Card Weekend is the closest one, and this turned out to be true, with great games in Philly, Indy, & Green Bay.

The spreads in the Div Round were wide -- more than a touchdown to start in 3 of 4 games.  The Niners-Panthers were pick 'em by some lines at some points, but in my playoff confidence group, only one person put points on the Panthers.  Not exactly wide divergence.  Lots of people in my pool (including me, JG, and the famed Dbrolaw) picked every game right last weekend.  Ho hum.  Not a lot of separation and makes for tough strategy going into the penultimate weekend.

I have 9,6, & 1 left to play.

This week, unlike last, I've already gotten "Skittles" -- you know, the rainbow of opinion.  The Seahawks are about a FG fav and the Broncos almost a TD (depending on the line and movement).  Interestingly, the over/under on 'Chickens game is 40ish, Broncos is 55ish.  Two different kinds of games.

But I've heard and read experts picking the dog to win -- in short, the Niners are the better team (see wideouts and TE) & in the AFC game, there's all this MOJO -- Peyton doesn't win enough in playoffs and Brady and Belichick do.

If I was in first place, I'd put my 9 & 6 on the Seahawks and Broncos, in that order.

But I'm not. I need at least one game where I pick differently than those above me (I'm currently in 6th, 8 points behind, but with more left than most) and win to jump up.

So, on Tuesday, I'm tempted to go dog-dog.  It's not a horrid pick.  No one thinks BOTH favs will win, necessarily (it just rarely works that way and it'd be the two 1 seeds making the Super Bowl -- look up how often THAT happens), so a risk is worth taking.

Knowing the famed Dbrolaw (which I'm not) caveat: when trying to find the upset, if you pick wrong, that means you got two games wrong, not one (the upset you missed and the upset you picked incorrectly).  So, it's all or nothing.

Of course, I could save the 9 for the Super Bowl -- thinking of the combinations, which game would you want to weigh so heavily? -- but that's probably crazy.

Today, I'm on Pats 9, Niners 6 (it's the bigger bang)...but ask me again Sunday morning. :)